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R
ecent
paleoclimate research reveals that
relative to the past 5,000 years
the most recent millennium has been a period of less intense hurricane
activity in
the Atlantic Basin. More
work to
examine both frequency and intensity of severe storm events is
currently underway in order to assess the 20th century in the context
of the past centuries and the past millennium.
In the 20th century, category
five hurricanes (the most severe on a scale of 1 - 5) have accounted for
1 percent of hurricanes, while category four hurricanes make up 9 percent
and category three hurricanes make up 30 percent of all such storm events.
Only
two category five storms have hit the U.S. mainland in the past 120 years--
one in the Florida Keys in 1935 and Hurricane Camille which caused extensive
damage along the Mississippi coast in 1969.
During decades
of the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s, these intense hurricanes were less
frequent than in past decades. However, property losses from hurricanes
increased during these years because of development in damage prone areas.
However, starting in 1995, intense hurricane have become much more frequent.
It is quite possible that this increase marks the beginning of an era
of active hurricane conditions that may last 10 to 40 more years because
of forcing by the Atlantic multidecadal mode.
The modern, instrumented record of hurricanes provides only a limited
perspective of hurricane events. Questions about natural variability,
the effects of global warming on hurricane activity, and the increased
property losses due to hurricanes in recent years point to a need for
a better understanding of the nature and characteristics of hurricanes,
especially at longer time scales.
In order to gain a perspective on prior hurricanes, researchers study
proxy data such as sand layers deposited by storms behind barrier islands,
changes in coral chemistry, variations in tree-ring patterns growing in
coastal areas, and historical documents that include ships' logs and newspaper
accounts. These sources of hurricane information are starting to build
a picture of past hurricane activity for the past 100s to 1000s of years.
The Paleohurricane
Resource Center is designed to serve as a clearinghouse for those interested
in research in this new field. Links include a wide range of resources
for paleotempest and hurricane data, information and images. Contact
us if you have questions or suggestions
that you would like to share with us.
Preliminary
Summary of Workshop on Atlantic Basin Paleohurricane Reconstructions from
High Resolution Records
Links
& Resources
References
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