Global Analysis - October 2014


Maps and Time Series

Temperature and Precipitation Maps
Temperature Anomalies Time Series

Contents of this Section:


Global Highlights

  • The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for October 2014 was the highest on record for October, at 0.74°C (1.33°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F).
  • The global land surface temperature was 1.05°C (1.89°F) above the 20th century average of 9.3°C (48.7°F)—the fifth highest for October on record.
  • For the ocean, the October global sea surface temperature was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average of 15.9°C (60.6°F) and the highest for October on record.
  • The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–October period (year-to-date) was 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average of 14.1°C (57.4°F). The first ten months of 2014 were the warmest such period on record.

Introduction

Temperature anomalies and percentiles are shown on the gridded maps below. The anomaly map on the left is a product of a merged land surface temperature (Global Historical Climatology Network, GHCN) and sea surface temperature (ERSST.v3b) anomaly analysis developed by Smith et al. (2008). Temperature anomalies for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis. For more information, please visit NCDC's Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page. The maps on the right are percentile maps that complement the information provided by the anomaly maps. These provide additional information by placing the temperature anomaly observed for a specific place and time period into historical perspective, showing how the most current month, season, or year compares with the past.

The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

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Temperatures

In the atmosphere, 500-millibar height pressure anomalies correlate well with temperatures at the Earth's surface. The average position of the upper-level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure—depicted by positive and negative 500-millibar height anomalies on the October 2014 height and anomaly mapOctober 2014 and August 2014 - October 2014 height and anomaly mapAugust 2014–October 2014 maps—is generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively.

October

With records dating back to 1880, the global temperature averaged across the world's land and ocean surfaces for October 2014 was the highest on record for the month, at 0.74°C (1.33°F) above the 20th century average. This also marks the third consecutive month and fifth of the past six with a record high global temperature for its respective month (July was fourth highest).

The record high October temperature was driven by warmth across the globe over both the land and ocean surfaces and was fairly evenly distributed between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The Southern Hemisphere was record warm overall with a record high land surface temperature for the month. The Northern Hemisphere was third warmest on record for October, with a record high average sea surface temperature.

Globally, the average land surface temperature was the fifth highest on record for October, at 1.05°C (1.89°F) above the 20th century average. Record warmth in much of southern South America and large parts of southern and western Australia contributed to the record high average land surface temperature in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, record warmth was also observed in parts of southern Europe, the western coastal regions of the United States, and much of Far East Russia. On the other hand, parts of central Siberia observed temperatures 4–5°C (7–9°F) below average, as indicated by the Land & Ocean Temperature Departure from Average map above.

Select national information is highlighted below. (Please note that different countries report anomalies with respect to different base periods. The information provided here is based directly upon these data):

  • Australia observed its highest nationally-averaged maximum temperature for October since official records began in 1910, at 2.76°C (4.97°F) above the 1961–1990 average. Combined with the eighth highest October minimum temperature on record, the mean October temperature (average of maximum and minimum temperatures) for the country was the second highest on record at 1.91°C (3.44°F) above average, behind only 1988. The warmth was notable for its spread across Australia; New South Wales, South Australia, and Western Australia all had record high mean temperatures for the month while Victoria had its second highest.
  • Austria had its seventh warmest October since national records began in 1767, with a temperature 2.2°C (4.0°F) higher than the 1981–2010 average. According to ZAMG, even if observed monthly temperatures during November and December are average, 2014 will still be the warmest year in the country's 248-year period of record.
  • Germany observed its third warmest October since national records began in 1881. The temperature was 2.9°C (5.2°F) higher than the 1961–1990 average and 2.7°C (4.9°F) higher than the more recent 1981–2010 average.
  • The October temperature for Norway was 1.8°C (3.2°F) higher than the 1981–2010 average. Parts of Rogeland and some areas in Østafjells observed temperatures 3–4°C (5–7°F) above their average.
  • Denmark had its second warmest October since national records began in 1874, just 0.1°C (0.2°F) cooler than the record warmest October of 2006.
  • October 2014 in the United Kingdom tied as the 10th warmest October since national records began in 1910, at 1.6°C (2.9°F) above the 1981–2010 average. The October temperature for England was 1.9°C (3.4°F) higher than average, tying as the seventh highest temperature on record for October.
  • Switzerland had its fourth warmest October in the country's 150-year period of record. Measurement stations in Lugano, Locarno, Sion, and Geneva all reported record high temperatures for October, with Sion and Geneva 3°C (5°F) warmer than average for the month.
  • With records dating back to 1900, France also had its fourth warmest October, with a temperature 2.4°C (4.3°F) higher than the 1981–2010 average.
  • Sweden was warmer than average during October, with the southern half of the country experiencing temperatures 2–4°C (4–7°F) above their October averages. On October 28, the daily average temperature in Stockholm was 14.2°C, the highest daily average observed so late in the year since records began in 1756.

