Global Analysis - October 2007


Global Highlights:

  • Based on preliminary data, the globally averaged combined land and sea surface temperature was the sixth warmest on record for October and the third warmest on record for January-October year-to-date period.
  • October 2007 temperatures were above average in the contiguous U.S., Australia, northwestern Africa, parts of South America, and most of Asia. Cooler-than-average conditions occurred in Mongolia, central Europe, and Paraguay.
  • Precipitation during October 2007 was variable in many areas. It was above average in the midwestern and eastern states of the contiguous U.S., and parts of South America, Africa, and eastern Asia. Drier-than-average conditions were observed in the south central states of the contiguous U.S, eastern Australia, parts of Europe, India, and China.
  • Cold phase (La Niña) ENSO conditions strengthened during October.

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The data presented in this report are preliminary. Ranks and anomalies may change as more complete data are received and processed. The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

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Introduction

Temperature anomalies for October 2007 are shown on the dot maps below. The dot map, below left, provides a spatial representation of anomalies calculated from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) data set of land surface stations using a 1961-1990 base period. The dot map, below right, is a product of a merged land surface and sea surface temperature anomaly analysis developed by Smith and Reynolds (2005). Temperature anomalies with respect to the 1961-1990 mean for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis. Additional information on this product is available.

Anomalously warm temperatures have covered much of the globe throughout the year. The January-October 2007 map of temperature anomalies shows the presence of warmer-than-average temperatures across all land areas, with the exception of the southern countries in South America. Warmer-than-average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) occurred in the Atlantic, Indian, and the Northwest Pacific oceans. Cooler-than-average conditions were observed in the Niño 1+2 and 3 regions, the northeastern Pacific and some areas in the southern oceans.

During October, there were above average temperatures across the contiguous U.S., Australia, northwestern Africa, parts of South America, and most of Asia. Cooler-than-average conditions occurred in Mongolia, central Europe, and Paraguay. Meanwhile, SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region continued to decrease in October, indicating the strengthening of an ENSO cold event (La Niña). Please see the latest ENSO discussion for additional information.

The mean position of the upper level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure (depicted by positive and negative 500-millibar height anomalies on the October map) are generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively. For other Global products see the Climate Monitoring Global Products page.

Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all weeks during 2007 at the weekly SST page.

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Temperature Rankings and Graphics

Current Month / Year-to-date

Effective with the February 2006 report, NCDC transitioned from the use of the Operational Global Surface Temperature Index (Quayle et al. 1999) to the blended land and ocean dataset developed by Smith and Reynolds (2005). The differences between the two methods are discussed in Smith et al. (2005).

October 2007 ranked as the sixth warmest October since records began in 1880 for combined global land and ocean surface temperatures. The October land surface temperature ranked third warmest on record, while the ocean surface temperature ranked ninth warmest in the 127-year record. The global surface temperature for the combined January-October year-to-date period tied with 2002 as the third warmest January-October on record, while the global land surface temperature ranked warmest on record for January-October 2007.

October Anomaly Rank Ties Warmest (or Next
Warmest) Year on Record

Global

Land
Ocean
Land and Ocean

+0.89°C (+1.60°F)
+0.34°C (+0.61°F)
+0.49°C (+0.88°F)

3rd warmest
9th warmest
6th warmest




2005 (+1.07°C/1.93°F)
2003 (+0.55°C/0.99°F)
2003 (+0.69°C/1.24°F)

Northern Hemisphere

Land
Ocean
Land and Ocean


+0.88°C (+1.58°F)
+0.40°C (+0.72°F)
+0.58°C (+1.04°F)


3rd warmest
8th warmest
6th warmest





2003 (+1.23°C/2.21°F)
2003 (+0.65°C/1.17°F)
2003 (+0.87°C/1.57°F)

Southern Hemisphere

Land
Ocean
Land and Ocean


+0.95°C (+1.71°F)
+0.30°C (+0.54°F)
+0.40°C (+0.72°F)


4th warmest
16th warmest
10th warmest






1988 (+1.47°C/2.65°F)
1997 (+0.56°C/1.01°F)
1997 (+0.59°C/1.06°F)

January-
October
Anomaly Rank Ties Warmest (or Next
Warmest) Year on Record

Global

Land
Ocean
Land and Ocean

+1.04°C (+1.87°F)
+0.40°C (+0.72°F)
+0.57°C (+1.03°F)

warmest
7th warmest
3rd warmest


1997,2001
2002

2005 (+0.95°C/1.71°F)
1998 (+0.51°C/0.92°F)
2005 (+0.61°C/1.10°F)

Northern Hemisphere

Land
Ocean
Land and Ocean


+1.20°C (+2.16°F)
+0.44°C (+0.79°F)
+0.72°C (+1.30°F)


warmest
6th warmest
warmest






2002 (+1.01°C/1.82°F)
2005 (+0.55°C/0.99°F)
2005 (+0.71°C/1.28°F)

Southern Hemisphere

Land
Ocean
Land and Ocean


+0.57°C (+1.03°F)
+0.38°C (+0.68°F)
+0.41°C (+0.74°F)


6th warmest
9th warmest
9th warmest




2005 (+0.84°C/1.51°F)
1998 (+0.52°C/0.94°F)
1998 (+0.56°C/1.01°F)

The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

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Precipitation

The maps below represent anomaly values based on the GHCN data set of land surface stations using a base period of 1961-1990. During October 2007, above average precipitation fell over areas that include the midwestern and eastern states of the contiguous U.S., and parts of South America, Africa, and eastern Asia. Drier-than-average conditions were observed in the south central states of the contiguous U.S, eastern Australia, parts of Europe, India, and China. Additional details on flooding and drought can also be found on the October Global Hazards page.

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ENSO SST Analysis

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies continued to decrease across the eastern and central equatorial Pacific during October while warmer-than-normal anomalies were observed across the western equatorial Pacific. These conditions are indicative of a strengthening ENSO cold event (shown in the adjacent animation of weekly SST anomalies). A comprehensive summary of October 2007 ENSO conditions can be found on the ENSO monitoring page. For the latest advisory on ENSO conditions go to NOAA's Climate Prediction center (CPC) and the CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.

Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all weeks since 2003 at the weekly SST page.

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References

Peterson, T.C. and R.S. Vose, 1997: An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network Database. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2837-2849.

Quayle, R.G., T.C. Peterson, A.N. Basist, and C. S. Godfrey, 1999: An operational near-real-time global temperature index. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 333-335.

Smith, T.M., and R.W. Reynolds (2005), A global merged land air and sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880-1997), J. Clim., 18, 2021-2036.

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Citing This Report

NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for October 2007, published online November 2007, retrieved on September 2, 2014 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2007/10.