Storms in need of reanalysis
Certainty of storm intensity
IBTrACS data include the intensity estimates from available agencies. The range in the estimates of maximum sustained winds from between the agencies provides a measure in how certain we can be in the intensity record of said storm.
To this end, the CycloneCenter.org project is recruiting the help of citizen scientists for help.
The following is a listing of the least certain storms during the HURSAT period of record. It is hoped that this listing will spur a reanalysis of these storms.
More information on how storm certainty was calculated can be found in Knapp et al. (BAMS, 2009)
Key: STORM NAME (Num) (YEAR)
- Num = Cummulative ranking of all storms and all basins
Sample: SKIP (2) (1988)
- 2 = Skip is the tropical cyclone with the 2nd most interagency variability for the HURSAT Period of Record.
Least certain storms during HURSAT record
The following are the 25 storms for each basin with the most interagency variaibility during the HURSAT record.
By year, the least Certain storms during HURSAT record
The following lists the 3 storms with the most variaibility by year and basin (numbers in parentheses are overall variability ranking).
| Select a year | 1978 | 1979 | |||||||
| 1980 | 1981 | 1982 | 1983 | 1984 | 1985 | 1986 | 1987 | 1988 | 1989 |
| 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 |
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian |
3 least certain storms for 1978
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | VIOLA (200) | 20P (656) | 16S (1403) |
| 2 | FAYE (260) | 21P (877) | 13S (1416) |
| 3 | AGNES (268) | 32P (1008) | 29S (1468) |
3 least certain storms for 1979
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | VERA (210) | 22P (147) | 19S (197) |
| 2 | JUDY (262) | 13P (247) | 10S (1001) |
| 3 | TIP (281) | 16P (526) | 20S (1056) |
3 least certain storms for 1980
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | WYNNE (229) | 17P (322) | 07S (56) |
| 2 | KIM (294) | 14P (463) | 16S (219) |
| 3 | PERCY (327) | 28P (742) | 11S (339) |
3 least certain storms for 1981
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | ELSIE (234) | FREDA (621) | MABEL (538) |
| 2 | HAZEN (269) | EDDIE (689) | PADDY (677) |
| 3 | IRMA (328) | DAMAN (829) | OLGA (942) |
3 least certain storms for 1982
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | ELLIS (343) | ABIGAIL (117) | IAN (500) |
| 2 | MAC (366) | DOMINIC (380) | HARRIET (671) |
| 3 | ANDY (432) | BRUNO (648) | ARMELLE (739) |
3 least certain storms for 1983
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | FORREST (183) | ELINOR (580) | NAOMI (676) |
| 2 | MARGE (207) | REWA (800) | ELINAH (728) |
| 3 | ABBY (324) | OSCAR (962) | DADAFY (927) |
3 least certain storms for 1984
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | IKE (135) | JIM (470) | ANDRY (154) |
| 2 | BILL (176) | GRACE (824) | FANJA (288) |
| 3 | VANESSA (194) | INGRID (894) | WILLY (344) |
3 least certain storms for 1985
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | DOT (178) | ODETTE (312) | HUBERT (102) |
| 2 | FAY (310) | NIGEL (451) | ISOBEL (128) |
| 3 | HAL (388) | HINA (537) | MARGOT (141) |
3 least certain storms for 1986
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | PEGGY (174) | NAMU (309) | DELIFINA (41) |
| 2 | LOLA (230) | WINIFRED (361) | ALISON (102) |
| 3 | KEN (233) | IMA (425) | ERINESTA (122) |
3 least certain storms for 1987
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | NINA (45) | UMA (391) | ELSIE (54) |
| 2 | LYNN (155) | SALLY (394) | CONNIE (156) |
| 3 | HOLLY (209) | BLANCH (590) | ALININA (354) |
3 least certain storms for 1988
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | SKIP (29) | ANNE (146) | GASITAO (75) |
| 2 | NELSON (63) | CHARLIE (435) | DOAZA (86) |
| 3 | RUBY (144) | AGI (525) | HELY (336) |
3 least certain storms for 1989
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | GAY (22) | HARRY (119) | HANITRA (19) |
| 2 | ANGELA (51) | AIVU (292) | EDME (61) |
| 3 | IRMA (65) | LILI (409) | BARISAONA (163) |
3 least certain storms for 1990
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | MIKE (15) | NANCY (456) | ALIBERA (4) |
| 2 | FLO (83) | OFA (507) | SAM (173) |
| 3 | PAGE (100) | RAE (674) | CEZERA (259) |
