Significant Historical ENSO Events

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Climatic Data Center

Overview

The impact of ENSO events is generally related to the strength and duration of the event. While most of the El Niño and La Niña events over the past several hundred years have been weak to moderate, there have been some notable exceptions as are described below. Comprehensive sea surface temperature measurements in the equatorial Pacific Ocean since 1950 have allowed us to accurately quantify ENSO strength and develop scientific comparsions between events.

In addition, research on paleoclimate proxy data (Climate information from before the invention of atmospheric monitoring instruments. This information is derived from known chemical and bioliogical indicators in layers of glacial ice, corals, sea floor sediments, tree rings, etc.) reveals that strong ENSO events may have occurred early in the Holocene (The current geological epoch, beginning about 10,000 years before the present.) (Carré, 2005). Brian Fagan, in his 1999 book "Floods, Famines and Emporers: El Niño and the Fate of Civilizations" speculates that El Niño may also have played a factor in the disappearance of the Moche (A pre-Colombian civilization in northern Peru that existed from about 100 to 800 A.D.) and other Peruvian pre-Colombian (Referring to South and Central America in the period of time before European influence.) civilizations.

Over the past 300 or so years, there have been several major El Niño) and La Niña) events: 1789-93, 1876-78, 1891, 1925-26, 1954-56, 1972-73, 1973-76, 1982-83, 1988-89, and 1997-98.

Significant Events

1789 – 1793 El Niño

This strong El Niño event is indicated as a associated factor in the widespread crop failures in Europe during this period. Resulting food shortages and famine may have exacerbated the political turmoil that instigated the French Revolution of 1789. In recently colonized Australia, an El Niño related drought dried up the Tank Stream that provided water for the Sydney settlement, nearly ending colonization efforts. Major droughts were also reported in the year preceding this El Niño in southern and eastern Africa, parts of India, and Mexico. (Grove, 1988).

1876 – 1878 El Niño

The "Great Famine of 1876 – 1878" was strongly associated with a severe, long–lasting El Niño related drought across India, China, Brazil, and much of Africa. It is estimated that from six to over ten million people may have perished due to starvation during this El Niño event. However, critics place much of the blame for these deaths on colonial governance practices of the time (Davis, 2001).

1891 El Niño

Some of the earliest references to the term "El Niño". Widespread flooding and fatalities in Peru, along with outbreaks of Malaria and Cholera reported.