 Climate Monitoring / Climate of 1999 / Help
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationClimate of 1999 - OctoberU.S. Regional and Statewide Analyses Includes Year-To-Date Summary and Drought Update National Climatic Data Center, 17 November 1999 |
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Through climate analysis, National Climatic Data Center scientists have identified nine climatically consistent regions within the contiguous United States which are useful for putting current climate anomalies into an historical perspective.
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE RANKS, BASED ON THE PERIOD 1895-1999. 1 = DRIEST/COLDEST, 105 = WETTEST/WARMEST FOR OCTOBER 1999, 105 = WETTEST/WARMEST FOR SEP-OCT 1999, 105 = WETTEST/WARMEST FOR MAY-OCT 1999, 104 = WETTEST/WARMEST FOR NOV 1998-OCT 1999. OCT SEP-OCT MAY-OCT NOV 1998- REGION 1999 1999 1999 OCT 1999 ------ ---- --------- --------- --------- PRECIPITATION: NORTHEAST 48 103 57 42 EAST NORTH CENTRAL 13 14 77 88 CENTRAL 25 13 9 20 SOUTHEAST 72 89 61 31 WEST NORTH CENTRAL 13 36 76 82 SOUTH 30 27 29 51 SOUTHWEST 5 17 89 71 NORTHWEST 43 15 21 95 WEST 27 20 18 40 NATIONAL 18 26 33 51 TEMPERATURE: NORTHEAST 26 66 96 99 EAST NORTH CENTRAL 46 47 72 100 CENTRAL 47 46 63 92 SOUTHEAST 51 33 44 96 WEST NORTH CENTRAL 64 43 48 94 SOUTH 49 41 60 100 SOUTHWEST 76 59 57 98 NORTHWEST 64 67 42 71 WEST 98 100 76 63 NATIONAL 65 59 67 101
PRECIPITATION (INCHES) DRIEST WETTEST NORMAL 1999 REGION VALUE YEAR VALUE YEAR PCPN PCPN ------ ---------- ---------- ------ ------ NORTHEAST 0.44 1924 6.96 1995 3.35 2.95 EAST NORTH CENTRAL 0.25 1952 4.66 1984 2.47 1.22 CENTRAL 0.53 1963 7.15 1919 3.04 2.06 SOUTHEAST 0.53 1963 7.33 1959 3.16 3.74 WEST NORTH CENTRAL 0.13 1952 2.95 1998 1.09 0.52 SOUTH 0.12 1952 7.07 1984 2.89 1.88 SOUTHWEST 0.02 1952 3.67 1972 1.12 0.25 NORTHWEST 0.14 1987 5.20 1950 2.05 1.93 WEST 0.01 1917 2.86 1962 1.01 0.44 NATIONAL 0.54 1952 3.72 1941 2.16 1.52* * PRELIMINARY VALUE, CONFIDENCE INTERVAL + OR - 0.21 INCHES TEMPERATURE (DEGREES F) COLDEST WARMEST NORMAL 1999 REGION VALUE YEAR VALUE YEAR TEMP TEMP ------ ---------- ---------- ------ ------ NORTHEAST 42.7 1925 56.0 1947 48.9 47.8 EAST NORTH CENTRAL 37.5 1925 57.6 1963 47.8 47.5 CENTRAL 48.2 1917 62.9 1947 55.2 55.6 SOUTHEAST 58.2 1987 72.8 1919 63.4 63.8 WEST NORTH CENTRAL 35.5 1925 53.9 1963 45.9 46.9 SOUTH 56.7 1976 69.9 1947 63.4 64.0 SOUTHWEST 48.6 1984 59.4 1950 53.4 54.8 NORTHWEST 42.3 1919 53.9 1988 47.7 48.6 WEST 51.8 1916 62.1 1988 56.9 60.3 NATIONAL 49.7 1925 59.8 1963 54.4 55.2* * PRELIMINARY VALUE, CONFIDENCE INTERVAL + OR - 0.3 DEG. F.
