You are here

Climate Forecast System (CFS)

An animation of CFSR global atmospheric precipitable water for March 1–15, 1993, in 12-hourly intervals

An animated image of CFSR global atmospheric precipitable water for March 1–15, 1993, in 12-hourly intervals. (One-hourly CFSR data was down-sampled to every 12 hours to keep image size down.) This image was produced with the Grid Analysis and Display System and ImageMagick.

The Climate Forecast System (CFS) is a model representing the global interaction between Earth's oceans, land, and atmosphere. Produced by several dozen scientists under guidance from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), this model offers hourly data with a horizontal resolution down to one-half of a degree (approximately 56 km) around Earth for many variables. CFS uses the latest scientific approaches for taking in, or assimilating, observations from data sources including surface observations, upper air balloon observations, aircraft observations, and satellite observations.

Historical model data are available in near–real time at NCEI. Real-time CFS model data are available on NCEP servers on the CFS 7-day rotating archive.

More...

Reanalysis and Reforecasting

The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was an effort to generate a uniform, continuous, and best-estimate record of the state of the ocean–atmosphere interaction for use in climate monitoring and diagnostics. The reanalysis method kept the model’s software constant and ran the model retrospectively from January 1979 through March 2011.

A global plot of CFSR near-surface winds on March 12, 1993, at 00 UTC. This image was produced by downloading a subset of CFSR data through the NOMADS THREDDS Data Server then visualizing with NASA’s Panoply visualization tool.

In addition to the reanalysis efforts, the CFS model was used to generate a reforecast of past weather forecasts. Reforecasts help scientists better understand the model's ability to produce accurate weather forecasts. The CFS reforecasts were initialized with CFSR data, which were the best estimate of initial conditions from the assimilation of observational data into the CFS model. Reforecast predictions start in mid-December of 1981. CFS reforecast data were used to generate calibration climatologies for use with the operational CFS version 2 (CFSv2) forecasts of seasonal weather. Together, the CFSR and the CFS reforecast data are known as the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR).

The operational CFSv2 analysis and forecasts continue the dataset from April 2011 to present.

Quick Links to Main Product Types

Product Type Product Period of Record Domain Product Format(s)
CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) 01Jan1979 - 31Mar2011 Global GRIB2, BUFR
CFS Reforecasts 12Dec1981-31Mar2011 and 01Jan1999-31Mar2011 Global GRIB2
CFSRR Calibration Climatologies 1982-2010 and 1999-2010 Global GRIB2
CFSv2 Operational Analysis 01Apr2011 - Present Global GRIB2, BUFR
CFSv2 Operational Forecasts 01Apr2011 - Present Global GRIB2

Product Types

CFS Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR)

CFS Reanalysis (CFSR)

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was designed and executed as a global, high-resolution, coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface-sea ice system to provide the best estimate of the state of these coupled domains over the 32-year period of record from January 1979 to March 2011. It has been extended as an operational real-time product.

"The CFSR data was developed by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The data for this study are from NOAA's National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS), which is maintained at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)."

CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) Time Series and Monthly Means
Product Grid/Scale Period of Record Model Cycle Output Timestep Data Access Links
Time Series Lat/Lon: 0.5°, 1.0°, 2.5°; Gaussian: T382, T62 01Jan1979 - 31Mar2011 Monthly Hourly, full month FTP HTTP TDS
Monthly Means Lat/Lon: 0.5°, 1.0°, 2.5°; Gaussian: T382, T62 01Jan1979 - 31Mar2011 Monthly: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC +00, +01, +02, +03, +04, +05, +06 FTP HTTP TDS
CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) 6-Hourly Products
Product Grid/Scale Period of Record Model Cycle Output Timestep Data Access Links
6-Hourly 3-D Diabatic Heating Data (DIAB) Lat/Lon: 1.0° 01Jan1979 - 31Mar2011 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC +01, +02, +03, +04, +05, +06, +09 HTTP TDS
6-Hourly Surface and Radiative Fluxes (FLX) Gaussian: T382 01Jan1979 - 31Mar2011 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC +00, +01, +02, +03, +04, +05, +06, +09 HTTP TDS
6-Hourly Low-Resolution Data Lat/Lon: 1.0°, 2.5°; Gaussian: T62 01Jan1979 - 31Mar2011 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC +00, +01, +02, +03, +04, +05, +06, +09 HTTP TDS
6-Hourly 3-D Isentropic Level (IPV) Lat/Lon: 0.5° 01Jan1979 - 31Mar2011 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC +00, +01, +02, +03, +04, +05, +06, +09 HTTP TDS
6-Hourly 3-D Ocean Data (OCN) Lat/Lon: 0.5° 01Jan1979 - 31Mar2011 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC +00, +01, +02, +03, +04, +05, +06, +09 HTTP TDS
6-Hourly 3-D Pressure Level Data (PGB) Lat/Lon: 0.5° 01Jan1979 - 31Mar2011 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC +00, +01, +02, +03, +04, +05, +06, +09 HTTP TDS
CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) Initial Conditions
Product Grid/Scale Period of Record Model Cycle Data Access Links
High Resolution Initial Conditions (HIC) Various 01Jan1979 - 31Mar2011 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC HTTP
Low Resolution Initial Conditions (LIC) Various 01Jan1979 - 31Mar2011 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC HTTP
Full Ingest Data (dumps) Various 01Jan1979 - 31Mar2011 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC HTTP

