State of the Climate
Global Analysis
October 2004

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Climatic Data Center

Use the form below to access monthly reports.

« September 2004
Global Analysis Report

November 2004 »
Global Analysis Report

Report:

Year: Month:

Global Highlights:

Based on preliminary data for October 2004, global average combined land and sea surface temperature was second warmest on record
October temperatures were above average throughout Alaska, Australia, eastern Europe and the majority of the U.S., with below average temperatures in far northwestern Canada, eastern Russia and Ireland
Precipitation during October was above average across the the United Kingdom, Japan, the Mississippi Valley and lower Great Plains of the U.S., with drier than average conditions in the southeastern U.S., Scandinavia and southeastern Asia
Above normal SSTs across the central equatorial Pacific basin suggest ENSO is in a weak warm phase

The data presented in this report are preliminary. Ranks and anomalies may change as more complete data are received and processed. The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

Introduction

The two maps below utilize different base periods and may reflect different anomaly values of land surface temperatures. The dot map on the left uses anomalies that were calculated from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) data set of land surface stations using a 1961-1990 base period. The map on the right is a blended product which uses satellite and surface anomaly values of measured land and ocean temperatures as well as SSTs with the base period of 1988-2004. Both maps reflect conditions during October 2004, indicating above average temperatures in northwestern Canada, east Africa, Australia, the southeastern U.S., Alaska and portions of Mongolia, with cooler than average temperatures in the northeastern U.S., the Caribbean, Argentina and eastern Russia.

The mean position of upper level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure (depicted by positive and negative 500 millibar height anomalies on the October 2004 map) are generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively. For other Global products see the Climate Monitoring Global Products page.

Click here for current month's Temperature Dot map

larger image

Click here for current month's Blended Temperature map

larger image

Temperature Rankings and Graphics

Current Month / Year-to-date

October	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest Year on Record
Global Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+1.05°C (+1.89°F) +0.47°C (+0.85°F) +0.64°C (+1.15°F)	warmest 3rd warmest 2nd warmest	2003 (+0.53°C/0.95°F) 2003 (+0.65°C/1.17°F)
Northern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+1.01°C (+1.82°F) +0.56°C (+1.01°F) +0.74°C (+1.33°F)	2nd warmest 2nd warmest 2nd warmest	2003 (+1.04°C/1.87°F) 2003 (+0.62°C/1.12°F) 2003 (+0.79°C/1.42°F)
Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+1.16°C (+2.10°F) +0.40°C (+0.72°F) +0.55°C (+1.00°F)	warmest 7th warmest 2nd warmest	1997 (+0.52°C/0.94°F) 1997 (+0.57°C/1.03°F)

Click here for Global Land and Ocean Triad plot

larger image

Click here for Global Hemisphere Triad plot

larger image

January-October	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest Year on Record
Global Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.82°C (+1.48°F) +0.40°C (+0.72°F) +0.53°C (+0.95°F)	4th warmest 4th warmest 4th warmest	1998 (+1.04°C/1.87°F) 1998 (+0.49°C/0.88°F) 1998 (+0.65°C/1.17°F)
Northern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.89°C (+1.60°F) +0.48°C (+0.86°F) +0.65°C (+1.17°F)	3rd warmest 2nd warmest 2nd warmest	1998 (+1.08°C/1.94°F) 1998 (+0.51°C/0.92°F) 1998 (+0.74°C/1.33°F)
Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean Land and Ocean	+0.53°C (+0.95°F) +0.36°C (+0.65°F) +0.39°C (+0.70°F)	5th warmest 7th warmest 5th warmest	1998 (+0.85°C/1.53°F) 1998 (+0.49°C/0.88°F) 1998 (+0.56°C/1.01°F)

larger image

The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

This is a break in the document

Precipitation

The maps below represent anomaly values based on the GHCN data set of land surface stations using a base period of 1961-1990. The map to the left is precipitation anomalies measured in millimeters, the map to the right is the percentage of average (1961-1990) precipitation. During October 2004, much above average precipitation fell across western Europe, Japan, Alaska, parts of Brazil and the central regions of the U.S. Below average precipitation was observed in the eastern U.S., Australia, Norway, the Korean Peninsula, Mexico and the Caribbean.