The global oceans were the warmest on record for October, with a temperature that averaged 0.62°C (1.12°F) higher than the 20th century average. This marks the sixth month in a row (beginning in May 2014) that the global ocean temperature broke its monthly temperature record. October 2014 also ties with June 2014 for the third highest ocean temperature departure on average for any month on record; the second highest departure from average occurred in August 2014 and the all-time highest occurred just last month.

These record and near-record warm global sea surface temperatures have all occurred in the absence of El Niño, a large-scale warming of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean that generally occurs every five to seven years on average. However, there is close to a 60 percent chance for El Niño to officially develop during the Northern Hemisphere winter, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The potential El Niño is favored to be weak and last into Northern Hemisphere spring 2015. This forecast focuses on the ocean surface temperatures between 5°N and 5°S latitude and 170°W to 120°W longitude.

October Anomaly Rank
(out of 135 years)
Records
°C °F Year(s) °C °F
Global
Land +1.05 ± 0.11 +1.89 ± 0.20 Warmest 5th 2005 +1.17 +2.11
Coolest 131st 1912 -0.95 -1.71
Ocean +0.62 ± 0.04 +1.12 ± 0.07 Warmest 1st 2014 +0.62 +1.12
Coolest 135th 1909 -0.47 -0.85
Land and Ocean +0.74 ± 0.07 +1.33 ± 0.13 Warmest 1st 2014 +0.74 +1.33
Coolest 135th 1912 -0.56 -1.01
Northern Hemisphere
Land +0.91 ± 0.11 +1.64 ± 0.20 Warmest 10th 2011 +1.34 +2.41
Coolest 126th 1912 -1.28 -2.30
Ocean +0.76 ± 0.05 +1.37 ± 0.09 Warmest 1st 2014 +0.76 +1.37
Coolest 135th 1912 -0.50 -0.90
Land and Ocean +0.81 ± 0.09 +1.46 ± 0.16 Warmest 3rd 2003 +0.89 +1.60
Coolest 133rd 1912 -0.79 -1.42
Southern Hemisphere
Land +1.44 ± 0.19 +2.59 ± 0.34 Warmest 1st 2014 +1.44 +2.59
Coolest 135th 1910 -0.66 -1.19
Ocean +0.53 ± 0.04 +0.95 ± 0.07 Warmest 3rd 1997 +0.59 +1.06
Coolest 133rd 1910 -0.46 -0.83
Land and Ocean +0.67 ± 0.06 +1.21 ± 0.11 Warmest 1st 2014 +0.67 +1.21
Coolest 135th 1910 -0.50 -0.90

The most current data October be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

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Year-to-date (January–October)

The first ten months of 2014 (January–October) were the warmest such period since record keeping began in 1880, with a combined global land and ocean average surface temperature 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average of 14.1°C (57.4°F), surpassing the previous record set in 1998 and tied in 2010 by 0.02°C (0.04°F). 2014 is currently on track to be the warmest year on record.

