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Global Analysis - November 2007

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Note: GHCN-M Data Notice

An omission in processing a correction algorithm led to some small errors on the Global Historical Climatology Network-Monthly dataset (GHCN-M v3.2.0). This led to small errors in the reported land surface temperatures in the October, November, December and Annual U.S. and global climate reports. On February 14, 2013, NCDC fixed this error in its software, included an additional improvement (described below), and implemented both changes as GHCN-M version 3.2.1. With this update to GHCN-M, the Merged Land and Ocean Surface Temperature dataset also is subsequently revised as MLOST version 3.5.3.

The net result of this new version of GHCN-M reveals very small changes in temperature and ranks. The 2012 U.S. temperature is 0.01°F higher than reported in early January, but still remains approximately 1.0°F warmer than the next warmest year, and approximately 3.25°F warmer than the 20th century average. The U.S. annual time series from version 3.2.1 is almost identical to the series from version 3.2.0 and that the 1895-2012 annual temperature trend remains 0.13°F/decade. The trend for certain calendar months changed more than others (discussed below). For the globe, ranks of individual years changed in some instances by a few positions, but global land temperature trends changed no more than 0.01°C/century for any month since 1880.

NCDC uses two correction processes to remove inhomogeneities associated with factors unrelated to climate such as changes in observer practices, instrumentation, and changes in station location and environment that have occurred through time. The first correction for time of observation changes in the United States was inadvertently disabled during late 2012. That algorithm provides for a physically based correction for observing time changes based on station history information. NCDC also routinely runs a .pairwise correction. algorithm that addresses such issues, but in an indirect manner. It successfully corrected for many of the time of observation issues, which minimized the effect of this processing omission.

The version 3.2.1 release also includes the use of updated data to improve quality control and correction processes of other U.S. stations and neighboring stations in Canada and Mexico.

Compared to analyses released in January 2013, the trend for certain calendar months has changed more than others. This effect is related to the seasonal nature of the reintroduced time-of-observation correction. Trends in U.S. winter temperature are higher while trends in summer temperatures are lower. For the globe, ranks of individual years changed in some instances by a few positions, but global temperature trends changed no more than 0.01°C/century for any month since 1880.

More complete information about this issue is available at this supplemental page.

NCDC will not update the static reports from October through December 2012 and the 2012 U.S and Global annual reports, but will use the current dataset (GHCN-M v. 3.2.1 and MLOST v. 3.5.3) for the January 2013 report and other comparisons to previous months and years.

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Global Highlights:

Based on preliminary data, the globally averaged combined land and sea surface temperature was the eighth warmest on record for November and for the boreal fall (September-November), and the January-November year-to-date period ranked 4th warmest.
September-November 2007 temperatures were above average in northwestern Africa, Australia, eastern Brazil, Asia, and the U.S., including Alaska. Cooler-than-average conditions occurred in central Europe.
Precipitation during September-November 2007 was above average in the Philippines, southeastern Europe, parts of western Africa, and southwestern Alaska. Drier-than-average conditions were observed in the south central and eastern regions of the contiguous U.S., the south and eastern parts of Brazil, India, and eastern Asia.
Moderate-strength La Niña conditions were present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The data presented in this report are preliminary. Ranks and anomalies may change as more complete data are received and processed. The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

Introduction

Temperature anomalies for September - November 2007 and November 2007 are shown on the dot maps below. The dot maps, below left, provide a spatial representation of anomalies calculated from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) data set of land surface stations using a 1961-1990 base period. The dot maps, below right, are a product of a merged land surface and sea surface temperature anomaly analysis developed by Smith and Reynolds (2005). Temperature anomalies with respect to the 1961-1990 mean for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis. Additional information on this product is available.

Throughout the year, anomalous warm conditions covered much of the globe. The January-November 2007 map of temperature anomalies shows the presence of warmer-than-average temperatures across all land areas, with the exception of the southern countries located in South America. Warmer-than-average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were present in the Atlantic, Indian, and the Northwest Pacific oceans. Cooler-than-average conditions were observed in the Niño 1+2 and 3 regions, the northeastern Pacific and some areas in the southern oceans.

During the boreal fall, there were above average temperatures across northwestern Africa, Australia, eastern Brazil, Asia, and the U.S., including Alaska. Cooler-than-average conditions occurred in central Europe.

September-November Land Surface Temperature Anomalies in degree Celsius

September-November Land Surface
Temperature Anomalies in degrees Celsius

NOTE: We apologize for the inconvenience, but the Land and Ocean blended Temperature Anomalies for the boreal fall (September-November) will be temporarily unavailable.

During November, above average temperatures were observed across northwestern Africa, eastern Brazil, central and western contiguous U.S., Alaska, southern Australia, and much of Asia. Meanwhile, SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region were below average from west of the Date Line eastward to the South American coast. These conditions are indicative of a moderate-strength ENSO cold event (La Niña). Please see the latest ENSO discussion for additional information.

November's Land Surface Temperature Anomalies in degree Celsius

November's Land Surface Temperature
Anomalies in degrees Celsius

November's Blended Land and Sea Surface
Temperature Anomalies in degrees Celsius

The mean position of the upper level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure (depicted by positive and negative 500-millibar height anomalies on the September-November 2007 map and the November map) are generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively. For other Global products see the Climate Monitoring Global Products page.

Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all weeks during 2007 at the weekly SST page.

