State of the Climate
Global Analysis
June 2007

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Climatic Data Center

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Global Highlights:

Based on preliminary data, globally averaged combined land and sea surface temperature was the second warmest on record for January-June year-to-date period and fourth warmest for June.
Global land surface temperature was third warmest on record in June. Temperatures were above average in Europe, eastern Brazil, northwestern Africa, and most of Asia and the contiguous U.S. Cooler-than-average conditions occurred in Australia, western Russia, and the southcentral U.S.
Precipitation during June 2007 was above average in the United Kingdom, southern India, eastern Australia, southcentral U.S., and parts of eastern Asia. Drier than average conditions were observed in southeastern Asia and parts of South America and the eastern U.S.
ENSO conditions remained in a neutral phase during June.

The data presented in this report are preliminary. Ranks and anomalies may change as more complete data are received and processed. The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

Introduction

Temperature anomalies for June 2007 are shown on the dot maps below. The dot map, below left, provides a spatial representation of anomalies calculated from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) data set of land surface stations using a 1961-1990 base period. The dot map, below right, is a product of a merged land surface and sea surface temperature anomaly analysis developed by Smith and Reynolds (2005). Temperature anomalies with respect to the 1961-1990 mean for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis. Additional information on this product is available.

Anomalously warm temperatures have covered much of the globe throughout the year. The January-June 2007 map of temperature anomalies shows the presence of warmer than average temperatures across all land areas, with the exception of Argentina. Warmer than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) occured in the equatorial Pacific, Atlantic and the Indian oceans. Cooler than average conditions were observed in the northeastern Pacific and some areas in the southern oceans.

During June, there were above average temperatures across Europe, eastern Brazil, northwestern Africa, and most of Asia and the contiguous U.S. Cooler-than-average conditions occurred in in Australia, Argentina, western Russia, and the southcentral U.S. Warmer than average SSTs occurred in the Atlantic Ocean, North Indian Ocean, and the western equatorial Pacific Ocean. SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region were representative of a neutral ENSO phase. Please see the latest ENSO discussion for additional information.

Current month's Land SurfaceTemperature Dot map

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Current month's blended Land and sea surface Temperature Dot map

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The mean position of upper level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure (depicted by positive and negative 500-millibar height anomalies on the June map) are generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively. For other Global products see the Climate Monitoring Global Products page.

Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all weeks during 2007 at the weekly SST page.

Temperature Rankings and Graphics

Effective with the February 2006 report, NCDC transitioned from the use of the Operational Global Surface Temperature Index (Quayle et al. 1999) to the blended land and ocean dataset developed by Smith and Reynolds (2005). The differences between the two methods are discussed in Smith et al. (2005).

June 2007 ranked as the fourth warmest June since records began in 1880 for combined global land and ocean surface temperatures. The June land surface temperature ranked third warmest on record, while the ocean surface temperature ranked eighth warmest in the 127-year record. For the January-June year-to-date period, the global surface temperature ranked second warmest, while the land ranked warmest on record.

Current Month / Year-to-date

June	Anomaly	Rank	Ties	Warmest (or Next Warmest) Year on Record
Global Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.84°C (+1.51°F) +0.44°C (+0.79°F) +0.55°C (+0.99°F)	3rd warmest 8th warmest 4th warmest		2005 (+0.98°C/1.76°F) 2005 (+0.53°C/0.95°F) 2005 (+0.65°C/1.17°F)
Northern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.93°C (+1.67°F) +0.47°C (+0.85°F) +0.64°C (+1.15°F)	2nd warmest 7th warmest 3rd warmest	2005 2002,1998	2006 (+1.08°C/1.94°F) 2005 (+0.62°C/1.12°F) 2005 (+0.74°C/1.33°F)
Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.59°C (+1.06°F) +0.43°C (+0.77°F) +0.45°C (+0.81°F)	12th warmest 8th warmest 8th warmest		2005 (+1.10°C/1.98°F) 1998 (+0.51°C/0.92°F) 2005 (+0.55°C/0.99°F)

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January-June	Anomaly	Rank	Ties	Warmest (or Next Warmest) Year on Record
Global Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+1.18°C (+2.12°F) +0.43°C (+0.77°F) +0.63°C (+1.13°F)	warmest 6th warmest 2nd warmest	2002	2002 (+1.08°C/1.94°F) 1998 (+0.53°C/0.95°F) 1998 (+0.64°C/1.15°F)
Northern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+1.38°C (+2.48°F) +0.45°C (+0.81°F) +0.80°C (+1.44°F)	warmest 4th warmest warmest		2002 (+1.26°C/2.27°F) 2005 (+0.51°C/0.92°F) 2002 (+0.74°C/1.33°F)
Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.61°C (+1.10°F) +0.42°C (+0.76°F) +0.45°C (+0.81°F)	4th warmest 8th warmest 5th warmest		2005 (+0.92°C/1.66°F) 1998 (+0.56°C/1.01°F) 1998 (+0.60°C/1.08°F)

