State of the Climate
Global Analysis
July 2006

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Climatic Data Center

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Global Highlights:

Based on preliminary data, globally averaged combined land and sea surface temperature was third warmest on record for July 2006.
July temperatures were above average in Europe, the United States, and much of South America. Colder-than-average conditions occurred in far western Russia.
Precipitation during July was above average in India, most of southeast Asia and along the U.S. Gulf Coast, with drier-than-average conditions in the majority of eastern Europe, much of Brazil and the U.S. Southeast.
ENSO conditions remained neutral during July.

The data presented in this report are preliminary. Ranks and anomalies may change as more complete data are received and processed. The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

Introduction

Temperature anomalies for July 2006 are shown on the two maps below. The dot map on the left provides a spatial representation of anomalies calculated from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) data set of land surface stations using a 1961-1990 base period. The map on the right is a product of a merged land surface and sea surface temperature anomaly analysis which is based on data from the GHCN of land temperatures and the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) of Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) data. Temperature anomalies with respect to the 1961-1990 mean for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis. Additional information on this product is available.

During July, there were above average temperatures across the United States, Brazil, Chile, Europe, Siberia and parts of China. Cooler than average temperatures were observed primarily in far western Russia.

During January-July 2006, there were above average temperatures in the majority of North America, China and western Europe. Cooler than average temperatures were observed in Alaska, far eastern Europe, parts of Russia and western Australia.

In January-July and July, warmer than average SSTs occurred in the South Pacific and the North Atlantic. In January-July, cooler than average conditions were observed in the Niño 3.4 region, and the western coast of Australia. In July, cooler than average conditions were observed in the North Pacific and South Atlantic. Please see the latest ENSO discussion for further information.

Current month's Land SurfaceTemperature Dot map

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Current month's blended Land and sea surface Temperature Dot map

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The mean position of upper level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure (depicted by positive and negative 500 millibar height anomalies on the July, 2006 map) are generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively. For other Global products see the Climate Monitoring Global Products page.

Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all weeks during 2006 at the weekly SST page.

Temperature Rankings and Graphics

Effective with the January, 2006 report, NCDC transitioned from the use of the Operational Global Surface Temperature Index (Quayle et al. 1999) to the blended land and ocean dataset developed by Smith and Reynolds (2005). The differences between the two methods are discussed in Smith et al. 2005.

Current Month / Year-to-date

July	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest Year on Record
Global Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.88°C (+1.58°F) +0.45°C (+0.81°F) +0.56°C (+1.01°F)	3rd warmest 6th warmest 3rd warmest	1998 (+0.98°C/1.76°F) 1998 (+0.55°C/0.99°F) 1998 (+0.67°C/1.21°F)
Northern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.82°C (+1.48°F) +0.53°C (+0.95°F) +0.64°C (+1.15°F)	4th warmest 5th warmest 3rd warmest	1998 (+1.01°C/1.82°F) 2005 (+0.64°C/1.15°F) 2005 (+0.76°C/1.37°F)
Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+1.06°C (+1.91°F) +0.38°C (+0.68°F) +0.48°C (+0.86°F)	warmest 8th warmest 2nd warmest	2nd - 1984 (+0.97°C/1.75°F) 1998 (+0.57°C/1.03°F) 1998 (+0.62°C/1.12°F)

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January-July	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest Year on Record
Global Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.75°C (+1.35°F) +0.42°C (+0.76°F) +0.51°C (+0.92°F)	5th warmest 6th warmest 6th warmest	2002 (+1.05°C/1.89°F) 1998 (+0.53°C/0.95°F) 1998 (+0.65°C/1.17°F)
Northern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.84°C (+1.51°F) +0.41°C (+0.74°F) +0.57°C (+1.03°F)	5th warmest 6th warmest 5th warmest	2002 (+1.21°C/2.18°F) 2005 (+0.53°C/0.95°F) 2002 (+0.72°C/1.30°F)
Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.47°C (+0.85°F) +0.43°C (+0.77°F) +0.44°C (+0.79°F)	8th warmest 5th warmest 5th warmest	2005 (+0.91°C/1.64°F) 1998 (+0.56°C/1.01°F) 1998 (+0.60°C/1.08°F)

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The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

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Precipitation

The maps below represent anomaly values based on the GHCN data set of land surface stations using a base period of 1961-1990. During July, above average precipitation fell over areas that include Argentina, Chile, India, the majority of Southeast Asia, and in the U.S., the Great Lakes, Gulf Coast and Southwest regions. Heavy rain and flooding occurred in India, Turkey, Chile and across the Korean Peninsula. Below average precipitation was observed in areas including the U.S. Northern Plains, most of Brazil, southern India and much of Europe. Additional details on flooding and drought can also be found on the July Global Hazards page.