CFS Reforecasts

Description

A complete reforecast of CFS, over the 29-year period (1982–2011) has been created in order to provide stable calibration and skill estimates of the new system, for operational seasonal and sub-seasonal prediction at NCEP. Coupled full 9-month forecasts from initial conditions every 5 days apart (for all four cycles on that day) have been made for each calendar year with the T126L64 GFS with half-hourly coupling to the ocean (MOM4 at 1/4° equatorial, 1/2° global). The total number of 9-month forecasts is 73x4 for each year. In addition to the 9-month runs, there is a full season run from every 00Z cycle over a 12-year period (1999–2011). There is also a short 45-day forecast from every 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z cycle over the same 12-year period (1999–2011).

CFS Reforecast "First-Look" Time Series and Monthly Means
Product Grid/Scale Period of Record Model Cycle Output Timestep Data Access Links
Monthly Means of Daily Averages Various 01Jan1984-31Dec2009 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z cycles, 1 out of 5 days Monthly, out ~9 months HTTP TDS
Monthly Mean Time Series of Select Variables Various 01Jan1999-31Dec2009 Full POR Monthly, out full POR HTTP TDS
6-Hourly Time Series from 45-Day and Seasonal Runs Various 01Jan1999-31Dec2009 00Z cycle, 4 out of 5 days for 45-day runs; 06Z, 12Z, 18Z cycles; 4 out of 5 days for seasonal runs 6-Hourly, out ~45 days or ~3 months HTTP TDS
6-Hourly Time Series from 9-Month Runs Various 12Dec1981-31Mar2011 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z cycles, 1 out of 5 days 6-Hourly, out ~9 months HTTP TDS
CFS Reforecast "High-Priority" Subset
Product Grid/Scale Period of Record Model Cycle Output Timestep Data Access Links
Monthly Means from 9-Month Runs Various 12Dec1981-31Mar2011 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z cycles, 1 out of 5 days Monthly, 00, 06, 12, and 18UTC; out ~9 months HTTP TDS
Monthly Means from Seasonal Runs Various 01Jan1999-31Mar2011 00Z cycle, 4 out of 5 days Monthly, 00, 06, 12, and 18UTC; out ~3 months HTTP TDS
Time Series from 45-Day and Seasonal Runs Various 01Jan1999-31Mar2011 06Z, 12Z, 18Z cycles; 4 out of 5 days 6-Hourly, out ~45 days or ~3 months HTTP TDS
Time Series from 9-Month Runs Various 12Dec1981-31Mar2011 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z cycles, 1 out of 5 days 6-Hourly, out ~9 months HTTP TDS

*Note (10May2016): "CFS Reforecast 6-Hourly PGBF and FLXF" data are currently being ingested/archived at NCEI. Links to product data in the table below are not serially complete.

CFS Reforecast 6-Hourly PGBF and FLXF (1982-2011 and 1999-2011)
Product Grid/Scale Period of Record Model Cycle Output Timestep Data Access Links
45-Day Runs of FLXF Gaussian: T384 01Jan1999-31Mar2011 06Z, 12Z, 18Z cycles; 4 out of 5 days 6-Hourly: +00, +06, +12,...out 45 days  
45-Day Runs of PGBF Lat/Lon: 0.5° 01Jan1999-31Mar2011 06Z, 12Z, 18Z cycles; 4 out of 5 days 6-Hourly: +00, +06, +12,...out 45 days HTTP TDS
90-Day Runs of FLXF Gaussian: T384 01Jan1999-31Mar2011 00Z cycle, 4 out of 5 days 6-Hourly: +00, +06, +12,...out ~3 months HTTP TDS
90-Day Runs of PGBF Lat/Lon: 0.5° 01Jan1999-31Mar2011 00Z cycle, 4 out of 5 days 6-Hourly: +00, +06, +12,...out ~3 months HTTP TDS
9-Month Runs of FLXF Gaussian: T384 12Dec1981-31Mar2011 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z cycles, 1 out of 5 days 6-Hourly: +00, +06, +12,...out ~6 months HTTP TDS
9-Month Runs of PGBF Lat/Lon: 0.5° 12Dec1981-31Mar2011 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z cycles, 1 out of 5 days 6-Hourly: +00, +06, +12,...out ~6 months HTTP TDS

