Global Analysis - November 2016


Maps and Time Series

Temperature and Precipitation Maps

Temperature Anomalies Time Series



Introduction

Temperature anomalies and percentiles are shown on the gridded maps below. The anomaly map on the left is a product of a merged land surface temperature (Global Historical Climatology Network, GHCN) and sea surface temperature (ERSST.v4) anomaly analysis as described in Huang et al. (2016). Temperature anomalies for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis. For more information, please visit NCEI's Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page. The percentile map on the right provides additional information by placing the temperature anomaly observed for a specific place and time period into historical perspective, showing how the most current month, season or year compares with the past.


Supplemental November 2016 Information


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Temperatures

In the atmosphere, 500-millibar height pressure anomalies correlate well with temperatures at the Earth's surface. The average position of the upper-level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure—depicted by positive and negative 500-millibar height anomalies on the November 2016 height and anomaly mapNovember 2016 and September - November 2016 height and anomaly mapSeptember–November 2016 maps—is generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively.

November

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for November 2016 was the fifth highest for November in the 137-year period of record, at 0.73°C (1.31°F) above the 20th century average of 12.9°C (55.2°F). This value is 0.23°C (0.41°F) cooler than the record warmth of 2015 but 0.05°C (0.09°F) higher than the average November value for the 21st century to-date (2001–2016).

The average global temperature across land surfaces was 0.95°C (1.71°F) above the 20th century average of 5.9°C (42.6°F)—the 12th highest November global land temperature on record.

Warmer- to much-warmer-than-average conditions were present across much of the world's land surfaces, with striking differences apparent between North America and Eurasia, particularly in the higher latitudes. Record warmth was observed across parts of central and southeastern Canada, where temperatures were at least 5°C (9°F) above the 1981–2010 average in many places, some areas across the far northern tier of the United States along with a portion of the southwest, parts of western and southern Mexico, sections of eastern and west central Africa, and regions of some southeastern Asia island nations, according to the Land & Ocean Temperature Percentiles map above. Cooler-than-average conditions were observed across much of the central Eurasian continent, with monthly temperatures at least 5°C (9°F) below average in central Russia and parts of northeastern Asia. In South America, central Bolivia experienced record cold temperatures during November.

Select national information is highlighted below. Please note that different countries report anomalies with respect to different base periods. The information provided here is based directly upon these data:

  • The mean temperature for November across Australia as a whole was 0.55°C (0.99°F) higher than the 1961–1990 average, with the minimum and maximum temperatures 0.10°C (0.18°F) and 1.00°C (1.80°F) higher than average, respectively. No state or territory had mean, minimum, or maximum temperatures among their 10 warmest or 10 coldest for the month.
  • The November temperature for the United Kingdom ranked in the coolest third among all years in its series dating back to 1910, at 1.3°C (2.3°F) below the 1981–2010 average. This was also the coolest November for the UK since 2010. The coolest region was Scotland, where the average temperature was 1.6°C (2.9°F) below average.
  • Sweden, Austria, and Germany all had temperatures close to normal for November. However, there were some wide swings. In Sweden, for example, a very cold period during the 2nd–13th was followed a by a very warm period during the 15th–23rd.
  • France was also near average for November, reporting a national temperature that was 0.3°C (0.5°F) above its 1981–2010 average.
  • In eastern Canada, Ontario experienced overall above-average temperatures for November, largely due to a very warm first half, when temperatures were more representative of September as opposed to November. Temperatures in the northern region of the province were 10°–20°C (18°–36°F) above average for this period. Across the province and average for the month, temperatures ranged from 1° to 7°C (2° to 13°F) above average, with the higher anomalies in northern Ontario.
  • Iceland also observed a warmer-than-normal November. Temperatures at reported stations ranged from 1.6° to 3.5°C (2.9° to 6.3°F) above their respective 1961–1990 averages and higher than their averages of the past decade.

For the oceans, the November globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 0.65°C (1.17°F) above the 20th century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F), the second highest for November on record, but considerably lower than the record high of 2015 by 0.19°C (0.34°F).

