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Note: Beginning in December 2010, all data are reported here with respect to the 1981–2010 base period. Prior to December 2010, radiosonde data were reported with respect to the 1961–1990 base period and satellite data were reported with respect to the 1979–1998 base period. Remote Sensing Systems continues to provide data to NCDC with respect to the 1979–1998 base period; however, NCDC readjusts the data to the 1981–2010 base period so that the satellite measurements are comparable. This change provides a more consistent comparison between the various datasets.
Note: Effective with the January 2011 report, Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) transitioned to a new version (3.3) of the RSS MSU/AMSU atmospheric temperature datasets. Information about the differences between version 3.2 and 3.3 is available.
During the past century, global surface temperatures have increased at a rate near 0.08°C/decade (0.14°F/decade), but this trend has increased to a rate of approximately 0.17°C/decade (0.31°F/decade) during the past 30 years. There have been two sustained periods of warming, one beginning around 1910 and ending around 1945, and the most recent beginning about 1976. Temperatures during the latter period of warming have increased at a rate comparable to the rates of warming projected to occur during the next century with continued increases of anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
Temperature measurements have also been made above the Earth's surface over the past 54 years using balloon-borne instruments (radiosondes) and for the past 33 years using satellites. These measurements support the analyses of trends and variability in the troposphere (surface to 10-16 km) and stratosphere (10-50 km above the earth's surface).
The best source of upper air in-situ measurements for studying global temperature trends above the surface is the Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC) dataset.
Data collected and averaged between the 850–300 mb levels (approximately 5,000 to 30,000 feet above the surface) indicate that 1958–2011 global temperature trends in the middle troposphere are similar to trends in surface temperature; 0.13°C/decade (0.23°F/decade) for surface and 0.15°C/decade (0.27°F/decade) for mid-troposphere. Since 1976, mid-troposphere temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.17°C/decade (0.31°F/decade). For 2011, global mid-troposphere temperatures were 0.34°C (0.61°F) above the 1971–2000 mean—the ninth warmest on record.
Since 1979, NOAA's polar orbiting satellite measurements have also been used to measure temperatures in the troposphere and stratosphere. Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) data are analyzed for NOAA by the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), Remote Sensing Systems (RSS, Santa Rosa, California) and the University of Washington (UW). These observations show that the global average temperature in the middle troposphere (the layer which is centered at an altitude of 2 to 6 miles, but which includes the lower stratosphere) has increased, though differing analysis techniques have yielded similar but different trends (see below).
In all cases these trends are positive. The analysis performed by RSS reveals a trend of 0.08°C/decade (0.15°F/decade) while the UAH analysis reveals a lower trend of 0.05°C/decade (0.09°F/decade). When adjusted by University of Washington scientists to remove the stratospheric influences from the RSS and UAH mid-troposphere average, the trends increase to 0.14°C/decade (0.25°F/decade) and 0.11°C/decade (0.20°F/decade), respectively. (A journal article is available that describes the University of Washington adjustments to remove the stratospheric influence from mid-troposphere averages.) Trends in these MSU time series are similar to the trend in global surface temperatures, which increased at a rate near 0.15°C/decade (0.28°F/decade) during the same 33-year period.
While middle tropospheric temperatures reveal an increasing trend over the last three decades, stratospheric temperatures (14 to 22 km / 9 to 14 miles above the surface) have been below average since the warming effects from the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption dissipated in 1993. January-December 2011 was the 18th consecutive year with below-average temperatures (an anomaly of -0.41°C/-0.74°F), tied with 2000 as the third coolest year on record. The below-average stratospheric temperatures are consistent with the depletion of ozone in the lower stratosphere and the effects of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The large temperature increase in 1982 is attributed to the volcanic eruption of El Chichon, and the increase in 1991 was associated with the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines.
