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Western North America Annual Temperature Reconstruction

Figure S5: Annual regional mean time series reconstruction for western North America . Figure S5: Annual regional mean time series reconstruction for western North America (30°-55°N, 95°-130°W), as anomalies from the calibration period (1904-1980) mean.
(graph by C. Ammann and E. Wahl)
Comparative performance of paleoclimate field and index reconstructions derived from climate proxies and noise-only predictors

Geophysical Research Letters
Vol. 39, L06703,March 2012, doi:10.1029/2012GL051086

Eugene R. Wahl1 and Jason E. Smerdon2
1 Paleoclimate Branch, NCDC, NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, USA.
2 Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA
This article presents a tree ring-based reconstruction of western North America annual temperature over 1500-1980, with 5x5 degree grid cell coverage for the region bounded by 30°-55°N and 95°-130°W. A 1000-member probabilistic ensemble derived by bootstrap methods is employed for characterization of uncertainty. A key result based on the ensemble methodology is that the most recent decades are, at the level of the bi-decadal average, very likely the warmest across the region during the past 500 years. The reconstruction is used in a side-by-side comparison with a parallel reconstruction driven by non-informative predictors that have the same temporal autoregressive structure as the tree ring data. The proxy-based reconstruction clearly outperforms the non-informative predictor-based reconstruction across a suite of calibration and validation skill measures.
Download data from the WDC Paleo archive:

Data Description
Spatial means of the expected value reconstruction
Spatially-explicit values of the reconstruction across the target grid
Full 1000-member uncertainty ensemble
Mean and standard deviation of the full 1000-member uncertainty ensemble

Please also see the Supplemental Website for additional information about this study.

To read or view the full study, please visit the GRL website.
It was published in Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, L06703, doi:10.1029/2012GL051086
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