National Climatic Data Center, 14 January 2003

The following information is from a January 6, 2003 briefing, "End of Year 2002 - Status Briefing on Water Supply in North Carolina", by the Drought Monitoring Council of the North Carolina Division of Water Resources (Woody Yonts):

Above-normal precipitation since September has significantly reversed drought conditions across North Carolina. This precipitation was associated with Gulf Coast tropical storms in September and the early onset of a winter weather pattern in October. This winter rainfall pattern is typical of those associated with El Nino, a cyclical warming of the water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean that causes shifts in weather patterns in North America. Research at the State Climate Office suggests an increase in winter precipitation during El Nino events.

Precipitation is expected to be above normal through the spring months, which should allow water supplies across NC to be in much better condition than last year. However, there is no confident forecast at this time for the summer of 2003. Moreover, there is uncertainty as to whether enough precipitation will fall this winter to restore depressed groundwater conditions before the warmer summer months. As long as groundwater levels remain low, NC is susceptible to a quick onset of drought conditions during even short-term periods of dry weather.

Most streams in North Carolina have had a reasonably good recovery because of the rains in last three months of 2002. Streamflows at the beginning of January 2003 are mostly in the normal range (25 to 75 percentile) as compared to last year when 85 percent of streams across the state were measuring flows in the lowest ten percent of their historical readings. However, if rainfall returns to below normal, streamflows would not take long to fall because of low ground water levels. While all regions of the State are susceptible to this problem, the areas that most need continued close monitoring are the eastern mountains and western Piedmont (Yadkin and Catawba River basins).

Ground-water levels at climate response network wells in the Sand Hills area and near Trenton (Jones County) show slow increases but continue to be near record low levels for this time of the year. Wells at Mocksville (Davie County) and near Salisbury (Rowan County) show some improvement in water table levels but remain well below normal. Most wells in the mountain area likewise appear to be responding more favorably to the rainfall although some wells (e.g., Blantyre well in Transylvania County) indicate continued below-normal levels for this time of year.

Seventeen community water systems providing water service to about 600,000 people continue to call for water use restrictions in January 2003, as compared to 246 water systems serving about four million people in October 2002. During October 2002, twenty-eight water systems were considered to be in an emergency status with less than 100 days of supply remaining and 90 additional systems were approaching emergency status.