| January– December |
Anomaly | Rank (out of 33 years) |
Record Years | Trend/Decade | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| °C | °F | Year | °C | °F | °C | °F | ||
| UAH | +0.15 | +0.27 | 25th Coolest | Coolest: 1984 | -0.35 | -0.63 | +0.14 | +0.25 |
| 9th Warmest | Warmest: 1998 | +0.43 | +0.77 | |||||
| RSS | +0.05 | +0.09 | 22nd Coolest | Coolest: 1985 | -0.36 | -0.65 | +0.14 | +0.25 |
| 12th Warmest | Warmest: 1998 | +0.45 | +0.81 | |||||
| January– December |
Anomaly | Rank (out of 33 years) |
Record Years | Trend/Decade | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| °C | °F | Year | °C | °F | °C | °F | ||
| UAH | 0.00 | 0.00 | 16th Coolest | Coolest: 1984 | -0.24 | -0.43 | +0.05 | +0.09 |
| 18th Warmest | Warmest: 1998 | +0.42 | +0.76 | |||||
| RSS | -0.01 | -0.02 | 16th Coolest | Coolest: 1985 | -0.29 | -0.52 | +0.08 | +0.15 |
| 16th Warmest | Warmest: 1998 | +0.43 | +0.77 | |||||
| UW-UAH | +0.08 | +0.14 | 24th Coolest | Coolest: 1984 | -0.32 | -0.58 | +0.11 | +0.20 |
| 10th Warmest | Warmest: 1998 | +0.52 | +0.94 | |||||
| UW-RSS | +0.07 | +0.13 | 23rd Coolest | Coolest: 1985, 1984 | -0.32 | -0.58 | +0.14 | +0.25 |
| 11th Warmest | Warmest: 1998 | +0.51 | +0.92 | |||||
| January– December |
Anomaly | Rank (out of 33 years) |
Record Years | Trend/Decade | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| °C | °F | Year | °C | °F | °C | °F | ||
| UAH | -0.41 | -0.74 | 3rd Coolest | Coolest: 2008 | -0.48 | -0.86 | -0.38 | -0.69 |
| 30th Warmest | Warmest: 1982 | +1.04 | +1.87 | |||||
| RSS | -0.35 | -0.63 | 3rd Coolest | Coolest: 2008 | -0.40 | -0.72 | -0.30 | -0.54 |
| 31st Warmest | Warmest: 1992 | +0.96 | +1.73 | |||||
Temperatures above the Earth's surface are measured within the lower troposphere, middle troposphere, and stratosphere using in-situ balloon-borne instruments (radiosondes) and polar-orbiting satellites (NOAA's TIROS-N). The radiosonde and satellite records have been adjusted to remove time-dependent biases (artificialities caused by changes in radiosonde instruments and measurement practices as well as changes in satellite instruments and orbital features through time). Global averages from radiosonde data are available from 1958 to present, while satellite measurements date back to 1979.
The mid-troposphere temperatures are centered in the in the atmospheric layer approximately 3–10 km [2–6 miles] above the Earth's surface, which also includes a portion of the lower stratosphere. (The Microwave Sounding Unit [MSU] channel used to measure mid-tropospheric temperatures receives about 25 percent of its signal above 10 km [6 miles].) Because the stratosphere has cooled due to increasing greenhouse gases in the troposphere and losses of ozone in the stratosphere, the stratospheric contribution to the tropospheric average, as measured from satellites, creates an artificial component of cooling to the mid-troposphere temperatures. The University of Washington (UW) versions of the UAH and RSS analyses attempt to remove the stratospheric influence from the mid-troposphere measurements, and as a result the UW versions tend to have a larger warming trend than either the UAH or RSS versions. For additional information, please see NCDC's Microwave Sounding Unit page.
The radiosonde data used in this global analysis were developed using the Lanzante, Klein, Seidel (2003) ("LKS") bias-adjusted dataset and the First Difference Method (Free et al. 2004) (RATPAC). Additional details are available. Satellite data have been adjusted by the Global Hydrology and Climate Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). An independent analysis is also performed by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) and a third analysis has been performed by Dr. Qiang Fu of the University of Washington (UW) (Fu et al. 2004)** to remove the influence of the stratosphere on the mid-troposphere value. Global averages from radiosonde data are available from 1958 to present, while satellite measurements began in 1979.
For questions on technical or scientific content of this report, please contact:
Jessica Blunden:For general climate monitoring questions, please contact:
CMB.Contact@noaa.govFor climate data orders, please contact the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Services and Monitoring Division:
NCDC.Orders@noaa.gov
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/index.php
