National Climatic Data Center, 15 July 2003

• Although a series of wet winter storms brought relief elsewhere in the West, Arizona, Utah and parts of Nevada remain stuck in the fifth year of a record-setting drought, one that climate watchers say shows no signs of abating. Some of its most serious consequences are readily visible in the blackened skies near Tucson and other wildfire locations this week.
• "The worst case has happened," said Mark Svoboda, a climatologist at the National Drought Mitigation Center. "El Niņo failed to give us much oomph, and now many areas have slid back and gotten worse. We won't be talking about this drought going away until this time next year."
• What increasingly troubles many water experts is the accumulating effects of such a long dry period. The rain that doesn't fall adds up over time. Since 1996, Phoenix has built a "rain deficit," the difference between what should fall and what does, of more than 13 inches, or nearly two years' worth of precipitation. In Flagstaff, the deficit totals more than two years' worth.
  • Such shortfalls rob the soil of moisture, weakening trees, shrubs and other vegetation. That, in turn, ruins wildlife habitat and livestock feed, heightens fire danger and invites disease and pests such as the bark beetles.
• Storage reservoirs have fallen behind as well, as runoff-starved rivers deliver less water. Over the past four years, the Colorado River has fallen behind by 8.3 million acre-feet of water, or about the amount used in a year by Arizona, Nevada and California.
  • Those three states have drawn on storage in Lakes Powell and Mead, which have both fallen to near-record low levels.
• Conditions around the region:
  • Arizona's forests are suffering catastrophic losses from six years of below-average precipitation. Trees are like kiln-dried lumber, pushing wildfire danger to extreme levels again. Bark beetles have ravaged millions of drought-weakened ponderosa and piņon trees, leaving behind even more unpredictable wildfire fuel.
  • Nearly all of Utah is suffering from extreme drought conditions, according to the mitigation center. Numerous communities along the populous Wasatch Front have imposed outdoor water restrictions, and some areas in the southern third of the state expect shortages before summer's end.
  • Southern Nevada officials want to impose mandatory conservation measures after Lake Mead, the area's chief source of water, fell below 1,145 feet in elevation. That level also triggers restrictions along the Colorado River.