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Williams Fork near Leal back to Streamflow Reconstructions

Gage record source Denver Water
Calibration/validation 1916 - 2002
Full reconstruction 1383 - 2002
Predictor chronologies DIL, GOU, PUM, PRD
Explained variance
66.5%
Download data
Time-series graphs
  Calibration/validation
Full Reconstruction
Sample Depth
Validation statistics

 

Graph of gaged and reconstructed streamflow

Gaged (blue) and reconstructed (green) records over the calibration/validation period (1916-2002).

 

Graph of reconstructed streamflow

Full reconstruction (1383-2002), with annual values (green) and a 5-year weighted mean.

 

Graph of sample depth

Total sample depth (typically, two series per tree) for the reconstruction. Decline in sample depth after 1999 is due to re-collection of predictor chronologies in 2003 to sample the 2000-2002 rings; the new collections (15-18 series per site) are smaller than the original collections (30-40 series) but sufficient to robustly capture the signal.

Validation Statistics

(See Case Study for detailed explanation)

 
  Rcal Rval
calibration model 0.816  
PRESS validation   0.789
 
  R2cal RE(val) R2bias

calibration model

 0.665    
PRESS validation   0.622  
LNN validation 0.661   0.626
 
 

standard error of estimate

 RMSE
calibration model 11644  
PRESS validation   12010

 

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NOAA Paleoclimatology Branch

Last Updated: 10 Feb 05