Global Analysis - June 2003

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Note: GHCN-M Data Notice

An omission in processing a correction algorithm led to some small errors on the Global Historical Climatology Network-Monthly dataset (GHCN-M v3.2.0). This led to small errors in the reported land surface temperatures in the October, November, December and Annual U.S. and global climate reports. On February 14, 2013, NCDC fixed this error in its software, included an additional improvement (described below), and implemented both changes as GHCN-M version 3.2.1. With this update to GHCN-M, the Merged Land and Ocean Surface Temperature dataset also is subsequently revised as MLOST version 3.5.3.

The net result of this new version of GHCN-M reveals very small changes in temperature and ranks. The 2012 U.S. temperature is 0.01°F higher than reported in early January, but still remains approximately 1.0°F warmer than the next warmest year, and approximately 3.25°F warmer than the 20th century average. The U.S. annual time series from version 3.2.1 is almost identical to the series from version 3.2.0 and that the 1895-2012 annual temperature trend remains 0.13°F/decade. The trend for certain calendar months changed more than others (discussed below). For the globe, ranks of individual years changed in some instances by a few positions, but global land temperature trends changed no more than 0.01°C/century for any month since 1880.

NCDC uses two correction processes to remove inhomogeneities associated with factors unrelated to climate such as changes in observer practices, instrumentation, and changes in station location and environment that have occurred through time. The first correction for time of observation changes in the United States was inadvertently disabled during late 2012. That algorithm provides for a physically based correction for observing time changes based on station history information. NCDC also routinely runs a .pairwise correction. algorithm that addresses such issues, but in an indirect manner. It successfully corrected for many of the time of observation issues, which minimized the effect of this processing omission.

The version 3.2.1 release also includes the use of updated data to improve quality control and correction processes of other U.S. stations and neighboring stations in Canada and Mexico.

Compared to analyses released in January 2013, the trend for certain calendar months has changed more than others. This effect is related to the seasonal nature of the reintroduced time-of-observation correction. Trends in U.S. winter temperature are higher while trends in summer temperatures are lower. For the globe, ranks of individual years changed in some instances by a few positions, but global temperature trends changed no more than 0.01°C/century for any month since 1880.

More complete information about this issue is available at this supplemental page.

NCDC will not update the static reports from October through December 2012 and the 2012 U.S and Global annual reports, but will use the current dataset (GHCN-M v. 3.2.1 and MLOST v. 3.5.3) for the January 2013 report and other comparisons to previous months and years.

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Global Highlights:

  • Global average combined land and sea surface temperature was the third warmest for June 2003
  • Temperatures were much above average across most of Europe and South America with below average temperatures in the northeastern U.S. and the western half of Russia
  • Precipitation during June 2003 was above average in the southeastern U.S. and East Asia, with drier than average conditions over most of Europe and India
  • Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific began to indicate that ENSO was less likely to cycle into La Nina
  

Contents of this Section:
This is a break in the document The data presented in this report are preliminary. Ranks and anomalies may change as more complete data are received and processed. The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page. This is a break in the document

Top of Page Introduction

The June 2003 mean temperature was above the 1988-2002 average across most of the western U.S., Europe and India as shown in the adjacent map of blended satellite and in situ data. Cooler than average temperatures occurred over far western half of Russia, much of West Africa and the eastern U.S. The mean position of upper level ridges and troughs of low pressure (depicted by positive and negative 500 millibar height anomalies) are generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively. temperature in June 2003
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Click Here for the Global Temperature Anomalies in June 2003
larger image		 June temperature anomalies calculated from the Global Historical Climatology Network data set of land surface stations (using a 1961-1990 base period) also show above average temperatures throughout most of Australia, much of Europe, South America and Alaska. Monthly temperatures were 3-5°C (5.4-9°F) above the mean. Cooler than average temperatures were present throughout the eastern U.S. into the Great Plains, and in Kazakhstan, where monthly temperatures were as much as 2-4°C (3.6-7.2°F) below average.
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Top of Page Temperature

June
  • For June 2003, the global average land and ocean surface temperature was 0.54°C (0.97°F) above the 1880-2002 average, ranking as the third warmest June in the period of record
  • The warmest June occurred in 1998, when the global anomaly was +0.63°C (+1.13°F)
  • Globally averaged land temperatures were second warmest on record, 0.96°C (1.73°F) above the long-term mean
 Click Here for the Global Temp Anomalies in June 2003
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  • June 2003 temperatures averaged across the Northern Hemisphere were second warmest on record, 0.61°C (1.10°F) above the long term mean
  • Temperatures averaged throughout the Southern Hemisphere were second warmest, 0.47°C (0.85°F) above average
 Click Here for the Global Temp Anomalies in June 2003
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January-June
  • For January-June 2003, the global average land and ocean surface temperature was 0.55°C (1.00°F) above the long term mean, third warmest
  • Ocean surface temperatures were 0.40°C (0.72°F) above the 1880-2002 mean, third warmest for January-June 2003.
  • January-June 2003 temperatures averaged across the Northern Hemisphere were eighth warmest on record, 0.89°C (1.60°F) above the long term mean
  • Temperatures averaged throughout the Southern Hemisphere were second warmest, 0.72°C (1.30°F) above average
 Click Here for the Global Temperature Timeseries
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Click Here for the Global Temperature Timeseries
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  • Serial monthly global surface temperature departures with respect to a 1971-2000 mean are shown in the figure to the left
  • Globally averaged surface temperatures (land and ocean) have been warmer than the 1971-2000 average for the last 86 consecutive months
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Top of Page Precipitation

  • During June 2003, much above average precipitation fell across the southeastern U.S., much of Brazil, parts of East Asia and the eastern coast of Australia
  • Below average precipitation was observed in the majority of Europe, India and western Canada
  • Additional regional analysis can be found on the Global Hazards page
 Click Here for the Global Precip Anomalies in June 2003 larger image

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Top of Page ENSO SST Analysis

Click Here for the last week of the month's ENSO condtions Map
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  • Ocean and climate indicators used to determine the state of ENSO suggest that the projected transition to La Nina stalled during June 2003. The negative anomalies of sea-surface temperature diminshed across the central and equatorial Pacific, as shown in the adjacent animation of weekly sea surface temperature anomalies. This trend as well as others, such as deepening of the eastern equatorial Pacific oceanic thermocline are indications of a cessation of development to La Nina conditions, although there is considerable uncertainty for the next several months. ENSO conditions in the tropical Pacific are near-neutral as of the end of June 2003. The most up-to-date information on ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) conditions can be found at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
  • Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all months to date during 2003 at the weekly sst page

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References:

Peterson, T.C. and R.S. Vose, 1997: An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network Database. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2837-2849.

Citing This Report

NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for June 2003, published online July 2003, retrieved on June 19, 2013 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2003/6.