El Niño (La Niña) is a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a five consecutive 3-month running mean of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region that is above (below) the threshold of +0.5°C (-0.5°C). This standard of measure is known as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).
Historically, scientists have classified the intensity of El Niño based on SST anomalies exceeding a pre-selected threshold in a certain region of the equatorial Pacific. The most commonly used region is the Niño 3.4 region, and the most commonly used threshold is a positive SST departure from normal greater than or equal to +0.5°C. Since this region encompasses the western half of the equatorial cold tongue region, it provides a good measure of important changes in SST and SST gradients that result in changes in the pattern of deep tropical convection and atmospheric circulation. The criteria, that is often used to classify El Niño episodes, is that five consecutive 3-month running mean SST anomalies exceed the threshold.
Studies have shown that a necessary condition for the development and persistence of deep convection (enhanced cloudiness and precipitation) in the Tropics is that the local SST be 28°C or greater. Once the pattern of deep convection has been altered due to anomalous SSTs, the tropical and subtropical atmospheric circulation adjusts to the new pattern of tropical heating, resulting in anomalous patterns of precipitation and temperature that extend well beyond the region of the equatorial Pacific. An SST anomaly of +0.5°C in the Niño 3.4 region is sufficient to reach this threshold from late March to mid-June. During the remainder of the year a larger SST anomaly, up to +1.5°C in November-December-January, is required in order to reach the threshold to support persistent deep convection in that region.
Warm and cold phases are defined as a minimum of five consecutive 3-month running mean of SST anomalies (ERSST.v3, 1971-2000 base period) in the Niño 3.4 region surpassing a threshold of +/- 0.5°C.
| OND | NDJ | DJF | JFM | FMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.0°C -1.8°F | -1.0°C -1.8°F | -0.9°C -1.6°F | -0.7°C -1.3°F | -0.5°C -0.9°F |
| Month | Niño 1+2 | Niño 3 | Niño 4 | Niño 3.4 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temp | Anom | Temp | Anom | Temp | Anom | Temp | Anom | |
| December 2011 | 21.85°C | -0.96°C | 24.20°C | -0.94°C | 27.39°C | -1.10°C | 25.53°C | -1.04°C |
| 71.33°F | -1.73°F | 75.56°F | -1.69°F | 81.30°F | -1.98°F | 77.95°F | -1.87°F | |
| January 2012 | 23.88°C | -0.64°C | 24.90°C | -0.73°C | 27.09°C | -1.21°C | 25.49°C | -1.08°C |
| 74.98°F | -1.15°F | 76.82°F | -1.31°F | 80.76°F | -2.18°F | 77.88°F | -1.94°F | |
| February 2012 | 26.30°C | 0.16°C | 26.19°C | -0.18°C | 27.20°C | -0.90°C | 26.03°C | -0.69°C |
| 79.34°F | 0.29°F | 79.14°F | -0.32°F | 80.96°F | -1.62°F | 78.85°F | -1.24°F | |
| March 2012 | 26.91°C | 0.27°C | 26.92°C | -0.21°C | 27.53°C | -0.66°C | 26.63°C | -0.58°C |
| 80.44°F | 0.49°F | 80.46°F | -0.38°F | 81.55°F | -1.19°F | 79.93°F | -1.04°F | |
| April 2012 | 26.90°C | 1.30°C | 27.58°C | 0.08°C | 28.16°C | -0.34°C | 27.38°C | -0.39°C |
| 80.42°F | 2.34°F | 81.64°F | 0.14°F | 82.69°F | -0.61°F | 81.28°F | -0.70°F | |
| Apr - Mar Difference |
-0.01°C | 1.03°C | 0.66°C | 0.29°C | 0.63°C | 0.32°C | 0.75°C | 0.19°C |
| -0.02°F | 1.85°F | 1.19°F | 0.52°F | 1.13°F | 0.58°F | 1.35°F | 0.34°F | |
SST values in the Niño 3.4 region may not be the best choice for determining La Niña episodes but, for consistency, the index has been defined by negative anomalies in this area. A better choice might be the Niño 4 region, since that region normally has SSTs at or above the threshold for deep convection throughout the year. An SST anomaly of -0.5°C in that region would be sufficient to bring water temperatures below the 28°C threshold, which would result in a significant westward shift in the pattern of deep convection in the tropical Pacific.
Sea surface temperature anomalies were calculated using the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 3 (ERSST.v3).
For sea surface temperature maps and animations, visit our TAO/Triton Sea Temperatures and SST Anomalies pages. For more information on El Niño and La Niña, please visit NOAA's El Niño information website.
For all climate questions, please contact the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Services and Monitoring Division:
Climate Services and Monitoring Division
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst.php