REGION PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE ------ ------------- ----------- NORTHEAST 80 94 EAST NORTH CENTRAL 90 99 CENTRAL 21 80 SOUTHEAST 37 76 WEST NORTH CENTRAL 81 90 SOUTH 43 92 SOUTHWEST 79 97 NORTHWEST 65 68 WEST 45 70 NATIONAL 50 96
PRECIPITATION (INCHES) DRIEST WETTEST NORMAL 1999 REGION VALUE YEAR VALUE YEAR PCPN PCPN ------ ---------- ---------- ------ ------ NORTHEAST 26.40 1957 44.79 1996 34.34 36.27 EAST NORTH CENTRAL 18.10 1910 33.27 1951 27.17 29.93 CENTRAL 26.58 1930 44.82 1898 36.08 32.93 SOUTHEAST 31.56 1954 54.83 1929 43.86 41.82 WEST NORTH CENTRAL 10.32 1934 21.38 1915 15.53 16.93 SOUTH 20.41 1956 41.23 1973 30.60 29.05 SOUTHWEST 7.05 1956 20.24 1941 11.78 13.08 NORTHWEST 13.30 1929 25.43 1950 19.69 20.26 WEST 5.98 1966 22.96 1998 11.96 11.03 NATIONAL 20.39 1934 28.56 1998 24.84 24.74 TEMPERATURE (DEGREES F) COLDEST WARMEST NORMAL 1999 REGION VALUE YEAR VALUE YEAR TEMP TEMP ------ ---------- ---------- ------ ------ NORTHEAST 46.5 1907 51.9 1998 48.8 50.7 EAST NORTH CENTRAL 42.8 1917 51.1 1921 47.0 49.0 CENTRAL 53.9 1979 60.1 1921 56.2 57.7 SOUTHEAST 63.0 1940 67.2 1925 64.6 65.8 WEST NORTH CENTRAL 43.0 1917 50.3 1934 46.9 48.3 SOUTH 63.2 1979 67.7 1911 64.8 66.6 SOUTHWEST 51.9 1917 57.8 1934 54.8 56.2 NORTHWEST 46.7 1955 53.0 1934 49.4 49.5 WEST 55.4 1912 60.5 1934 57.6 57.7 NATIONAL 53.4 1912 57.7 1934 55.3 56.7
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| The sixth hurricane of the Atlantic tropical season formed on 14 October, from a tropical storm first noted south of western Cuba just one day before. Hurricane Irene drifted northward and crossed the Florida Keys, east of Key West, on the 15th. The hurricane made landfall near Cape Sabel early the same afternoon with highest sustained winds of 85 miles per hour. Irene produced widespread rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with Boynton Beach, on Florida's east coast south of West Palm Beach, reporting 17.45 inches. Wind gusts of 85 mph were reported from both Miami and Homestead. |  |
Irene re-emerged over the Atlantic near Vero Beach and moved north toward the Carolinas. On the 17th and 18th, Irene insulted the eastern Carolinas with up to 8 inches of rainfall while the center paralleled the coast about 100 miles offshore. Portions of eastern North and South Carolina were inundated by floodwaters from Hurricane Floyd just one month earlier.
Hurricane Irene is the sixth hurricane in just over three years to impact eastern North Carolina. The others were Bertha (7/96), Fran (9/96), Bonnie (8/98), Dennis (8/99) and Floyd (9/99).
For the latest forecasts, warnings, and analyses for the tropical Atlantic and the tropical Eastern North Pacific, visit the National Hurricane Center's web site. For maps of U.S. landfalling major hurricanes and special reports on recent noteworthy storms visit the NCDC Hurricanes page. Additional satellite images and loops of Dennis and Floyd are located at the NCDC Online Images web site. Additional information, including near real-time data can be found at the Weather Underground tropical page.
October 1999 Temperature and Precipitation
Based upon preliminary data, October 1999 was the eighth warmest October on record for the West Region. Eight of the last thirteen such months have been warmer to much warmer than the long-term mean.
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larger image Preliminary data for the Northeast Region ranked October 1999 as the 25th coolest October since 1895. October temperatures have averaged at to below normal for the Northeast Region since 1986.