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Temperature Rankings and Graphics

Current Month / Seasonal / Year-to-date

Effective with the February 2006 report, NCDC transitioned from the use of the Operational Global Surface Temperature Index (Quayle et al. 1999) to the blended land and ocean dataset developed by Smith and Reynolds (2005). The differences between the two methods are discussed in Smith et al. (2005).

The January-November year-to-date period ranked as the fourth warmest January-November since records began in 1880 for combined global land and ocean surface temperatures, while the global land surface temperature ranked warmest on record. Meanwhile, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature for boreal fall (September-November 2007) was eighth warmest on record, and the land surface temperature was 2nd warmest, behind 2005. As for the month of November, the land surface temperature ranked fourth warmest in the 127-year record.

November	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest (or Next Warmest) Year on Record
Global Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+1.00°C (+1.80°F) +0.25°C (+0.45°F) +0.46°C (+0.83°F)	4th warmest 15th warmest 8th warmest	2004 (+1.40°C/2.52°F) 1997 (+0.54°C/0.97°F) 2004 (+0.73°C/1.131°F)
Northern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+1.19°C (+2.14°F) +0.33°C (+0.59°F) +0.66°C (+1.19°F)	4th warmest 10th warmest 5th warmest	2001 (+1.73°C/3.11°F) 2006 (+0.66°C/1.19°F) 2004 (+0.97°C/1.75°F)
Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.46°C (+0.83°F) +0.20°C (+0.36°F) +0.24°C (+0.43°F)	11th warmest 30th warmest 24th warmest	1982 (+1.45°C/2.61°F) 1997 (+0.55°C/0.99°F) 1997 (+0.58°C/1.04°F)

November's Global Land and Ocean plot

November's Global Hemisphere plot

September-November	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest (or Next Warmest) Year on Record
Global Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.93°C (+1.67°F) +0.33°C (+0.59°F) +0.49°C (+0.88°F)	2nd warmest 10th warmest 8th warmest	2005 (+1.14°C/2.05°F) 1997 (+0.54°C/0.97°F) 2005 (+0.64°C/1.15°F)
Northern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.99°C (+1.78°F) +0.39°C (+0.70°F) +0.62°C (+1.12°F)	2nd warmest 8th warmest 6th warmest	2005 (+1.28°C/2.30°F) 2006 (+0.64°C/1.15°F) 2005 (+0.83°C/1.49°F)
Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.76°C (+1.37°F) +0.27°C (+0.49°F) +0.34°C (+0.61°F)	5th warmest 21st warmest 12th warmest	1997 (+0.85°C/1.53°F) 1997 (+0.55°C/0.99°F) 1997 (+0.59°C/1.06°F)

September-November Global Land and Ocean plot

September-November Global Hemisphere plot

January-November	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest (or Next Warmest) Year on Record
Global Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+1.03°C (+1.85°F) +0.39°C (+0.70°F) +0.56°C (+1.01°F)	warmest 9th warmest 4th warmest	2005 (+0.98°C/1.76°F) 1998 (+0.50°C/0.90°F) 2005 (+0.61°C/1.10°F)
Northern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+1.20°C (+2.16°F) +0.43°C (+0.77°F) +0.72°C (+1.30°F)	warmest 6th warmest 2nd warmest	2005 (+1.03°C/1.85°F) 2005 (+0.55°C/0.99°F) 2005 (+0.73°C/1.31°F)
Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.55°C (+0.99°F) +0.36°C (+0.65°F) +0.39°C (+0.70°F)	7th warmest 9th warmest 9th warmest	2005 (+0.84°C/1.51°F) 1998 (+0.51°C/0.92°F) 1998 (+0.55°C/0.99°F)

January-November Global Land and Ocean plot

January-November Global Hemisphere plot

The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

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Precipitation

The maps below represent anomaly values based on the GHCN data set of land surface stations using a base period of 1961-1990. During boreal fall, above average precipitation fell over areas that include the Philippines, southeastern Europe, parts of western Africa, and the southwestern Alaska. Drier-than-average conditions were observed in south central and eastern regions of the contiguous U.S., the south and eastern parts of Brazil, and parts of India, and eastern Asia.

During November 2007, above average precipitation fell over areas that include parts of southeastern Europe, eastern Australia, and the Philippines. Drier-than-average conditions were observed across the eastern half of the contiguous U.S., Japan, southeastern China, eastern Brazil, and Argentina. Additional details on flooding and drought can also be found on the November Global Hazards page.

November's Precipitation Anomalies in Millimeters

September-November Precipitation Anomalies in Millimeters

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ENSO SST Analysis

First week of November's ENSO condtions Map

Click here for animated loop

Below average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies extended west from the Date Line to the western coast of North and South America. These conditions are indicative of a moderate-strength ENSO cold event (shown in the adjacent animation of weekly sea surface temperature anomalies). A comprehensive summary of November 2007 ENSO conditions can be found on the ENSO monitoring page. For the latest advisory on ENSO conditions go to NOAA's Climate Prediction center (CPC) and the CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.

Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all weeks since 2003 at the weekly SST page.

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References

Peterson, T.C. and R.S. Vose, 1997: An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network Database. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2837-2849.

Quayle, R.G., T.C. Peterson, A.N. Basist, and C. S. Godfrey, 1999: An operational near-real-time global temperature index. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 333-335.

Smith, T.M., and R.W. Reynolds (2005), A global merged land air and sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880-1997), J. Clim., 18, 2021-2036.

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Citing This Report

NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for November 2007, published online December 2007, retrieved on June 19, 2013 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2007/11.