Global Analysis - September 2016
2016 year-to-date temperatures versus previous years

« Global Analysis - September 2016


2016 year-to-date temperatures versus previous years


This graphic compares the year-to-date temperature anomalies for 2016 (black line) to what were ultimately the seven warmest years on record: 2015, 2014, 2010, 2013, 2005, 2009, and 1998. Each month along each trace represents the year-to-date average temperature anomaly. In other words, the January value is the January average temperature anomaly, the February value is the average anomaly of both January and February, and so on. The average global land and ocean surface temperature for January–September 2016 was 0.99°C (1.78°F) above the 20th century average of 14.1°C (57.5°F)—the highest global land and ocean temperature for January–September in the 1880–2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.13°C (0.23°F).

The anomalies themselves represent departures from the 20th century average temperature. The graph zooms into the warmest part of the entire history. The graph includes several end-of-year results based on the following two scenarios:

  • If each month from October through December matches the 1998 monthly values (represented by the black triangles): 2016 would become the second warmest year on record, behind 2015 by 0.03°C (0.05°F).
  • If each month from October through December matches the 21st century monthly average (represented by the black circles): 2016 would become the warmest year on record, surpassing 2015 by 0.01°C (0.02°F).

2016 year-to-date anomalies through September compared to seven warmest years on record
Global Year-to-Date Temperature Anomalies