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ENSO SST Analysis

Last week of the month's ENSO condtions Map

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Sea Surface Temperatures increased across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean during July, but ENSO remained in a neutral state (shown in the adjacent animation of weekly sea surface temperature anomalies). A comprehensive summary of July 2006 ENSO conditions can be found on the ENSO monitoring page. For the latest advisory on ENSO conditions go to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all weeks during 2006 at the weekly SST page

Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent

Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent, as measured from passive microwave instruments onboard NOAA satellites, was the lowest for any July on record in 2006 at 8.7 million square kilometers (image to the right). The previous July low extent record was set in 2005 with 9.1 million square kilometers. This is 1.4 million square kilometers below the long-term (1979-2000) mean. For further information on Northern Hemisphere snow and ice cover during July, please see the Sea Ice Index, an in depth review provided by the NOAA's National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Monthly sea ice extent for the Northern Hemisphere

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Troposphere

Current Month
Mid-tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature data are collected by NOAA's TIROS-N polar-orbiting satellites and adjusted for time-dependent biases by the Global Hydrology and Climate Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). An independent analysis is also performed by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) and a third analysis has been performed by Dr. Qiang Fu of the the University of Washington (UW) (Fu et al. 2004)** to remove the influence of the stratosphere on the mid-troposphere value.

The table below summarizes mid-tropospheric conditions for July 2006. These temperatures are for the atmospheric layer centered in the mid-troposphere (approximately 2-6 miles above the Earth's surface) which also includes a portion of the lower stratosphere. (The MSU channel used to measure mid-tropospheric temperatures receives about 25 percent of its signal above 6 miles). For additional information on MSU data used in this report, please see the Microwave Sounding Unit page.

All datasets indicate July temperatures were above average. Records began in 1979.

July	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest Year on Record	Trend
UAH mid-trop	+0.39°C/0.70°F	2nd warmest	1998 (+0.47°C/0.85°F)	+0.09°C/decade
*RSS mid-trop	+0.37°C/0.67°F	3rd warmest	1998 (+0.54°C/0.97°F)	+0.15°C/decade
**UW-UAH mid-trop	+0.50°C/0.90°F	2nd warmest	1998 (+0.58°C/1.04°F)	+0.14°C/decade
*UW-RSS mid-trop	+0.46°C/0.83°F	2nd warmest	1998 (+0.65°C/1.17°F)	+0.20°C/decade

*Version 02_1

Stratosphere

Current Month
The table below summarizes stratospheric conditions for July 2006. On average, the stratosphere is located approximately between 10-14 miles above the Earth's surface. Over the last decade, stratospheric temperatures have been below average in large part due to the depletion of ozone. The large increase in temperature in 1982 was caused by the volcanic eruption of El Chichon in Mexico, and the increase in 1991 was a result of the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. Therefore the base period used is 1984-1990 which was chosen to avoid contamination by these eruptions.

July	Anomaly	Rank	Coolest Year on Record
UAH stratosphere	-0.34°C (-0.61°F)	9th coolest	1996 (-0.76°C/-1.37°F)
*RSS stratosphere	-0.21°C (-0.38°F)	10th coolest	1996 (-0.64°C/-1.15°F)

*Version 02_1

For additional details on precipitation and temperatures in July, see the Global Hazards page.

References

Christy, John R., R.W. Spencer, and W.D. Braswell, 2000: MSU Tropospheric Temperatures: Dataset Construction and Radiosonde Comparisons. J. of Atmos. and Oceanic Technology 17 1153-1170.

Fu, Q., C.M. Johanson, S.G. Warren, and D.J. Seidel, 2004: Contribution of stratospheric cooling to satellite-inferred tropospheric temperature trends. Nature, 429, 55-58.

Mears, Carl A., M.C. Schabel, F.J. Wentz, 2003: A Reanalysis of the MSU Channel 2 Tropospheric Temperature Record. J. Clim 16, 3650-3664.

Peterson, T.C. and R.S. Vose, 1997: An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network Database. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2837-2849.

Quayle, R. G., T. C. Peterson, A. N. Basist, and C. S. Godfrey, 1999: An operational near-real-time global temperature index. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 333-335.

Smith, T. M., and R. W. Reynolds (2005), A global merged land air and sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880-1997), J. Clim., 18, 2021-2036.