The most recent 12-month period, November 2013–October 2014, broke the record (set just last month) for the all-time warmest 12-month period in the 135-year period of record, at 0.68°C (1.22°F) above average, with November 2013 and May, June, August, September, and October 2014 all record warm for their respective months. (originally published as 0.69°C, corrected 20 Nov 2014)

For January–October, the average global sea surface temperature was also record high, beating the previous record of 1998 by 0.03°C (0.05°F). The average global land surface temperature tied with 1998 and 2002 as the fourth highest on record. Record warmth for the year-to-date was particularly notable across much of northern and western Europe, parts of Far East Russia, and large areas of the northeastern and western equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is also notable that record warmth was observed in at least some areas of every continent and major ocean basin around the world.

January–October Anomaly Rank
(out of 135 years)
Records
°C °F Year(s) °C °F
Global
Land +0.97 ± 0.22 +1.75 ± 0.40 Warmest 4th 2007 +1.09 +1.96
Coolest 132nd 1885 -0.60 -1.08
Ties: 1998, 2002
Ocean +0.57 ± 0.04 +1.03 ± 0.07 Warmest 1st 2014 +0.57 +1.03
Coolest 135th 1911 -0.48 -0.86
Land and Ocean +0.68 ± 0.11 +1.22 ± 0.20 Warmest 1st 2014 +0.68 +1.22
Coolest 135th 1911 -0.47 -0.85
Northern Hemisphere
Land +1.00 ± 0.27 +1.80 ± 0.49 Warmest 7th 2007 +1.21 +2.18
Coolest 129th 1884 -0.70 -1.26
Ties: 2011
Ocean +0.65 ± 0.06 +1.17 ± 0.11 Warmest 1st 2014 +0.65 +1.17
Coolest 135th 1913 -0.48 -0.86
Land and Ocean +0.78 ± 0.16 +1.40 ± 0.29 Warmest 1st 2014 +0.78 +1.40
Coolest 135th 1913 -0.50 -0.90
Southern Hemisphere
Land +0.88 ± 0.13 +1.58 ± 0.23 Warmest 2nd 2005 +0.91 +1.64
Coolest 134th 1917 -0.61 -1.10
Ties: 1998
Ocean +0.52 ± 0.04 +0.94 ± 0.07 Warmest 4th 1998 +0.57 +1.03
Coolest 132nd 1911 -0.51 -0.92
Ties: 2010
Land and Ocean +0.58 ± 0.07 +1.04 ± 0.13 Warmest 2nd 1998 +0.62 +1.12
Coolest 134th 1911 -0.51 -0.92

The most current data October be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

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Precipitation

October

The maps below represent precipitation percent of normal (left) and precipitation percentiles (right) based on the GHCN dataset of land surface stations using a base period of 1961–1990. As is typical, October precipitation anomalies varied significantly around the world. As indicated by the October precipitation percentiles map below and as typically seen from month to month, extreme wet and extreme dry conditions were scattered across the globe.

Select national information is highlighted below. (Please note that different countries report anomalies with respect to different base periods. The information provided here is based directly upon these data):

  • Most of Japan observed above-average rainfall during October, with much of eastern Japan reporting precipitation that was significantly above average. Typhoons Vongfong and Phanfone, which struck Japan within about a week of one another, contributed to the high precipitation totals.
  • Very Severe Cyclone Hudhud struck the coast of southeastern India in mid-October, bringing heavy rainfall to the region. One localized area in the state of Andhra Pradesh reported a 24-hour rainfall total of 15 inches (380 mm).

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References

Peterson, T.C. and R.S. Vose, 1997: An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network Database. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2837-2849.

Quayle, R.G., T.C. Peterson, A.N. Basist, and C. S. Godfrey, 1999: An operational near-real-time global temperature index. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 333-335.

Smith, T.M. and R.W. Reynolds, 2005: A global merged land air and sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880-1997), J. Clim., 18, 2021-2036.

Smith et al., 2008, Improvements to NOAA's Historical Merged Land-Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis (1880-2006), J. Climate., 21, 2283-2293.

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Citing This Report

NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for October 2014, published online November 2014, retrieved on November 27, 2014 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global.