Record warmth was present across various areas of the Pacific, particularly notable in the southwest, part of the western equatorial Atlantic north of Venezuela, the North Atlantic waters near Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, and part of the Greenland Sea in the Arctic. Cooler-than-average conditions were observed in parts of the North and eastern South Pacific, along with the equatorial waters where ENSO conditions are monitored, a region of the Atlantic south of Greenland, which has been cooler than average for around three years, a section of the Scotia Sea near the Antarctic Peninsula, and a section of the Indian Ocean off the tip of southwestern Australia.

La Niña conditions were present during November 2016. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is favored during January–March 2017. This forecast focuses on the ocean surface temperatures between 5°N and 5°S latitude and 170°W to 120°W longitude, called the Niño 3.4 region.

November Anomaly Rank
(out of 137 years)
Records
°C °F Year(s) °C °F
Global
Land +0.95 ± 0.21 +1.71 ± 0.38 Warmest 12ᵗʰ 2010 +1.60 +2.88
Coolest 126ᵗʰ 1892 -1.04 -1.87
Ocean +0.65 ± 0.15 +1.17 ± 0.27 Warmest 2ⁿᵈ 2015 +0.84 +1.51
Coolest 136ᵗʰ 1909 -0.47 -0.85
Land and Ocean +0.73 ± 0.15 +1.31 ± 0.27 Warmest 5ᵗʰ 2015 +0.96 +1.73
Coolest 133ʳᵈ 1907 -0.51 -0.92
Northern Hemisphere
Land +1.01 ± 0.20 +1.82 ± 0.36 Warmest 12ᵗʰ 2010 +2.02 +3.64
Coolest 126ᵗʰ 1892 -1.31 -2.36
Ocean +0.77 ± 0.14 +1.39 ± 0.25 Warmest 2ⁿᵈ 2015 +1.04 +1.87
Coolest 136ᵗʰ 1909 -0.51 -0.92
Land and Ocean +0.86 ± 0.17 +1.55 ± 0.31 Warmest 7ᵗʰ 2015 +1.15 +2.07
Coolest 131ˢᵗ 1892 -0.83 -1.49
Southern Hemisphere
Land +0.78 ± 0.15 +1.40 ± 0.27 Warmest 13ᵗʰ 2009 +1.20 +2.16
Coolest 125ᵗʰ 1917 -0.79 -1.42
Ties: 1987, 2002
Ocean +0.56 ± 0.15 +1.01 ± 0.27 Warmest 4ᵗʰ 2015 +0.70 +1.26
Coolest 134ᵗʰ 1924 -0.50 -0.90
Ties: 2013, 2014
Land and Ocean +0.60 ± 0.15 +1.08 ± 0.27 Warmest 6ᵗʰ 2015 +0.77 +1.39
Coolest 132ⁿᵈ 1924 -0.52 -0.94
Ties: 2013

The most current data can be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

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Seasonal (September–November)

The September–November seasonal global land and ocean temperature was 0.77°C (1.39°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F)—the second highest temperature departure from average for September–November in the 1880–2016 record, but still 0.18°C (0.32°F) cooler than the record warmth of 2015.

The globally-averaged temperature across land surfaces for September–November was the eighth highest on record for the season, at 0.97°C (1.75°F) above the 20th century average of 9.1°C (48.3°F). Across the world's oceans, the September–November average sea surface temperature was 0.70°C (1.26°F) above the 20th century average of 16.0°C (60.7°F)—the second highest for September–November on record, trailing the record warmth of 2015 by 0.14°C (0.26°F).

The three-month period was characterized by warmer- to much-warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the global land and ocean surfaces. Record warmth was notable across large portions of North America, northern Far East Russia, parts of central western and central eastern Africa, and parts of the western equatorial and southern Pacific Ocean. No land areas observed record cold temperatures for the September–November period, although parts of central Siberia, eastern Asia, and the Indian Ocean waters off the tip of southwestern Australia were much cooler than average. According to NCEI's Global Regional analysis, the September–November period was warmest on record for North America and second warmest on record for Africa, behind only 2015, in the 107-year continental record.

