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Global Analysis - October 2006

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Note: The data presented in this report are preliminary. Ranks and anomalies may change as more complete data are received and processed. Effective September 2012, the GHCN-M version 3.2.0 dataset of monthly mean temperature replaced the GHCN-M version 3.1.0 monthly mean temperature dataset. Beginning with the August 2012 Global monthly State of the Climate Report, released on September 17, 2012, GHCN-M version 3.2.0 is used for NCDC climate monitoring activities, including calculation of global land surface temperature anomalies and trends. For more information about this newest version, please see the GHCN-M version 3.2.0 Technical Report.

*The GHCN-M version 3.1.0 Technical Report was revised on September 5, 2012 to accurately reflect the changes incorporated in that version. Previously that report incorrectly included discussion of changes to the Pairwise Homogeneity Algorithm (PHA). Changes to the PHA are included in version 3.2.0 and described in the version 3.2.0 Technical Report. Please see the Frequently Asked Questions to learn more about this update.

Global Highlights:

Based on preliminary data, globally averaged combined land and sea surface temperature was fourth warmest on record for October 2006, fifth warmest for January-October year-to-date.
October temperatures were above average in Alaska, Europe and most of south Asia. Cooler-than-average conditions occurred in Siberia and the majority of the U.S.
Precipitation during October was above average in most of the eastern U.S., southern parts of South America, Scandinavia, and Thailand. Drier than average conditions were observed in eastern Asia, Australia and the west coast of Canada.
ENSO conditions remained in a warm phase (El Niño) during October.

The data presented in this report are preliminary. Ranks and anomalies may change as more complete data are received and processed. The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

Introduction

Temperature anomalies for October 2006 are shown on the dot maps below. The dot map, below left, provide a spatial representation of anomalies calculated from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) data set of land surface stations using a 1961-1990 base period. The dot map, below right, is a product of a merged land surface and sea surface temperature anomaly analysis developed by Smith and Reynolds (2005). Temperature anomalies with respect to the 1961-1990 mean for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis. Additional information on this product is available.

During October, there were above average temperatures across Alaska, Europe, Southeast Asia, eastern parts of Africa and Brazil. Cooler than average temperatures were observed in Siberia and the majority of the U.S. Warmer than average SSTs occurred in the North Atlantic and the Niño 3 and 1+2 regions. Temperatures in parts of these Niño regions were more than 2°C above average, and the average temperature in the Niño 3.4 region increased markedly in October to approximately 1°C. Please see the latest ENSO discussion for additional information on the developing El Niño event.

Anomalously warm temperatures have covered much of the globe throughout the year. The January-October 2006 year-to-date map of temperature anomalies show the presence of warmer than average temperatures across all land areas except central Russia and western Australia. Warmer than average SSTs occurred in the South Pacific, North and South Atlantic and the South Indian Ocean, with cooler than average conditions observed off the coast of southern Australia.

Current month's Land SurfaceTemperature Dot map

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Current month's blended Land and sea surface Temperature Dot map

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The mean position of upper level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure (depicted by positive and negative 500-millibar height anomalies on the October map) are generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively. For other Global products see the Climate Monitoring Global Products page.

Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all weeks during 2006 at the weekly SST page.

Temperature Rankings and Graphics

Effective with the January, 2006 report, NCDC transitioned from the use of the Operational Global Surface Temperature Index (Quayle et al. 1999) to the blended land and ocean dataset developed by Smith and Reynolds (2005). The differences between the two methods are discussed in Smith et al. 2005.

October 2006 was the 4th warmest October since global surface records began in 1880 for global land and ocean surface temperatures. October land surface temperatures were 3rd warmest, while ocean surface temperatures were 4th warmest in the 127-year record. The January-October 2006 land and ocean combined temperature was tied for 5th warmest on record.

Current Month / Year-to-date

October	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest Year on Record
Global Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.80°C (+1.44°F) +0.48°C (+0.86°F) +0.57°C (+1.03°F)	3rd warmest 4th warmest 4th warmest	2005 (+1.07°C/1.93°F) 2003 (+0.55°C/0.99°F) 2003 (+0.69°C/1.24°F)
Northern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.84°C (+1.51°F) +0.64°C (+1.15°F) +0.72°C (+1.30°F)	3rd warmest 2nd warmest 3rd warmest	2003 (+1.22°C/2.20°F) 2003 (+0.65°C/1.17°F) 2003 (+0.86°C/1.55°F)
Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.67°C (+1.21°F) +0.36°C (+0.65°F) +0.40°C (+0.72°F)	10th warmest 9th warmest 9th warmest	1988 (+1.47°C/2.65°F) 1997 (+0.56°C/1.01°F) 1997 (+0.59°C/1.06°F)

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January-October	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest Year on Record
Global Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.74°C (+1.33°F) +0.44°C (+0.79°F) +0.52°C (+0.94°F)	4th warmest 6th warmest 5th warmest	2005 (+0.95°C/1.71°F) 1998 (+0.51°C/0.92°F) 2005 (+0.61°C/1.10°F)
Northern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.81°C (+1.46°F) +0.47°C (+0.85°F) +0.60°C (+1.08°F)	4th warmest 5th warmest 5th warmest	2002 (+1.00°C/1.80°F) 2005 (+0.55°C/0.99°F) 2005 (+0.71°C/1.28°F)
Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.50°C (+0.90°F) +0.42°C (+0.76°F) +0.43°C (+0.77°F)	7th warmest 5th warmest 5th warmest	2005 (+0.86°C/1.55°F) 1998 (+0.52°C/0.94°F) 1998 (+0.56°C/1.01°F)

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The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

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Precipitation

The maps below represent anomaly values based on the GHCN data set of land surface stations using a base period of 1961-1990. During October, above average precipitation fell over areas that include much of the eastern contiguous U.S. including the Mississippi Valley, western Alaska, Scandinavia, southern parts of South America, Portugal, Turkey and Thailand. Heavy rain and flooding occurred in Ethiopia, southern Alaska, and Turkey. Below average precipitation was observed in the western coast of Canada, southern Europe, eastern Australia and much of eastern Asia. Additional details on flooding and drought can also be found on the October Global Hazards page.

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Precipitation Dot map in Percent for October

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ENSO SST Analysis

Last week of the month's ENSO condtions Map

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Sea Surface Temperatures continued to increase across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during October, indicative of a strengthening El Niño episode (shown in the adjacent animation of weekly sea surface temperature anomalies). A comprehensive summary of October 2006 ENSO conditions can be found on the ENSO monitoring page. For the latest advisory on ENSO conditions go to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all weeks during 2006 at the weekly SST page

References

Peterson, T.C. and R.S. Vose, 1997: An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network Database. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2837-2849.

Quayle, R. G., T. C. Peterson, A. N. Basist, and C. S. Godfrey, 1999: An operational near-real-time global temperature index. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 333-335.

Smith, T. M., and R. W. Reynolds (2005), A global merged land air and sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880-1997), J. Clim., 18, 2021-2036.

Citing This Report

NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for October 2006, published online November 2006, retrieved on May 24, 2013 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2006/10.