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The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

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Precipitation

The maps below represent anomaly values based on the GHCN data set of land surface stations using a base period of 1961-1990. During June 2007, above average precipitation fell over areas that include the United Kingdom, southern India, eastern Australia, southcentral U.S., and parts of eastern Asia. Drier than average conditions were observed in southeastern Asia and parts of South America and the eastern U.S. Additional details on flooding and drought can also be found on the June Global Hazards page.

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ENSO SST Analysis

Last week of the month's ENSO condtions Map

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Sea Surface Temperature anomalies were near average across the central equatorial Pacific during June while below and above average anomalies were observed across the eastern and western equatorial Pacific, respectively. These conditions are indicative of a neutral ENSO phase (shown in the adjacent animation of weekly sea surface temperature anomalies). A comprehensive summary of June 2007 ENSO conditions can be found on the ENSO monitoring page. For the latest advisory on ENSO conditions go to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.
Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all weeks since 2003 at the weekly SST page.

Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent

According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent, which is measured from passive microwave instruments onboard NOAA satellites, was below the 1979-2000 mean, but greater than the previous two years. Sea ice extent for the month of June has decreased at a rate of 3.4%/decade (since satellite records began in 1979) as temperatures in the high latitude Northern Hemisphere have risen at a rate of approximately 0.37°C/decade over the same period. For further information on the Northern Hemisphere snow and ice conditions, please visit the NSIDC News page, provided by the NOAA's National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

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Troposphere

Temperatures above the Earth's surface are measured within the lower troposphere, middle troposhere, and stratosphere using in-situ balloon-borne instruments (radiosondes) and polar-orbiting satellites (NOAA's TIROS-N). The radiosonde and the satellite records have been adjusted to remove time-dependent biases (artificialities caused by changes in radiosonde instruments and measurement practices as well as changes in satellite instruments and orbital features through time).

Lower Troposphere
Current Month / Year-to-date

These temperatures are for the lowest 8km (5 miles) of the atmosphere. Information on the UAH and RSS sources of troposphere data is available.

June	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest (or Next Warmest) Year on Record	Trend
UAH low-trop	+0.22°C/0.40°F	5th warmest	1998 (+0.60°C/1.08°F)	+0.12°C/decade
*RSS low-trop	+0.14°C/0.25°F	9th warmest	1998 (+0.60°C/1.08°F)	+0.16°C/decade

*Version 03_0

January- June	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest (or Next Warmest) Year on Record	Trend
UAH low-trop	+0.33°C/0.59°F	4th warmest	1998 (+0.63°C/1.13°F)	+0.14°C/decade
*RSS low-trop	+0.23°C/0.41°F	7th warmest	1998 (+0.69°C/1.24°F)	+0.18°C/decade

*Version 03_0

Mid-Troposphere
Current Month / Year-to-date

These temperatures are for the atmospheric layer centered in the mid-troposphere (approximately 2-6 miles above the Earth's surface) which also includes a portion of the lower stratosphere. (The MSU channel used to measure mid-tropospheric temperatures receives about 25 percent of its signal above 6 miles). Because the stratosphere has cooled due to increasing greenhouse gases in the troposphere and losses of ozone in the stratosphere, the stratospheric contribution to the tropospheric average, as measured from satellites, may create an artificial component of cooling to the mid-troposphere temperatures. The University of Washington (UW) versions of the UAH and RSS analyses attempt to remove the stratospheric influence from the mid-troposphere measurements, and as a result the UW versions tend to have a larger warming trend than either the UAH or RSS versions. For additional information, please see NCDC's Microwave Sounding Unit page.

The radiosonde data used in this global analysis were developed using the Lanzante, Klein, Seidel (2003) ("LKS") bias-adjusted dataset and the First Difference Method (Free et al. 2004). Additional details are available. Satellite data have been adjusted by the Global Hydrology and Climate Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). An independent analysis is also performed by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) and a third analysis has been performed by Dr. Qiang Fu of the the University of Washington (UW) (Fu et al. 2004)** to remove the influence of the stratosphere on the mid-troposphere value. Global averages from radiosonde data are available from 1958 to present, while satellite measurements began in 1979.