High pressure dominated the Southwest Region of the United States during October keeping most precipitation north and east of the region. October 1999 was the fifth driest such month since 1895 for the region.
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larger image Preliminary October precipitation data for the Primary Hard Red Winter Wheat Belt indicate that the five-month growing season was off to a dry start. October 1999 was the 13th driest such month since 1895.
October 1999 Statewide Temperature and Precipitation
Larger MapOctober 1999 was the third warmest such month since 1895 for Nevada. Eight other states ranked within the warm-third of the historical distribution. No state ranked within the top ten cool portion of the distribution while fourteen states ranked within the cool third.
No state ranked within the top ten wet portion of the historical distribution while only five ranked within the wet third portion. Five states ranked within the top ten dry portion of the distribution including:
Arizona - Driest Utah - second driest Nebraska - fifth driest Iowa - ninth driest Colorado - tenth driest
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January-October 1999 Temperature and Precipitation
Based upon preliminary data, the year-to-date 1999 was the seventh warmest such ten-month period on record for the East-North Central Region. Just last year the region had the second warmest such ten-month period on record.
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larger image Preliminary data for the East-North Central Region ranked January-October 1999 as the 16th wettest such ten-month period since 1895. The last ten such ten-month periods have been near- to much above the long-term mean.
January-October 1999 was the 21st driest such ten-month period since records began in 1895 for the Central Region and the first such period since 1992 to be below the long-term mean for precipitation.
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January-October 1999 Statewide Temperature and Precipitation
Larger MapEleven states were within the top ten warm portion of the historical distribution for temperature for January-October 1999, including: Rhode Island - 3rd warmest New Hampshire - 4th warmest Maine - 5th warmest Massachusetts - 6th warmest Wisconsin - 6th warmest No state ranked within the top-ten cool portion of the distribution.
January-October 1999 was the ninth driest such ten-month period since 1895 for West Virginia. January-October 1999 was the eighth wettest such ten-month period on record for Minnesota and the tenth wettest January-October since 1895 for North Dakota.
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November 1998-October 1999 Statewide Temperature and Precipitation
Larger MapTwenty-two states were within the top ten warm portion of the historical distribution for temperature for the running twelve month period. Some November 1998-October 1999 ranks included: New Hampshire - second warmest Rhode Island - second warmest Maine - third warmest Vermont - third warmest Only California ranked within the cool third portion of the historical distribution.
Four states were within the top 10 wet portion of the distribution for the November 1998-October 1999 period including: North Dakota - fourth wettest Washington - fourth wettest Minnesota - fifth wettest Kansas - tenth wettest Three states ranked within the top ten dry portion of the distribution for the same period. They included the sixth driest such period for West Virginia, the seventh driest for Georgia, and the tenth driest such twelve-month period since 1895 for Ohio.
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It should be emphasized that all of the temperature and precipitation ranks on these maps are based on preliminary data. The ranks will change when the final data are processed.
Palmer Drought Indices
The Palmer Z Index shows how monthly moisture conditions depart from normal (short-term drought and wetness). The October pattern shows extremely wet conditions across portions of Florida and eastern North Carolina brought by Hurricane Irene. Extremely dry conditions stretched from the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the central Great Plains, and also afflicted much of the southwestern U.S. The animated maps show the geographical pattern of the moisture anomalies for the last 12 months. On these maps, the red shading denotes dry conditions while the green shading indicates wet conditions.
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The Palmer Drought Index maps show long-term (cumulative) drought and wet conditions. The severe drought of 1999 continued from the central Appalachians to the Ohio Valley and over parts of the Southeast, but it had ended over the Northeast and coastal mid-Atlantic. Long-term conditions were in the very moist category in waterlogged eastern North Carolina. The central and northern Great Plains experienced unusually moist conditions during spring and early summer, but very dry conditions beginning in July 1999 eroded the eastern edge of the long-term moist area. The animated maps show how the geographical pattern of the long-term moisture conditions has changed over the last 12 months. On these maps, the red shading denotes drought conditions while the green shading indicates wet conditions.
