000 AXGM70 PGUM 280307 DGTGUM PMZ181-120200- MAJURO- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1245 PM CHST THU SEP 28 2017 ...FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS FINALLY GETTING NEEDED RAINFALL RELIEF..FINAL DROUGHT STATEMENT... SYNOPSIS...ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OR WILL GIVE WAY TO LA NINA OR LA NINA-LIKE CONDITIONS DURING THE LAST THREE MONTHS OF THE YEAR. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A LA NINA WATCH INDICATING THAT LA NINA CONDITIONS COULD SOON DEVELOP AND LAST AT LEAST FIVE CONSECUTIVE MONTHS. SINCE THE EVENT WILL LIKELY BE WEAK OR MODERATE...THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE RATHER MINOR. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS...BUT SHOULD VACILLATE BETWEEN WEAK AND MODERATE INTENSITIES THROUGH THE FALL. SHORT PERIODS OF MONSOON WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY AFFECT WESTERN MICRONESIA AND BRIEFLY PENETRATE INTO CENTRAL MICRONESIA IN EARLY TO MID OCTOBER. THE LAST EPISODE AFFECTED THE MARIANA ISLANDS DURING 8-10 SEPTEMBER AND IT WAS WEAK. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED RECENTLY BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY AT UTIRIK. THE DEVELOPMENT AND WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) HAS PERSISTED AND CONTINUES TO INDUCE AREAS OF PERIODIC CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS THAT UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS REMAINS AT SHORT- TERM AND LONG-TERM EXTREME DROUGHT STATUS (DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4). ENEWETAK...AILUK AND OTHER ISLANDS NORTH OF 10N ARE LIKELY AT THE SAME EXTREME DROUGHT LEVEL. ALL OF THESE ARE IMPROVING. WOTJE AND NEARBY ATOLLS HAVE IMPROVED TO A RATING OF D-NOTHING. KWAJALEIN RECEIVED 5.60 INCHES OF RAIN ON 10 SEPTEMBER. KWAJALEIN AND NEARBY ATOLLS REMAIN IN A RATING OF D-NOTHING. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... MARSHALL ISLANDS... FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS... SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE LAST FEW WEEKS SHOWED PERIODS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND MORE PERSISTENT TRADE- WIND SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N SUCH AS UTIRIK... RONGELAP... BIKINI...AILUK...AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND SHOULD SEE IMPROVED RAINFALL IN OCTOBER. CLIMATE SUMMARY... COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INDICATE THAT CURRENT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS COULD TRANSITION TO LA NINA CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. CLIMATE MODELS ARE FAVORING THIS TRANSITION...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE NEARLY EQUAL FOR REMAINING IN THE ENSO-NEUTRAL PATTERN. SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS... AUG (1-30) SEP SEP SEP % (1-27) NORMAL NORMAL WOTJE 1.26 12.11 6.27 193 UTIRIK 4.59 3.80 8.83 43 AILINGALAPLAP 6.20 9.28 8.78 106 JALUIT 5.22 6.68 8.77 76 MAJURO 13.00 19.71 10.83 182 KWAJALEIN/EBEYE 6.28 20.90 9.80 213 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL JUL % (1-31) NORMAL WOTJE 0.08 4.48 0.99 5.23 1.14 8.86 5.55 124 UTIRIK 0.63 MSG MSG TRACE 1.38 1.60 1.74 36 AILINGALAPLAP 12.75 7.39 7.76 9.82 2.82 9.45 7.91 70 JALUIT 9.94 13.50 11.23 9.58 2.33 5.41 8.56 73 MAJURO 17.65 7.59 13.07 10.36 4.93 13.03 12.52 105 KWAJALEIN/EBEYE 9.00 5.60 1.07 3.44 5.20 10.80 6.91 68 PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE SUN IS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NOW. THUS...A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MODERATE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. EVAPORATION CAUSED BY TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD ALSO HELP OFFSET AND MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES. THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO... COMPUTER MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE 5-DAY AND 10-DAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH ONE MODEL INDICATING AS MUCH AS 100 PERCENT MORE RAIN THAN THE OTHER. RAINFALL FOR AREAS NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE (ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK) IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT ONE INCH THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. RAINFALL SOUTH OF 10 NORTH (BUT NORTH OF 8N)KWAJALEIN TO AILINGALAPLAP TO WOTJE) SHOULD BE ABOUT 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND FROM 1.75 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MAJURO AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS SHOULD RECEIVE 2.0 TO 3.0 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...THE CORAL BLEACH WARNING AREA OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREA. THE AREA FROM GUAM TO SAIPAN STILL REMAINS AT THE HIGHEST ALERT LEVEL (2). NORTHERN CHUUK AND YAP STATESS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO ALERT LEVEL 2. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FINAL DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...NWS WFO GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM ...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AT MAJURO AND AT WENO CHUUK...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES...THE NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING... WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472- 0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) GUARD/W. AYDLETT $$