October 2015 Tropical Cyclones Report

North Atlantic

October marks a continuation of a record-long major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) landfall drought in the United States. The last major hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. was Wilma on October 24, 2005. This major hurricane drought surpassed the length of the eight-years from 1861-1868 when no major hurricane struck the United States' coast. On average, a major hurricane makes landfall in the U.S. about once every three years. The reliable record of landfalling hurricanes in the U.S. dates back to 1851.

Satellite Image of Joaquin - Oct. 3
Source: NWS

During the first five days of October, a strong upper level low pressure system moved into the Southeast as Hurricane Joaquin moved from the Bahamas, parallel to the Southeast coast, and then out to sea passing by Bermuda. The two systems interacted, streaming deep tropical moisture into the Carolinas. Historic rainfall totals of 15-20 inches were widespread with localized totals greater than 25 inches around Charleston, South Carolina. The heavy rainfall caused record flooding across the region, including coastal flooding that was exacerbated by strong onshore flow and astronomical high tides. The flooding resulted in over 400 roads, including Interstate Highways, being closed and at least 16 fatalities. Although Joaquin did not directly cause the flooding as it remained several hundred miles off the coast, the interaction between the tropical and non-tropical systems was associated with the record flooding.

East Pacific

During the East Pacific hurricane season through October 31^st, there have been 14 tropical storms and hurricanes in the Central North Pacific portion of the basin (140°W-180°W), the most on record for this period. This year's 14 tropical systems included five tropical storms and three hurricanes that actually formed between 140°W and the International Date Line, as well as five hurricanes that originated in the Eastern North Pacific and moved into the Central North Pacific. This bested the previous record of 11 tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific in 1992 and 1994.

Satellite Image of Hurricane Patricia - Oct. 23
Source: NOAA's NNVL

Hurricane Patricia formed off the western coast of Mexico from a low pressure system on October 20^th. The precursor low had caused significant flooding across Central America on the 18^th and 19^th, with six fatalities reported due to flooding and landslides in Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. On the 20^th and 21^st, Patricia was slow to strengthen to a tropical storm over the open waters of the Pacific, but favorable environmental conditions led to an explosive intensification on the 22^nd. Patricia strengthened from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in 24 hours. The storm peaked in strength on the 23^rd with maximum sustained winds of 200 mph and a central minimum pressure of 879 mb, as measured by NOAA's Hurricane Hunters. Patricia was the most intense tropical cyclone recorded in terms of barometric pressure in the Western Hemisphere, besting the 882 mb observed during Wilma in 2005. Late on the 23^rd Patricia made landfall near Cuixmala, Mexico, a sparsely populated part of the country. At landfall Patricia had weakened with winds of 165 mph, still a Category 5 storm, marking only the second East Pacific hurricane to make landfall as a Category 5, with the other occurring in 1959. Given the strength of the storm, Patricia's damage was remarkably limited with no fatalities reported in Mexico. The largest impacts were losses to agriculture. As Patricia moved inland it quickly weakened to a remnant low on the 24^th after interacting with high terrain in western Mexico. Over the next few days the remnant low moved into the southern U.S. where significant flooding was observed across Texas and the Gulf Coast.

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