State of the Climate
Global Analysis
February 2006

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Climatic Data Center

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Global Highlights:

Based on preliminary data, globally averaged combined land and sea surface temperature was 8th warmest on record for boreal winter (December 2005 - February 2006), 7th warmest for February.
December 2005 - February 2006 temperatures were above average in North America, Scandinavia and parts of India. Colder-than-average conditions occurred in Europe, Russia and the western coast of Australia.
Precipitation during December 2005 - February 2006 was above average in the Amazon Basin, western Australia and the U.S. Pacific Northwest, with drier-than-average conditions in western Europe, western Australia and the U.S. Great Plains and Southwest.
ENSO conditions during February indicate the presence of a weak La Niña episode.

The data presented in this report are preliminary. Ranks and anomalies may change as more complete data are received and processed. The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

Introduction

Temperature anomalies for December 2005 - February 2006 and February are shown on the four maps below. The dot map on the left provides a spatial representation of anomalies calculated from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) data set of land surface stations using a 1961-1990 base period. The map on the right is a product of a merged land surface and sea surface temperature anomaly analysis which is based on data from the GHCN of land temperatures and the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) of Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) data. Temperature anomalies with respect to 1961-1990 for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis. Additional information on this product is available.

During boreal winter, temperatures were above average across Iceland, Scandinavia, India, southeast Asia and much of North America. Cooler than average temperatures were observed in Russia, Eastern Europe, and along the western coast of Australia.

Warmer than average SSTs occurred over the North Atlantic and South Pacific. Cooler than average conditions were observed in the Niño 3.4 region, indicative of the La Niña episode that developed by mid-January, please see the latest ENSO discussion for further information.

Current season's Land Surface Temperature Dot map

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Current season's blended Land and sea surface Temperature Dot map

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During February 2006, there were above average temperatures in Alaska, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Niger and most of Asia. Cooler than average temperatures were observed in Eastern Europe, the Iberian Peninsula and the U.S. northern Rockies.

Warmer than average SSTs occurred in the South Pacific and the North Atlantic. Cooler than average conditions were observed in the Niño 3.4 region, indicative of the La Niña episode that developed by mid-January, please see the latest ENSO discussion for further information.

Current month's Land SurfaceTemperature Dot map

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Current month's blended Land and sea surface Temperature Dot map

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The mean position of upper level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure (depicted by positive and negative 500 millibar height anomalies on the December 2005 - February 2006 map and the February 2006 map) are generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively. For other Global products see the Climate Monitoring Global Products page.

Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all weeks during 2006 at the weekly SST page.

Temperature Rankings and Graphics

Effective with the January 2006 report, NCDC transitioned from the use of the Operational Global Surface Temperature Index (Quayle et al. 1999) to the blended land and ocean dataset developed by Smith and Reynolds (2005). The differences between the two methods are discussed in Smith et al. 2005.

Current Month / Seasonal / Year-to-date

February	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest Year on Record
Global Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.96°C (+1.73°F) +0.37°C (+0.67°F) +0.53°C (+0.95°F)	8th warmest 6th warmest 6th warmest	2002 (+1.62°C/2.92°F) 1998 (+0.55°C/0.99°F) 1998 (+0.82°C/1.48°F)
Northern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+1.08°C (+1.94°F) +0.31°C (+0.56°F) +0.60°C (+1.08°F)	10th warmest 6th warmest 7th warmest	2002 (+2.12°C/3.82°F) 1998 (+0.53°C/0.95°F) 2002 (+1.03°C/1.85°F)
Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.57°C (+1.03°F) +0.44°C (+0.79°F) +0.46°C (+0.83°F)	8th warmest 8th warmest 5th warmest	1986 (+1.23°C/2.21°F) 1998 (+0.57°C/1.03°F) 1998 (+0.62°C/1.12°F)

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December-February	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest Year on Record
Global Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.72°C (+1.30°F) +0.39°C (+0.70°F) +0.48°C (+0.86°F)	8th warmest 6th warmest 8th warmest	2002 (+1.20°C/2.16°F) 1998 (+0.55°C/0.99°F) 2004 (+0.65°C/1.17°F)
Northern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.74°C (+1.33°F) +0.35°C (+0.63°F) +0.50°C (+0.90°F)	11th warmest 6th warmest 9th warmest	2002 (+1.55°C/2.79°F) 1998 (+0.52°C/0.94°F) 2004 (+0.81°C/1.46°F)
Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.63°C (+1.13°F) +0.44°C (+0.79°F) +0.46°C (+0.83°F)	6th warmest 6th warmest 5th warmest	1998 (+0.81°C/1.46°F) 1998 (+0.57°C/1.03°F) 1998 (+0.61°C/1.10°F)

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January-February	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest Year on Record
Global Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.62°C (+1.12°F) +0.38°C (+0.68°F) +0.44°C (+0.79°F)	15th warmest 6th warmest 8th warmest	2002 (+1.53°C/2.75°F) 1998 (+0.54°C/0.97°F) 2002 (+0.71°C/1.28°F)
Northern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.60°C (+1.08°F) +0.31°C (+0.56°F) +0.42°C (+0.76°F)	22nd warmest 7th warmest 12th warmest	2002 (+1.99°C/3.58°F) 1998 (+0.52°C/0.94°F) 2002 (+0.98°C/1.76°F)
Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.68°C (+1.22°F) +0.44°C (+0.79°F) +0.47°C (+0.85°F)	5th warmest 8th warmest 5th warmest	2003 (+0.81°C/1.46°F) 1998 (+0.56°C/1.01°F) 1998 (+0.60°C/1.08°F)

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The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

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Precipitation

The maps below represent anomaly values based on the GHCN data set of land surface stations using a base period of 1961-1990. During boreal winter, above average precipitation fell over areas that include the Amazon Basin, Iceland, southern Chile, eastern Australia and the U.S. Pacific Northwest and Northeast regions. Below average precipitation was observed in southern Brazil, the majority of Europe, the western coast of Canada, along the U.S. Gulf Coast and parts of eastern Australia.