3 least certain storms for 1991
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | YURI (47) | SINA (64) | BELLA (84) |
| 2 | SETH (82) | JOY (285) | DEBRA (198) |
| 3 | WALT (85) | LISA (667) | ELMA (297) |
3 least certain storms for 1992
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | YVETTE (1) | FRAN (181) | IRNA (12) |
| 2 | ELSIE (10) | VAL (255) | ALEXANDRA (49) |
| 3 | OMAR (24) | ESAU (271) | FARIDA (76) |
3 least certain storms for 1993
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | ED (25) | KINA (87) | JOURDANNE (113) |
| 2 | KORYN (72) | PREMA (137) | FINELLA (286) |
| 3 | IRA (107) | OLIVER (315) | KONITA (373) |
3 least certain storms for 1994
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | DOUG (53) | REWA (212) | GERALDA (106) |
| 2 | WILDA (68) | THOMAS (483) | LITANNE (186) |
| 3 | ZELDA (101) | SARAH (556) | CECILIA (282) |
3 least certain storms for 1995
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | ANGELA (9) | AGNES (515) | KYLIE (126) |
| 2 | WARD (21) | WARREN (644) | MARLENE (291) |
| 3 | RYAN (48) | VIOLET (926) | ALBERTINE (320) |
3 least certain storms for 1996
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | DALE (13) | BETI (521) | AGNIELLE (11) |
| 2 | HERB (23) | JACOB (794) | ITELLE (78) |
| 3 | EVE (28) | ETHEL (1101) | HANSELLA (160) |
3 least certain storms for 1997
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | JOAN (2) | DRENA (242) | GRETELLE (116) |
| 2 | ISA (3) | KELI (340) | BELLAMINE (131) |
| 3 | IVAN (8) | JUSTIN (390) | HELINDA (350) |
3 least certain storms for 1998
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | BABS (31) | VICTOR (241) | ANACELLE (103) |
| 2 | ZEB (52) | KATRINA (289) | ELSIE (170) |
| 3 | REX (81) | RON (461) | TIFFANY (189) |
3 least certain storms for 1999
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | BART (40) | DANI (337) | EVRINA (91) |
| 2 | MAGGIE (105) | HALI (352) | DAVINA (112) |
| 3 | DAN (152) | THELMA (368) | BIRENDA (436) |
3 least certain storms for 2000
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | DAMRCY (38) | VAUGHAN (208) | NORMAN (314) |
| 2 | SAOMAI (58) | STEVE (437) | PAUL (374) |
| 3 | SHANSHAN (90) | TESSI (556) | KIRRILY (451) |
3 least certain storms for 2001
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | FAXAI (21) | SAM (727) | BINDU (508) |
| 2 | PODUL (50) | PAULA (732) | ANDO (509) |
| 3 | MAN-YI (66) | SOSE (1097) | EVARISTE (649) |
3 least certain storms for 2002
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | FENGSHEN (20) | BERNIE (1169) | HARY (355) |
| 2 | MITAG (30) | TRINA (1234) | DIANNE (437) |
| 3 | PHANFONE (37) | WAKA (1279) | DINA (518) |
3 least certain storms for 2003
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | LUPIT (26) | AMI (306) | KALUNDE (362) |
| 2 | KUJIRA (32) | DOVI (406) | JAPHET (443) |
| 3 | MAEMI (35) | ZOE (408) | CRAIG (540) |
3 least certain storms for 2004
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | DIANMU (27) | HETA (417) | FRANK (275) |
| 2 | CHABA (34) | IVY (590) | ITSENG (407) |
| 3 | SUDAL (43) | FAY (850) | GAFILO (485) |
3 least certain storms for 2005
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | NABI (60) | OLAF (190) | BENTO (339) |
| 2 | LONGWANG (109) | NANCY (257) | CHAMBO (428) |
| 3 | NESAT (138) | INGRID (347) | ERNEST (805) |
3 least certain storms for 2006
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | XANGSANE (36) | MONICA (449) | CARINA (359) |
| 2 | YAGI (120) | LARRY (672) | ALVIN (558) |
| 3 | CHANCHU (141) | KATE (990) | CLARE (701) |
3 least certain storms for 2007
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | SEPAT (133) | XAVIER (623) | BONDO (177) |
| 2 | YUTU (186) | PIERRE (838) | INDLALA (423) |
| 3 | USAGI (204) | BECKY (1111) | GAMEDE (468) |
3 least certain storms for 2008
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | RAMMASUN (231) | GENE (524) | IVAN (250) |
| 2 | SINLAKU (239) | FUNA (811) | HONDO (527) |
| 3 | HAGUPIT (245) | DAMAN (818) | KAMBA (559) |
3 least certain storms for 2009
| West Pacific | South Pacific | South Indian | |
| 1 | NIDA (58) | HAMISH (399) | GAEL (444) |
| 2 | MELOR (80) | JASPER (967) | BILLY (647) |
| 3 | LUPIT (98) | LIN (1343) | FANELE (752) |



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