Select national information is highlighted below. (Please note that different countries report anomalies with respect to different base periods. The information provided here is based directly upon these data):

  • The mean temperature for austral spring in Australia was equal to its 1961–1990 average, with the mean minimum temperature just 0.05°C (0.09°F) below average and the mean maximum temperature just 0.05°C (0.09°F) above average. For the season, Tasmania reported its ninth highest minimum temperature on records. Otherwise, no state or territory had a seasonal mean, minimum, or maximum temperature that ranked among their 10 warmest or coolest.
  • With a September that tied for record warm, a near-average October, and its coolest November since 2010, the overall autumn season was near-normal for the United Kingdom, at 0.3°C (0.5°F) higher than its 1981–2010 average temperature.
  • The average autumn temperature across Austria was 0.8°C (1.4°F) higher than its 1981–2010 average, making this season one of the 20 warmest autumns in the country's 250-year national record.
  • Although November was relatively cool for Sweden, the average temperature for the autumn season overall ranged from 0.5° to 1.5°C (0.9° to 2.7°F) above average the 1981–2010 average.
  • France reported an average autumn temperature that was 0.6°C (1.1°F) higher than its 1981–2010 national average.

September–November Anomaly Rank
(out of 137 years)
Records
°C °F Year(s) °C °F
Global
Land +0.97 ± 0.20 +1.75 ± 0.36 Warmest 8ᵗʰ 2015 +1.25 +2.25
Coolest 130ᵗʰ 1912 -0.76 -1.37
Ocean +0.70 ± 0.15 +1.26 ± 0.27 Warmest 2ⁿᵈ 2015 +0.84 +1.51
Coolest 136ᵗʰ 1909 -0.46 -0.83
Land and Ocean +0.77 ± 0.15 +1.39 ± 0.27 Warmest 2ⁿᵈ 2015 +0.95 +1.71
Coolest 136ᵗʰ 1912 -0.48 -0.86
Northern Hemisphere
Land +1.06 ± 0.18 +1.91 ± 0.32 Warmest 5ᵗʰ 2005 +1.32 +2.38
Coolest 133ʳᵈ 1912 -0.94 -1.69
Ocean +0.83 ± 0.15 +1.49 ± 0.27 Warmest 3ʳᵈ 2015 +1.05 +1.89
Coolest 135ᵗʰ 1909 -0.51 -0.92
Land and Ocean +0.92 ± 0.16 +1.66 ± 0.29 Warmest 2ⁿᵈ 2015 +1.13 +2.03
Coolest 136ᵗʰ 1912 -0.66 -1.19
Southern Hemisphere
Land +0.75 ± 0.15 +1.35 ± 0.27 Warmest 15ᵗʰ 2015 +1.21 +2.18
Coolest 123ʳᵈ 1905 -0.58 -1.04
Ocean +0.60 ± 0.15 +1.08 ± 0.27 Warmest 2ⁿᵈ 2015 +0.69 +1.24
Coolest 136ᵗʰ 1924 -0.42 -0.76
Land and Ocean +0.62 ± 0.15 +1.12 ± 0.27 Warmest 6ᵗʰ 2015 +0.77 +1.39
Coolest 132ⁿᵈ 1924 -0.43 -0.77

The most current data can be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

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Year-to-date (January–November)

With only one month left in the year, the 2016 year-to-date global temperature (January–November) was the highest on record for this period, at 0.94°C (1.69°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.2°F). This value exceeded the previous record set in 2015 by 0.07°C (0.13°F). Unless the December global temperature is 0.25°C (0.41°F) or less above the 20th century monthly average, 2016 will at least tie 2015 as the warmest year in the 137-year record. The last month for which the departure from average was that low was November 2000.

Much-warmer-than-average conditions engulfed the vast majority of the world's land surfaces, resulting in a record warm January–November period, at 1.43°C (2.57°F) above the 20th century average, besting the previous record set in 2015 by 0.16°C (0.29°F). Record warmth for the year-to-date was present across Alaska, much of western Canada, parts of the northern and eastern United States, much of Central America and northern South America, various regions across Africa, parts of northern and southern Asia, much of southeast Asia island nations, and parts of Australia, especially along the northern and eastern coasts. According to NCEI's Global Regional analysis, all six continents had at least a top four warm January–November period, with North America experiencing its highest January–November average temperature since continental records began in 1910.

The average global sea surface temperature for the year-to-date was the highest in the 137-year record, at 0.76°C (1.37°F) above average, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.03°C (0.05°F). Record high average sea surface temperatures for the January–November period were present across the northern Pacific waters near Alaska, the Bering Sea, parts of the southern and western Pacific, a long swath of the western Atlantic stretching to the Gulf of Mexico, parts of the southern and eastern Indian Ocean extending across the waters of the southeastern Asia island nations and Oceania. The only ocean area with record cold temperatures was east of the Drake Passage near the Antarctic Peninsula.

