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Multi-centennial summer and winter precipitation variability in southern South America

Fig. 1a. Summer precipitation reconstruction Multi-centennial summer and winter precipitation variability in southern South America

Geophysical Research Letters
Vol. 37, L14708, doi:10.1029/2010GL043680

R. Neukom1,2, J. Luterbacher3, R. Villalba4, M. Küttel1,2,5, D. Frank2,6, P. D. Jones7, M. Grosjean1,2, J. Esper8, L. Lopez4, and H. Wanner1,2

Fig. 1a.
Summer (DJF) precipitation reconstruction. Click for full figure.

We present the first spatially and temporally highly resolved gridded reconstruction of multi-centennial precipitation variability for southern South America (SSA). A novel reconstruction approach of deriving 10,000 ensemble members based on varying predictor networks and methodological settings allows the identification of spatiotemporal changes in SSA precipitation and associated uncertainties. The summer and winter reconstructions back to AD 1498 and AD 1590, respectively, provide new evidence for multi-centennial increase in summer precipitation and an opposing decrease in winter precipitation into the 20th century. The drying in winter is significant over large parts of SSA, whereas the patterns for summer, possibly representing convective rainfall, have displayed high spatial variability. The fact that such long-term seasonal and spatial changes have occurred in the past, underlines the complex form that hydroclimatic variability might have in the future. This emphasizes the need for careful adaptation strategies as governments become attuned to the realities of climate change.
Download data from the WDC Paleo archive:
500 Year southern South America multiproxy winter and summer precipitation reconstructions,
Description and 15MB zip archive file containing netCDF and Text data files.

To read or view the full study, please visit the AGU website.
It was published in Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 37, L14708, doi:10.1029/2010GL043680
1 Institute of Geography, Climatology and Meteorology, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
2 Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
3 Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, Germany
4 Instituto Argentino de Nivología y Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales, CONICET, Mendoza, Argentina.
5 Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
6 Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
7 Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.
8 Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany.
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