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Figure 3. Spatial patterns of reconstruction statistics. Top, calibration (top--based on 1902-1980 data); middle, verification (based on 1854-1901 data) ; bottom, verification r2 For the statistic, values that are insignificant at the 99% level are shown in gray, while negative, but 99% significant values are shown in yellow, and significant positive values are shown in two shades of red. For the r2 statistic, statistically insignificant values (or any gridpoints with unphysical values of correlation r > 0) are indicated in gray. The color scale indicates values significant at the 90% (yellow), 99% (light red), and 99.9% (dark red) levels (these significance levels are slightly higher for the calibration statistics which are based on a longer period of time). A description of significance level estimation is provided in the Methods section.