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B?> ?&?  1 ?&? | ? 8~ @? ?I>>|?~??=>>x ?I<>x>~~|?p? '?I8>??~~>|x _?_?I>Ã?|?xx ? ?I> <>8xÇ8 ????I?8xx ?8??I?xcx?x ??x> ?~?~I??|?~>? ???~???I3>~?~|w ?<???I?i??ph 8|?I~x??~< ?xC?! By?ٿU/ں^!#! :.:.?.:?.?.:. ??.:./:./:/7;9t:{ &  ? ?  ;?1A~?@_}qp>v< |? x(|<8?@ <>?B8 u@8?cC?u<(~q~?u<|?q>>????u;x?U?|?? |2v<<>?u:8?>|??w:|?|>??w:8?|???w:a?|??w<`>|?>8?xu<?~>~>??<???u`<?P?>(p?|abO?@>bOx?????~?|???bOx???????|?|bO?x??? ??|?|bOx?????bO??pñbOǏ.??<??0bO???`@0?8pb~?x | WKb? ?~ ?~? ?~? ?~ ?~ ?~(??~(~6~ =   #   AXXTable1.Estimatedstatistical  significancebasedonthebest(left)andsecondbest(right)ARMAmodelsforvariousindicatorsrelatedtoclimateextremes.Thehypothesistestedisthattrendsthiscenturyarenotstationary. T!     7 XXdd7= XXdd=ӛ (#(#̜ m!9)%`|0A `4E   Nfmߛ  @7 @XXԀINDICESOFCLIMATECHANGE $ t    FORTHEUNITEDSTATES  `     #X X@#          Authors: (#(# ThomasR.Karl,̀RichardW.Knight̀DavidR.Easterling,and̀RobertG.Quaylè@ NOAA/NationalClimaticDataCenter@"151PattonAvenue@LLAsheville,NC288015001̀@#August3,1995̜̀Final,Revisedfor:BulletinoftheAmericanMeteorological $% МSociety,Vol.77,No.2,Feb.1996,pp279292. `% &   4&!' 7 XXdXXd7= XXdXXd=@ INDICESOFCLIMATECHANGEFORTHEUNITEDSTATES    @  &ABSTRACT  X AframeworkispresentedtoquantifyobservedchangesinclimatewithinthecontiguousUnitedStatesthroughthedevelopmentandanalysisoftwoindicesofclimatechange,aClimateExtremesIndex(CEI)andaU.S.GreenhouseClimateResponseIndex(GCRI).TheCEIisbasedonanaggregatesetofconventionalclimateextremeindicators,andtheGCRIiscomposedofindicatorsthatmeasurechangesintheclimateoftheU.S.thathavebeenprojectedtooccurasaresultofincreasedemissionsofgreenhousegases.TheCEIsupportsthenotionthattheclimateoftheU.S.hasbecomemoreextremeinrecentdecades,yetthemagnitudeandpersistenceofthechangesarenotnowlargeenoughtoconcludethattheincreaseinextremescouldnothavearisenfromaquasistationaryclimate.Nonetheless,ifimpactsduetoextremeeventsriseexponentiallywiththeindex,thentheincreaseisindeedquitesignificantinapracticalsense.Similarly,theTwentiethCenturyincreaseinU.S.GCRIisconsistentwiththeexpectedsignofchangeduetoanenhancedgreenhouseeffect.Theincreaseisunlikelytohavearisenduetochancealone(abouta5to10%chance).Still,theincreaseoftheGCRIisnotlargeenoughtounequivocallyrejectthepossibilitythattheincreaseintheGCRImayhaveresultedfromotherfactorsincludingnaturalclimatevariability,andthesimilarityinthesignofthechangeoftheGCRIandmodelprojectionssayslittleaboutthesensitivityoftheclimatesystemtothegreenhouseeffect.Bothindicesincreasedratherabruptlyduringthe1970s,atatimeofmajorcirculationchangesoverthePacificOceanandNorthAmerica.  \  = XXdXXd=Ӝ((#(#(1.Introduction   Hastheclimatechangedsignificantlyduringthecenturythatisabouttoend?Andifso,inwhatwaysandbyhowmuch?Climatologistsarestrugglingtoanswersuchquestions,notonlyforscientificinterests,butalsoforpolicymakers(IPCC,1995)andthepublicatlarge.AnswerstothesequestionsarefundamentaltodevelopingconfidenceaboutglobalandregionalprojectionsofclimateintothenextCentury.Suchconfidenceisimportantnotonlytoscientistsconcernedwithissuesofclimatesensitivitytoanthropogenicandnaturalclimateforcingsandfeedbacks,buttopolicymakers,nonspecialists,andthegeneralpublic.Theyallrequirecomprehensive,butintuitiveinformationthatallowsthemtounderstandthescientificbasisforconfidence,orlackthereof,inpresentunderstandingoftheclimatesystem.Inthisarticleourprimaryfocusrelatestotheproblemofsummarizingandpresentingacomplexsetofmultivariate,multidimensionalchangessuchthattheycanbereadilycomprehendedandusedinpolicydecisionsmadebynonspecialistsinthefield.WeselectedthecontiguousUnitedStatesasthefocusofanalysis.Thereasonsare:1)itisofspecialconcerntoU.S.citizensandU.S.policymakers,2)thechangesofclimatewithintheU.S.have