CFSRR Calibration Climatologies*

*Note (13Jul2015): "CFSRR Calibration Climatologies" data are currently being ingested/archived at NCEI. Links to product data in the tables below are not serially complete.

CFS Reanalysis Calibration Climatologies
Product Period of Record Data Access Links
Monthly Means: Mean and Standard Deviation 1982-2010 and 1999-2010  
Time Series: Mean for All Variables 1982-2010  
Time Series: Standard Deviation for All Variables 1982-2010  
Time Series: Mean for All Variables 1999-2010  
Time Series: Standard Deviation for All Variables 1999-2010  
CFS Reforecast Calibration Climatologies
Product Period of Record Data Access Links
9-Month Runs: FLXF Mean and Standard Deviation 1982-2010 and 1999-2010  
9-Month Runs: IPVF Mean and Standard Deviation 1982-2010 and 1999-2010  
9-Month Runs: OCNF Mean and Standard Deviation 1982-2010 and 1999-2010 HTTP TDS
9-Month Runs: OCNH Mean and Standard Deviation 1982-2010 and 1999-2010  
9-Month Runs: PGBF Mean and Standard Deviation 1982-2010 and 1999-2010 HTTP TDS
9-Month Runs Time Series: Mean and Standard Deviation by Variable 1982-2010 and 1999-2010  
45 and 90-Day Runs Time Series: Mean by Variable 1999-2010  
45 and 90-Day Runs Time Series: Standard Deviation by Variable 1999-2010  

CFSv2 Operational*

*With regard to "operational," NCEI/NOMADS historical model data are available in near–real time. Real-time CFS model data are available on NCEP servers on the CFS 7-day rotating archive.

CFSv2 Operational Analysis*

*Note (15Jan2016): "CFSv2 Operational Analysis" data are currently being ingested/archived at NCEI. Links to product data in the tables below are not serially complete. Ingest/archive of 2015 data is expected to be complete by the end of June 2016.

CFSv2 Operational Analysis Time Series and Monthly Means
Product Grid/Scale Period of Record Output Timestep Data Access Links
Time Series Various 01Apr2011 - Present Hourly, full month HTTP TDS
Monthly Means Energetics (EGY) Various 01Apr2011 - Present +00, +01, +02, +03, +04, +05, +06 HTTP TDS
Monthly Means Fluxes (FLX) Various 01Apr2011 - Present +00, +01, +02, +03, +04, +05, +06 HTTP TDS
Monthly Means Isentropic (IPV) Various 01Apr2011 - Present +00, +01, +02, +03, +04, +05, +06 HTTP TDS
Monthly Means Ocean (OCN) Various 01Apr2011 - Present +01, +02, +03, +04, +05, +06 HTTP TDS
Monthly Means Pressure (PGB) Various 01Apr2011 - Present +00, +01, +02, +03, +04, +05, +06 HTTP TDS
CFSv2 Operational Analysis 6-Hourly Products
Product Grid/Scale Period of Record Model Cycle Output Timestep Data Access Links
6-Hourly Surface and Radiative Fluxes (FLX) Gaussian: T574 01Apr2011 - Present 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC +00, +01, +02, +03, +04, +05, +06, +09 HTTP TDS
6-Hourly Low-Resolution Data Gaussian: T62; Lat/Lon: 1.0°, 2.5° 01Apr2011 - Present 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC +00, +01, +02, +03, +04, +05, +06, +09 HTTP TDS
6-Hourly 3-D Isentropic Level Data (IPV) Lat/Lon: 0.5° 01Apr2011 - Present 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC +00, +01, +02, +03, +04, +05, +06, +09 HTTP TDS
6-Hourly 3-D Ocean Data (OCN) Lat/Lon: 0.5° 01Apr2011 - Present 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC +00, +01, +02, +03, +04, +05, +06, +09 HTTP TDS
6-Hourly 3-D Pressure Level Data (PGB) Lat/Lon: 0.5° 01Apr2011 - Present 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC +00, +01, +02, +03, +04, +05, +06, +09 HTTP TDS
CFSv2 Operational Analysis Initial Conditions
Product Grid/Scale Period of Record Model Cycle Data Access Links
High Resolution Initial Conditions (HIC) Various 01Apr2011 - 31Dec2014 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC HTTP
Low Resolution Initial Conditions (LIC) Various 01Apr2011 - Present 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC HTTP
Full Ingest Data (dumps) Various 01Apr2011 - 31Dec2014 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC HTTP

