Global Analysis - October 2014
2014 year-to-date temperatures versus previous years

« Global Analysis - October 2014

2014 year-to-date temperatures versus previous years


These graphics compare the year-to-date temperature anomalies for 2014 (black line) to what were ultimately the five warmest years on record: 2010, 2005, 1998, 2003, and 2013. Each month along each trace represents the year-to-date average temperature. In other words, the January value is the January average temperature, the February value is the average of both January and February, and so on.

The graphic on the left shows the basic year-to-date comparison. The graphic on the right zooms even further to what were ultimately the five warmest years on record, and shows several end-of-year results based on the following scenarios:

The years 2013 and 2014 are the only years on this list not to begin during a mature El Niño event. The years 1998 and 2010, each of which became the warmest year on record at the time, ended the year in a strong La Niña event, as evidenced by the relative fading of global average temperature later in the year.

The anomalies themselves represent departures from the 20th century average temperature. The graph zooms into the warmest part of the entire history. For a broader perspective on how these five years relate to the long-term record, click here.

2014 year-to-date anomalies through October compared to five warmest years on record
Global Year to Date Temperature Anomalies

2014 end of year outcomes based upon five scenarios
2014 End-of-Year Global Temperature scenarios

For reference, the five scenarios for the graphic on the right are:

ScenarioColor (dashed line)Notes
Each month matches its warmest value on record orange Six of the last 12 months (Nov 2013, May 2014, Jun 2014, Aug 2014, Sep 2014, and Oct 2014) have tied or exceeded this value
Each month matches its 3rd warmest value on record purple Each of the last seven months (April through October) have been 3rd warmest or warmer
Each month matches the average of its ten warmest values blue Of the last 12 months, only February 2014 has not been at least this warm
Each month matches its 21st century average navy This includes each month's 13 values from 2001-13
Each month matches its 10th warmest value on record green Of the last 12 months, only February 2014 has not been at least this warm