p,'0 notbeengivenextensivecoverageinintergovernmentalornationalreportsfocusedonclimatechangeassessments(IPCC,1990,1992;NRC,1992),3)theerrorsandsystematicbiasesofthedatafromtheU.S.havebeenwellstudied(Karletal.,1986;KarlandWilliams,1987;Karletal.,1988;Quayleetal.1991;Karletal.1993a;Karletal.1993b;GroismanandEasterling,1994),and4)theclimaterecordsareofsufficientlengthsuchthathighfrequencyclimatevariabilityislesslikelytoobscurelowfrequencyclimatevariationsandchanges. 2.Data  @D TwentiethCenturychangesandvariationofprecipitationwithmonthlyresolutioncanbecalculatedfromtheNationalClimaticDataCentersclimatedivisiondatabase(GuttmanandQuayle,1995).Thisdatasetconsistsofthousandsoffirstorderandcooperativeweatherobservingsitesacrossthecountry,butonlyafractionofthesearecontinuedthrough1994.Althoughtherearelikelytobeprecipitationmeasurementbiasesateachofthesestations(Karletal.,1993a,b;GroismanandEasterling,1994),mainlyintheformofsolidprecipitationundercatch,thetimevaryingbiasesarelikelytobeconsiderablysmallerbecauseinthisdatabasemostofthesiteshavehadratherconsistentinstrumentation,e.g.,standardeightinchunshieldedgauges.Moreover, p,'` comparisonswithotherdatasets(Karletal.,1993a;GroismanandEasterling,1994)depictonlysmalldifferencesinprecipitationtrends.Nonetheless,Legates(1995)arguesthatduringmonthswithbothliquidandsolidprecipitation,asystematicchangeintheratioofliquidtosolidprecipitationcouldintroduceanundetectedtimevaryingbias.Moreworkremainstofullyassessthesignificanceofthispotentialbias,butrelatedstreamflowdata(LinsandMichaels,1994;Lettenmaier,1994)wouldsuggestthatsuchabiasisunlikelytoadverselyaffectϜthisassessmentofprecipitationtrendsduringtheTwentiethCentury.  Acommontoolusedtoquantify  longtermmoistureanomaliesintheU.S.isthePalmerDroughtSeverityIndexorPDSI.ThePDSIcategorizesmoistureconditionsinincreasingorderofintensityasnearnormal;mildtomoderate;severe;orextremefordroughtorwetness.ThePDSIisaffectedbybothlongtermmoistureshortagesandexcesses,andbyvariabilityoftemperaturedrivenevaporationfromsoilsandtranspiration(releaseofwatervapor)fromplants.Sincewarmerconditionsarecapableofevaporatingmorewaterfromtheearth'ssurface,bothtemperatureandprecipitationaffectthedroughtindex,buttemperatureanomaliesarelessafactorthandirectchangesinprecipitation. p,'0 TheNCDCclimatedivisionprecipitationandtemperaturedatabaseareusedtocalculatethePDSI(Karl,1986).TwentiethCenturychangesofmeanmaximumandminimumtemperaturewithmonthlyresolutionarecalculatedfromtheU.S.HistoricalClimatologyNetwork[HCN](Karletal.,1990).Thisdatabasehasover1200stationswithmanystationsbeginninginthelateNineteenthorearlyTwentiethCenturies.Over600continuouswelldistributedobservingsitesacrosstheU.S.wereselectedbasedonthenumberofpotentialdiscontinuities(anychangeininstrumentsiting,location,orinstrumenttype),theconsistencyofthetrendswithnearbystations,thepercentofmissingdata,andthewidthoftheconfidenceintervaloftheadjustmentappliedtothedataandtherecordlength(Karletal.,1990).Eachstationusedwasadjusted:aprioradjustments