CFSv2 Operational Forecasts*

*Note (15Jan2016): "CFSv2 Operational Forecasts" data are currently being ingested/archived at NCEI. Links to product data in the tables below are not serially complete. Ingest/archive of 2015 data is expected to be complete by the end of June 2016.

CFSv2 Operational Forecasts Time Series and Monthly Means
Product Grid/Scale Period of Record Model Cycle Output Timestep Data Access Links
9-Month Forecasts: Time Series Various 01Apr2011 - Present 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC Hourly, out ~9 months HTTP TDS
9-Month Forecasts: Monthly Means Various 01Apr2011 - Present 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC Monthly, 00, 06, 12, and 18UTC; out ~9 months HTTP TDS
CFSv2 Operational Forecasts 6-Hourly Products
Product Grid/Scale Period of Record Model Cycle Output Timestep Data Access Links
9-Month Forecasts: 6-Hourly Surface and Radiative Fluxes (FLX) Gaussian: T126 01Apr2011 - Present 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC 6-Hourly: +00, +06, +12,...out ~6 months HTTP TDS
9-Month Forecasts: 6-Hourly 3D Isentropic Level Data (IPV) Lat/Lon: 0.5° 01Apr2011 - Present 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC 6-Hourly: +00, +06, +12,...out ~6 months HTTP TDS
9-Month Forecasts: 6-Hourly 3D Ocean Data (OCN) Lat/Lon: 0.5° 01Apr2011 - Present 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC 6-Hourly: +00, +06, +12,...out ~6 months HTTP TDS
9-Month Forecasts: 6-Hourly 3D Pressure Level Data (PGB) Lat/Lon: 0.5° 01Apr2011 - Present 4/day: 00, 06, 12, 18UTC 6-Hourly: +00, +06, +12,...out ~6 months HTTP TDS

Data Usage Notes

02Dec2011

NCEI and NCEP have identified that the "High-Priority Reforecast" datasets are roughly 99% serially complete at this time and may contain isolated damaged files.

01Aug2011

Known CFSRR data issues are explained in the August 2011 CFSRR Known Issues Technical Document.

18Feb2010

Notice to users who downloaded CFSR time series data prior to 22:00 UTC February 18, 2010:

A format conversion issue was verified affecting the metadata in non-instantaneous CFSR time series files (28 of the 73 file types affected are listed below). The issue, triggered during the conversion process between GRIB1 to GRIB2 by NCEP (to facilitate transmission and storage), caused the non-instantaneous fields (00-01, 01-02, 02-03 hr statistical) to appear instantaneous (00-00, 01-01, 02-02 hr statistical) when decoded. At 22:00 UTC February 18, 2010, NCEI will begin bringing corrected versions of these files online. Users who have already downloaded these files are encouraged to re-download these files on/after Friday, February 19, otherwise be aware of these facts when using your existing copy. If you improvise the metadata, the data itself is valid. The issue affects the following time series file types (28):

dlwsfc dswsfc gflux lhtfl ocndt20c ocnheat ocnmld ocnsal15 ocnsal5 ocnslh ocnsst ocnt15 ocnu15 ocnu5 ocnv15 ocnv5 ocnvv55 prate runoff shtfl snohf tmax tmin ulwsfc ulwtoa uswsfc uswtoa wndstrs

Publication References

Please reference the following article when using the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) data:

Saha, S., S. Moorthi, H. Pan, X. Wu, J. Wang, and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91, 1015–1057, doi:10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1.

Please reference the following article when using the CFS Reforecast model or data:

Saha, S., ;S. Moorthi, X. Wu, J. Wang, and Coauthors, 2014: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2. Journal of Climate, 27, 2185–2208, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1.

Miscellaneous Documentation

CFSR Abstract

CFSR Hourly Timeseries

Links

NCEP CFSv2 Home Page

NCEP CFSR Home Page