January–November Anomaly Rank
(out of 137 years)
Records
°C °F Year(s) °C °F
Global
Land +1.43 ± 0.16 +2.57 ± 0.29 Warmest 1ˢᵗ 2016 +1.43 +2.57
Coolest 137ᵗʰ 1883 -0.63 -1.13
Ocean +0.76 ± 0.17 +1.37 ± 0.31 Warmest 1ˢᵗ 2016 +0.76 +1.37
Coolest 137ᵗʰ 1911 -0.46 -0.83
Land and Ocean +0.94 ± 0.16 +1.69 ± 0.29 Warmest 1ˢᵗ 2016 +0.94 +1.69
Coolest 137ᵗʰ 1908, 1911 -0.45 -0.81
Northern Hemisphere
Land +1.58 ± 0.18 +2.84 ± 0.32 Warmest 1ˢᵗ 2016 +1.58 +2.84
Coolest 137ᵗʰ 1884 -0.75 -1.35
Ocean +0.86 ± 0.17 +1.55 ± 0.31 Warmest 1ˢᵗ 2015, 2016 +0.86 +1.55
Coolest 137ᵗʰ 1904, 1908, 1909 -0.48 -0.86
Ties: 2015
Land and Ocean +1.13 ± 0.16 +2.03 ± 0.29 Warmest 1ˢᵗ 2016 +1.13 +2.03
Coolest 137ᵗʰ 1908 -0.48 -0.86
Southern Hemisphere
Land +1.04 ± 0.13 +1.87 ± 0.23 Warmest 1ˢᵗ 2016 +1.04 +1.87
Coolest 137ᵗʰ 1917 -0.64 -1.15
Ocean +0.69 ± 0.17 +1.24 ± 0.31 Warmest 1ˢᵗ 2016 +0.69 +1.24
Coolest 137ᵗʰ 1911 -0.46 -0.83
Land and Ocean +0.75 ± 0.16 +1.35 ± 0.29 Warmest 1ˢᵗ 2016 +0.75 +1.35
Coolest 137ᵗʰ 1911 -0.48 -0.86

The most current data can be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

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Precipitation

November

The maps below represent precipitation percent of normal (left, using a base period of 1961–1990) and precipitation percentiles (right, using the period of record) based on the GHCN dataset of land surface stations. As is typical, precipitation anomalies during November 2016 varied significantly around the world. November precipitation generally was drier than normal across areas of western South America, northern Africa, parts of the western and southeastern United States, Pakistan, southern India, and areas of southwestern Australia. Wetter-than-normal conditions were notable across parts of central and southeastern Asia, New Zealand, the Caribbean, and northern South America.

Select national information is highlighted below. (Please note that different countries report anomalies with respect to different base periods. The information provided here is based directly upon these data):

  • Several low pressure systems impacted New Zealand during November, bringing copious rainfall to some areas. Wellington observed its wettest November in its 89-year record, with surrounding areas also reporting near-record high monthly precipitation totals.

Seasonal (September–November)

As is typical, precipitation anomalies during September–November 2016 varied significantly around the world. During September–November 2016, above-average seasonal precipitation was observed across the northern United States, parts of Argentina, southeastern Europe, Mongolia, and several regions across eastern Asia. Drier-than-average conditions were notable across the southeastern United States, various regions of South America, particularly in the north, central Siberia, part of Japan, and southern India.

  • Following its second wettest winter on record, rainfall across Australia for austral spring was 127 percent of its 1961–1990 average for the season, although precipitation did vary greatly over the country. Both Victoria and Tasmania reported their 10th highest spring totals in the 117-year record. Western Australia rainfall was 79 percent of normal.
  • Due in part to a very dry October, total rainfall for the autumn season in the United Kingdom was 74 percent of its 1981–2010 average. This is the lowest amount since 2008 and ranked the bottom 25 percent among all such periods in the series dating back to 1910.

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References

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Citing This Report

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for November 2016, published online December 2016, retrieved on January 22, 2017 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201611.