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Radiosonde measurements indicate that for the January-June year-to-date period, temperatures in the mid-troposphere were +0.60°C (1.08°F) above average, which was the third warmest January-June since global measurements began in 1958. However, as shown in the table below, satellite measurements of the January-June year-to-date period for the middle troposphere varied from third to sixth warmest on record depending on the analysis method.

The global mid-troposphere temperatures were warmer than average in June 2007, as shown in the table below. Satellite measurements for June 2007 ranked sixth warmest with the exception of the RSS analysis method which ranked seventh warmest.

June	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest (or Next Warmest) Year on Record	Trend
UAH mid-trop	+0.11°C/0.20°F	6th warmest	1998 (+0.52°C/0.94°F)	+0.05°C/decade
*RSS mid-trop	+0.15°C/0.27°F	7th warmest	1998 (+0.57°C/1.03°F)	+0.10°C/decade
**UW-UAH mid-trop	+0.22°C/0.40°F	6th warmest	1998 (+0.63°C/1.13°F)	+0.10°C/decade
*UW-RSS mid-trop	+0.24°C/0.43°F	6th warmest	1998 (+0.67°C/1.21°F)	+0.15°C/decade

*Version 03_0

January- June	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest (or Next Warmest) Year on Record	Trend
UAH mid-trop	+0.18°C/+0.32°F	5th warmest	1998 (+0.57°C/1.03°F)	+0.05°C/decade
*RSS mid-trop	+0.25°C/0.45°F	6th warmest	1998 (+0.63°C/1.13°F)	+0.12°C/decade
**UW-UAH mid-trop	+0.29°C/+0.52°F	3rd warmest	1998 (+0.70°C/1.26°F)	+0.12°C/decade
*UW-RSS mid-trop	+0.34°C/+0.61°F	6th warmest	1998 (+0.75°C/1.35°F)	+0.18°C/decade
RATPAC	+0.60°C/1.08°F	3rd warmest	1998 (+0.81°C/1.46°F)	+0.15°C/decade

*Version 03_0

Stratosphere

Current Month

The table below summarizes stratospheric conditions for June 2007. On average, the stratosphere is located approximately between 10-14 miles above the Earth's surface. Over the last decade, stratospheric temperatures have been below average in part due to the depletion of ozone. The large positive anomaly in 1982 was caused by the volcanic eruption of El Chichon in Mexico, and the sharp jump in temperature in 1991 was a result of the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. In both cases the temperatures returned to pre-eruption levels within two years.

June	Anomaly	Rank	Coolest Year on Record
UAH stratosphere	-0.59°C (-1.06°F)	5th coolest	1996 (-0.74°C/-1.33°F)
*RSS stratosphere	-0.41°C (-0.74°F)	5th coolest	1996 (-0.61°C/-1.10°F)

*Version 03_0

For additional details on precipitation and temperatures in June, see the Global Hazards page.

References

Christy, John R., R.W. Spencer, and W.D. Braswell, 2000: MSU Tropospheric Temperatures: Dataset Construction and Radiosonde Comparisons. J. of Atmos. and Oceanic Technology 17 1153-1170.

Free M., D.J. Seidel, J.K. Angell, J. Lanzante, I. Durre and T.C. Peterson (2005) Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC): A new dataset of large-area anomaly time series, J. Geophys. Res., 10.1029/2005JD006169.

Free, M., J.K. Angell, I. Durre, J. Lanzante, T.C. Peterson and D.J. Seidel(2004), Using first differences to reduce inhomogeneity in radiosonde temperature datasets, J. Climate, 21, 4171-4179.

Fu, Q., C.M. Johanson, S.G. Warren, and D.J. Seidel, 2004: Contribution of stratospheric cooling to satellite-inferred tropospheric temperature trends. Nature, 429, 55-58.

Lanzante, J.R., S.A. Klein, and D.J. Seidel (2003a), Temporal homogenization of monthly radiosonde temperature data. Part I: Methodology, J. Climate, 16, 224 240.

Lanzante, J.R., S.A. Klein, and D.J. Seidel (2003b), Temporal homogenization of monthly radiosonde temperature data. Part II: Trends, sensitivities, and MSU comparison, J. Climate, 16, 241 262.

Mears, Carl A., M.C. Schabel, F.J. Wentz, 2003: A Reanalysis of the MSU Channel 2 Tropospheric Temperature Record. J. Clim 16, 3650-3664.

Peterson, T.C. and R.S. Vose, 1997: An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network Database. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2837-2849.

Quayle, R. G., T. C. Peterson, A. N. Basist, and C. S. Godfrey, 1999: An operational near-real-time global temperature index. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 333-335.

Smith, T. M., and R. W. Reynolds (2005), A global merged land air and sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880-1997), J. Clim., 18, 2021-2036.