During February 2006, above average precipitation fell over areas that include Indonesia, Japan, South Africa, along the coast of Alaska and parts of Brazil. Below average precipitation was observed across eastern Australia, India, the United Kingdom and much of the U.S.

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Precipitation Dot map in Millimeters for February

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ENSO SST Analysis

Last week of the month's ENSO condtions Map

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Sea Surface Temperatures were cooler than average across the central equatorial Pacific, indicative of La Niña conditions (shown in the adjacent animation of weekly sea surface temperature anomalies). A comprehensive summary of February 2006 ENSO conditions can be found on the ENSO monitoring page. For the latest advisory on ENSO conditions go to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all weeks during 2006 at the weekly SST page

Troposphere

Current Month / Seasonal
Mid-tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature data are collected by NOAA's TIROS-N polar-orbiting satellites and adjusted for time-dependent biases by the Global Hydrology and Climate Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). An independent analysis is also performed by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) and a third analysis has been performed by Dr. Qiang Fu of the the University of Washington (UW) (Fu et al. 2004)**.

The tables below summarize mid-tropospheric conditions for December 2005 - February 2006 and February 2006. These temperatures are for the atmospheric layer centered in the mid-troposphere (approximately 2-6 miles above the Earth's surface) which also includes a portion of the lower stratosphere. (The MSU channel used to measure mid-tropospheric temperatures receives about 25 percent of its signal above 6 miles). For additional information on MSU data used in this report, please see the Microwave Sounding Unit page.

All datasets indicate boreal winter temperatures and February temperatures were above average. Records began in 1979.

February	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest Year on Record	Trend
UAH mid-trop	+0.13°C/0.23°F	10th warmest	1998 (+0.65°C/1.17°F)	+0.07°C/decade
*RSS mid-trop	+0.25°C/0.45°F	6th warmest	1998 (+0.72°C/1.30°F)	+0.15°C/decade
**UW-UAH mid-trop	+0.19°C/0.34°F	7th warmest	1998 (+0.73°C/1.31°F)	+0.11°C/decade
*UW-RSS mid-trop	+0.39°C/0.70°F	6th warmest	1998 (+0.86°C/1.55°F)	+0.22°C/decade

*Version 02_1

December- February	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest Year on Record	Trend
UAH mid-trop	+0.08°C/0.14°F	13th warmest	1998 (+0.44°C/0.79°F)	+0.04°C/decade
*RSS mid-trop	+0.20°C/0.36°F	6th warmest	1998 (+0.50°C/0.90°F)	+0.12°C/decade
**UW-UAH mid-trop	+0.16°C/0.29°F	7th warmest	1998 (+0.60°C/1.08°F)	+0.10°C/decade
*UW-RSS mid-trop	+0.31°C/0.56°F	6th warmest	1998 (+0.63°C/1.13°F)	+0.19°C/decade

*Version 02_1

Stratosphere

Current Month / Seasonal
The tables below summarize stratospheric conditions for December 2005 - February 2006 and February 2006. On average, the stratosphere is located approximately between 10-14 miles above the Earth's surface. Over the last decade, stratospheric temperatures have been below average in large part due to the depletion of ozone. The large increase in temperature in 1982 was caused by the volcanic eruption of El Chichon in Mexico, and the increase in 1991 was a result of the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. Therefore the base period used is 1984-1990 which was chosen to avoid contamination by these eruptions.

February	Anomaly	Rank	Coolest Year on Record
UAH stratosphere	-0.80°C (-1.44°F)	coolest	2nd - 2004 (-0.67°C/-1.21°F)
*RSS stratosphere	-0.88°C (-1.58°F)	coolest	2nd - 2004 (-0.73°C/-1.31°F)

*Version 02_1

December-February	Anomaly	Rank	Coolest Year on Record
UAH stratosphere	-0.77°C (-1.39°F)	coolest	2nd - 2001 (-0.70°C/-1.26°F)
*RSS stratosphere	-0.77°C (-1.39°F)	coolest	2nd - 1998 (-0.63°C/-1.13°F)

*Version 02_1

For additional details on precipitation and temperatures in February, see the Global Hazards page.

References

Christy, John R., R.W. Spencer, and W.D. Braswell, 2000: MSU Tropospheric Temperatures: Dataset Construction and Radiosonde Comparisons. J. of Atmos. and Oceanic Technology 17 1153-1170.

Fu, Q., C.M. Johanson, S.G. Warren, and D.J. Seidel, 2004: Contribution of stratospheric cooling to satellite-inferred tropospheric temperature trends. Nature, 429, 55-58.

Mears, Carl A., M.C. Schabel, F.J. Wentz, 2003: A Reanalysis of the MSU Channel 2 Tropospheric Temperature Record. J. Clim 16, 3650-3664.

Peterson, T.C. and R.S. Vose, 1997: An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network Database. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2837-2849.

Quayle, R. G., T. C. Peterson, A. N. Basist, and C. S. Godfrey, 1999: An operational near-real-time global temperature index. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 333-335.

Smith, T. M., and R. W. Reynolds (2005), A global merged land air and sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880-1997), J. Clim., 18, 2021-2036.