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European spring and autumn temperature variability and change of extremes over the last half millennium


Figure 2.
Difference map between the warmest and coldest multi-decadal springs (1975-2004 minus 1687-1716). Click image for full figure including autumn differences.

European spring and autumn temperature variability and change of extremes over the last half millennium
Geophysical Research Letters
Vol. 32, L15713, 13 August 2005.

E. Xoplaki1, J. Luterbacher1, H. Paeth2, D. Dietrich3, N. Steiner3, M. Grosjean1, and H. Wanner1

1 NCCR Climate and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
2 Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
3 Department Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
ABSTRACT:
We evaluate variability, trends, uncertainties, and change of extremes of reconstructed and observed European spring and autumn temperature back to 1500. Spring and autumn temperature experienced systematic century-scale cooling compared to present conditions. The coldest springs appeared during the Maunder Minimum (DT = -1 K wrt 1901-2000). The amplitude of spring temperature variations at decadal and multidecadal scales doubles that of autumn and is most expressed in northeastern Europe. The decade 1995-2004 was very likely the warmest of the last half millennium. Anomalously warm springs and autumns have generally become more extreme in recent decades. However, the recent changes are statistically not significant with respect to the pre-industrial period.
Download data from the WDC Paleo archive:
European Seasonal Temperature Reconstructions from Xoplaki et al. 2005 and Luterbacher et al. 2004.
Plot the reconstructions produced in this study using the
WDC Paleo Interactive Plotting tool

To read or view the full study, please visit the AGU website.
It was published in Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, L15713, 13 August 2005.
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