HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK National Weather Service Burlington VT 1015 AM EST Fri Jan 11 2002 Drought/water resource statement Winter/spring flood potential outlook This is a combined drought/water resource statement and winter/spring flood potential outlook. Drought conditions continue across Vermont as beneficial water remains locked in the snowpack. Based on current snowpack and River ice conditions, the potential for flooding due to snowmelt and ice jams is below normal for the short and long term. Precipitation totals Precipitation deficits continued into the first week of January, with totals on average 1/4 inch below normal so far this month. Longer term deficits from last year continued into the new year. Drought conditions continue across Vermont, and precipitation totals were below normal in Northern New York as well. Frequent light snowfall has built a snow pack across the north country. Portions of the Adirondacks caught part of the Lake effect snows in late December. Southeast Vermont received significant snowfall early in the week, when a coastal storm dumped over a foot of snow in a narrow band across Southern Rutland and Windsor counties. Precipitation totals and departures by county (courtesy of the northeast River forecast center): Since since since County Jan 1 2002 Dec 1 2001 Jan 1 2001 pcpn depart. Pcpn depart. Pcpn depart. Clinton NY 0.11 -0.39 1.62 -1.32 25.00 -8.02 Essex NY 0.36 -0.28 2.21 -1.39 30.39 -6.81 Franklin NY 0.18 -0.46 2.51 -1.25 32.16 -6.92 St Lawrence NY 0.23 -0.40 2.65 -1.18 33.93 -4.86 Addison VT 0.38 -0.24 2.37 -1.13 31.92 -4.86 Caledonia VT 0.47 -0.17 2.52 -1.28 29.13 -8.63 Chittenden VT 0.14 -0.37 1.51 -1.52 24.44 -10.07 Essex VT 0.72 +0.02 3.00 -1.14 31.96 -7.06 Franklin VT 0.47 -0.12 2.83 -0.60 36.25 -2.58 Grand Isle VT 0.16 -0.37 1.58 -1.47 24.69 -9.28 Lamoille VT 0.37 -0.23 2.32 -1.20 30.14 -7.82 Orange VT 0.59 -0.08 2.40 -1.35 28.17 -8.78 Orleans VT 0.47 -0.21 3.20 -0.80 37.49 -3.27 Rutland VT 0.70 +0.08 2.31 -1.51 29.10 -10.64 Washington VT 0.37 -0.24 1.71 -1.78 25.34 -10.51 Windsor VT 0.79 +0.03 2.54 -1.74 30.90 -10.38 At the National Weather Service office in Burlington, the precipitation total for 2001 was 23.28 inches, the fourth driest year on record. Normal yearly precipitation is 34.47 inches. Water supply is the major drought concern in Vermont this winter. the snow pack will provide little relief to water supply concerns until a significant melt occurs. Snow depth and snow water equivalent In Northern New York, the Adirondacks averaged between 1 and 2 1/2 feet, with the higher amounts at higher elevations. In the Saint Lawrence River Valley, snow depths were 4 to 8 inches. Snow water equivalents, or the amount of water the snow would produce if melted, were 2 to 4 inches in the Adirondacks. The snow pack would yield 1 to 2 inches of liquid water in the Saint Lawrence Valley. In central and Southern Vermont, snow depths were 5 to 11 inches in the lower elevations, and increased to 1 to 2 feet over the higher terrain. In the northern part of the state, snow depths were 8 to 16 inches at lower elevations, and 1 1/2 to 3 feet at higher elevations. some isolated high elevations in the north, such as jay peak, had 3 to 4 feet of snow. Water equivalents in Vermont were similar to New York, with 1 to 3 inches at the lower elevations, and 2 to 4 inches of liquid water above 2000 feet. River Levels and ground conditions In central and Southern Vermont, River flows were in the lowest 25 percent of recorded flows. The dog River at Northfield Falls and ayers Brook at Randolph continued to post record low daily flows. In Northern Vermont and Northern New York River flows were near or just below normal values. The Lake Champlain level of 93.7 feet was at its lowest level for this time of year in the past 30 years. The normal Lake level for early January is 96.2 feet Portions of rivers are ice covered, mostly in River reaches with slow flows or calm water. In areas where water moves more rapidly, the rivers remain open. Where River ice has formed, it is 1 to 2 inches thick. The ground is largely unfrozen across the region, due to the persistent snow cover since mid December and the absence of significantly cold temperatures. Soil moisture is very low as well. Any snowmelt will mostly infiltrate into the soil and not contribute to runoff. The small amounts of snow melt seen this past week will only add moisture to the upper levels of the ground. Appreciable increases in soil moisture, ground water, or River levels will not appear until a significant snowmelt or rainfall occurs. Flood potential summary The potential for flooding due to snowmelt is low in the short and long term, based on current conditions. The snow pack has yet to build up to large enough levels to pose a significant threat. temperatures are expected to remain below freezing for the next week, with any additional precipitation falling in the form of snow. The potential for flooding along Lake Champlain is lower this year than in past years. With the Lake at extremely low levels as spring approaches, the rise needed to reach the flood stage of 100 feet is less likely to occur. The potential for flooding due to ice jams is low. Although portions of area rivers are ice covered, the ice is relatively thin, and large ice free areas remain. Most River levels are very low, and significant rises on rivers that would break up the ice cover and create ice jams are not anticipated. Although there are chances for snow over the next week, any snowfall amounts will be light. Temperatures are forecast to remain below freezing for the next week, so any snow that Falls will not be able to provide any help to water supplies. The longer term outlook for this winter continues to call for normal precipitation and below normal temperatures. Although a return to normal precipitation totals would be a positive trend toward easing drought conditions, most winter precipitation would remain locked in snow. River And ground water levels would not see relief from the dry conditions until a mid winter or springtime thaw. Water supply issues will likely remain a concern through winter, especially for homes and farms that have to haul water. Cold Winter temperatures will make the transfer and above ground storage of water much more difficult. The next hydrologic outlook will be issued Friday January 25. The NWS expresses its gratitude to cooperative observers and other spotters who contributed snowpack information to this report. Access current weather conditions and forecasts on our website at www.NWS.NOAA.Gov/er/btv. Hanson