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Interdecadal modulation of El Niño amplitude during the past millennium


Figure 1.C Spatial correlation of NADA PC1 with global JFM SSTs
Fig. 1C. Spatial correlation of NADA PC1 with global JFM SSTs during 1870-2002.
Interdecadal modulation of El Niño amplitude during the past millennium

Nature Climate Change
Vol. 1, Issue 2, pp. 114-118, May 2011
doi:10.1038/nclimate1086

Jinbao Li1,2, Shang-Ping Xie1,3,4, Edward R. Cook2, Gang Huang5, Rosanne D'Arrigo2, Fei Liu1, Jian Ma3 and Xiao-Tong Zheng4
ABSTRACT:
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability on Earth, alternating between anomalously warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) conditions in the tropical Pacific at intervals of 2-8 years. The amplitude of ENSO variability affects the occurrence and predictability of climate extremes around the world, but our ability to detect and predict changes in ENSO amplitude is limited by the fact that the instrumental record is too short to characterize its natural variability. Here we use the North American Drought Atlas - a database of drought reconstructions based on tree-ring records - to produce a continuous, annually resolved record of ENSO variability over the past 1,100 years. Our record is in broad agreement with independent, ENSO-sensitive proxy records in the Pacific and surrounding regions. Together, these records indicate that ENSO amplitude exhibits a quasi-regular cycle of 50-90 years that is closely coupled to the tropical Pacific mean state. Anomalously warm conditions in the eastern Pacific are associated with enhanced ENSO variability, consistent with model simulations. The quasi-periodic ENSO amplitude modulation reported here offers a key observational constraint for improving models and their prediction of ENSO behaviour linked to global warming.
Download data from the WDC Paleo archive:
1,100 Year El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Index Reconstruction, Text or Excel

To read or view the full study, please visit the Nature Climate Change website.
It was published in Nature Climate Change, Vol. 1, pp. 114-118, doi:10.1038/nclimate1086
1 International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii 96815, USA
2 Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York 10964, USA
3 Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii 96815, USA
4 Physical Oceanography Laboratory and Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Climate Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
5 Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
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