larger image

Click here for Percent Precipitation Dot map

larger image

The satellite images below were acquired from SSM/I satellite data using a base period of 1988-2004. The map on the left reflects surface liquid wetness conditions, while the map on the right reflects snow cover conditions for the month. Snow covered areas that are normally snow-free during this month will appear drier than average on the wetness image since a wetness value cannot be determined for regions that are snow covered. Data in these areas that are normally snow covered are displayed as missing. This is due to the snow crystalline structure which produces a considerable amount of scatter and makes it difficult for the SSM/I to accurately detect the surface conditions. The SSM/I products are experimental and are under continuing review and development. Additional data and information can be found on the SSM/I Browser.

larger image

larger image

ENSO SST Analysis

Click Here for the last week of the month's ENSO condtions Map

Click here for animated loop

A consensus of indices suggests above normal SSTs in the central equatorial Pacific basins which suggests ENSO continued to be in a weak warm phase (El Niño) during October 2004 (as shown in the adjacent animation of weekly sea surface temperature anomalies). A comprehensive summary of October 2004 ENSO conditions can be found on the ENSO monitoring page. For the latest advisory on ENSO conditions go to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all months to date during 2004
at the weekly SST page This is a break in the document

Troposphere

The table below summarizes mid-tropospheric conditions for October 2004. These temperatures are for the atmospheric layer centered in the mid-troposphere (approximately 2-6 miles above the Earth's surface) which also includes a portion of the lower stratosphere. (The MSU channel used to measure mid-tropospheric temperatures receives about 25 percent of its signal above 6 miles.) Analysis of the satellite record that began in 1979 indicates that global temperatures are increasing in the mid-troposphere, but the magnitude of the trend differs based on the analysis methods used in adjusting for factors such as orbital decay and inter-satellite differences. The 1979-2004 trend for October is 0.07°C/decade based on data from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH). Based on data provided by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) the trend for October is 0.16°C/decade. The base period used in both data sets is 1979-1998.

October	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest Year on Record
UAH mid-troposphere	+0.17°C (0.31°F)	5th warmest	1998 (+0.36°C/0.65°F)
RSS mid-troposphere	+0.34°C (+0.61°F)	3rd warmest	1998 (+0.43°C/0.77°F)

larger image

larger image

Stratosphere

The table below summarizes stratospheric conditions for October 2004. The stratosphere is located between 10-14 miles above the Earth's surface. Over the last decade, stratospheric temperatures have been below average in large part due to the depletion of ozone. The large increase in temperature in 1982 was caused by the volcanic eruption of El Chichon in Mexico, and the increase in 1991 was a result of the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. Therefore the base period used in both data sets is 1984-1990 which was chosen to avoid contamination by these eruptions.

October	Anomaly	Rank	Warmest Year on Record
UAH stratosphere	-0.44°C (-0.79°F)	9th coolest	1991 (+1.37°C/2.47°F)
RSS stratosphere	-0.51°C (-0.92°F)	8th coolest	1991 (+1.27°C/2.29°F)

larger image

larger image

Mid-tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature data are collected by NOAA's TIROS-N polar-orbiting satellites and adjusted for time-dependent biases by NASA and the Global Hydrology and Climate Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). An independent analysis is also performed by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS).

For additional details on precipitation and temperatures in October, see the Global Hazards page .

References:

Peterson, T.C. and R.S. Vose, 1997: An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network Database. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2837-2849.

Questions?

For questions on technical or scientific content of this report, please contact:

Ahira Sánchez-Lugo:
Ahira.Sanchez-Lugo@noaa.gov

For general climate monitoring questions, please contact:

CMB.Contact@noaa.gov

For climate data orders, please contact the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Services and Monitoring Division:

NCDC.Orders@noaa.gov

[ top ]

State of the ClimateGlobal AnalysisOctober 2004

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Climatic Data Center

Global Highlights:

Contents of this Section:

Introduction

Temperature Rankings and Graphics

Precipitation

ENSO SST Analysis

Troposphere

Stratosphere

Questions?

State of the Climate
Global Analysis
October 2004