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The Palmer Crop Moisture Index is computed on a weekly basis by the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center and is useful for following the impact of precipitation anomalies on agriculture. The Animated Crop Moisture Index maps show the weekly change in topsoil moisture conditions for 1999 through the end of October. On these Crop Moisture Index maps, the red shading denotes dry conditions while the green shading indicates wet conditions.
Crop Moisture Index Legend:
-3.00 and below (severely dry)
-2.00 to -2.99 (excessively dry)
-1.00 to -1.99 (abnormally dry)
-0.99 to +0.99 (mid-range)
+1.00 to +1.99 (abnormally moist)
+2.00 to +2.99 (wet)
+3.00 and above (excessively wet)
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Streamflow and Drought
Preliminary streamflow measurements by the United States Geological Survey reveal unusually low daily streamflows associated with the drought from the southern Great Lakes to the southern Appalachians during October. River stages were above normal during the month in the wet areas of the northern Plains and east coast. Explanation:
New record high for day
90th percentile
75th - 89th percentile
25th - 74th percentile
10th - 24th percentile
10th percentile
New record low for day
larger animated image More streamflow information can be found at the United States Geological Survey's web page.
Missouri Precipitation Deficit
Severe short-term drought occurred during October 1999 in the central Plains states, with Nebraska having the fifth driest October since 1895, Iowa the ninth driest October, Kansas 13th driest, and Missouri 18th driest. Conditions averaged statewide across Missouri have been dry for each of the last four months. In 1999, Missouri has had the 15th driest September-October, seventh driest August-October, and fourth driest July-October. The dryness of the last four months contrasts with the overall wet conditions of the previous twelve months and has resulted in a neutral (near zero) long-term Palmer drought index for the Show-Me state.
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Current and historical drought information can be found at the Web Page for the National Drought Mitigation Center. The Center monitors current droughts both in the United States and worldwide.Damage due to the drought has been summarized by NOAA and the Office of Global Programs in the Climatological Impacts section of the Climate Information Project. Crop impact information can be found at the USDA NASS (National Agricultural Statistics Service) and Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin pages. Drought statements by local National Weather Service Offices can be found at the NWS Hydrologic Information Center. Drought threat assessments and other information can be found at NOAA's Drought Information Center.
For more information, refer to ...References:
Thomas R. Karl and Albert J. Koscielny, 1982: "Drought in the United States: 1895-1981." Journal of Climatology, vol. 2, pp. 313-329.
Thomas R. Karl and Walter James Koss, 1984: "Regional and National Monthly, Seasonal, and Annual Temperature Weighted by Area, 1895-1983." Historical Climatology Series 4-3, National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, 38 pp.
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center is the world's largest active archive of weather data. The preliminary temperature and precipitation rankings are available from the center by calling: 828-271-4800.
Historical precipitation and temperature ranking maps are also available on the Internet at: http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/usa.html.
NOAA works closely with the academic and science communities on climate-related research projects to increase the understanding of El Niño and improve forecasting techniques. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center monitors, analyzes and predicts climate events ranging from weeks to seasons for the nation. NOAA also operates the network of data buoys and satellites that provide vital information about the ocean waters, and initiates research projects to improve future climate forecasts. The long lead climate outlooks are available on the Internet at: http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov.
For all climate questions other than questions concerning this report, please contact the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Services Division:
Climate Services DivisionFor further information on the historical climate perspective presented in this report, contact:
NOAA/National Climatic Data Center
151 Patton Avenue
Asheville, NC 28801-5001
fax: 828-271-4876
phone: 828-271-4800
email: ncdc.orders@noaa.gov
William Brown-or-
NOAA/National Climatic Data Center
151 Patton Avenue
Asheville, NC 28801-5001
fax: 828-271-4328
email: william.brown@noaa.gov
Mike Changery
NOAA/National Climatic Data Center
151 Patton Avenue
Asheville, NC 28801-5001
fax: 828-271-4328
email: mchangry@ncdc.noaa.gov
NCDC / Climate Monitoring / Climate of 1999 / Help