N includedobservingtimebiases(Karletal.,1986),urbanheatislandeffects(Karletal.,1988),andthebiasintroducedbytheintroductionofthemaximumminimumthermistoranditsinstrumentshelter(Quayleetal.,1991);aposterior ($xV adjustmentsincludedstation $L W andinstrumentchanges(KarlandWilliams,1987).Dailychangesofprecipitationwerederivedfromasubset(131)oftheHCNstationswithsupplementalnonHCNstationsintheWestwherecoveragewassparse.Thesupplemental p,'` stationswereselectedoutsideofurbanareasandhaveconsistentobservingtimes,whereasstationsintheHCNhadalimitednumberofrandom(notsystematic)changesinobservingtimes(Hughesetal.,1992). 3.Statisticalmethods Foreachindicatororindex  '  1      ׀we    testthehypothesisthatthemagnitudeoftheobservedtrendisabyproductofaquasistationaryclimate.Thetermquasistationaryisusedtoreflectthenotionthatoververylongtimescales(thousandsofyears)noclimateregimeislikelytobestationary.Thealternatehypothesisisthattheobservedtrendrepresentsachangingclimate.Eachtimeseriesisfittoanautoregressivemovingaverage(ARMA)modelofmaximumorder4(BoxandJenkins,1976).Suchamodelcanaccountforawidevarietyofstationary(andapparentnonstationary)processes(Priestly,1981),includingperiodicities,persistentfluctuations,quasiperiodicities,etc.Themodelcanbewrittenintheform:̀pq(1)Yt=-iYt1+jatj+ ($x& at, $L ' Ѐi=1j=1 % !( whereYtisthevalueofthe x'"* timeseriesattimet;-iis L(#+ theithautoregressive(AR) + coefficient;jisthejth , movingaverage(MA)coefficient;andatisrandom ,|. noiseattimet.Theorderof P/ themodelisexpressedasp,qandrepresentedasARMA(p,q).Thedistributionofatis | 2 normalwithmeanzeroandstandarddeviation%a(i.e.,the $ t4 standarddeviationoftherandomnoise).Whenpandqarezerothemodelrepresentsawhitenoiseoruncorrelatedserialprocess.ARMA(0,q)modelscanbecharacterizedashavingfinitepersistence,i.e.,therandomnoiseinthemodelpersistsforexactlyqobservations.BycomparisonARMA(p,0)modelscanbecharacterizedashavinginfinite,butgeometricallydecayingpersistenceoftherandomnoisecomponent.Karl(1988)containsmoredetailsontheclimatologicalapplicationsofthismodel.TheBayesianInformationCriterion(BIC)wasusedtoselecttheappropriateorderofthemodel(Katz,1982).TheBICbalancesthegoodnessoffitagainstthecomplexity(theorder)ofthemodel.ThemodelwiththesmallestBICispreferred.ThesensitivityofourresultsistestedbyalsoconsideringthemodelwiththesecondsmallestBIC.Modelswereconstrainedsuchthat x'"U p+q4,withhigherordermodels L(#V testedonlyifBICreachedaminimumatmodelorder4.Thisassumptionisconsistentwiththenotionthathighlycomplexstatisticalmodelsarelikely p,'[ tooverfittheobservations(i.e.attachtoomuchsignificancetothenoisewithinthedata).Thetrendisremovedfromeachtimeseriespriortofittingthemodel.Thisisnecessarybecauseourinterestwillbeinusingthemodeltosimulateastationaryprocessandcomparethistotheobservedtrends.Oncetheappropriatemodelisidentifiedforeachindicatororindex,thetrendoftheobservedtimeseriesiscomparedwithtrendscalculatedfrom1000MonteCarlosimulationsfromgeneratedtimeseriesofanARMAmodel.Eachtimeserieshasthesamenumberofdiscretevaluesasdoestheobservedindicatororindexofinterest.Thefractionoftimetheobservedtrendexceedsthosecalculatedfromthesimulatedseriesisusedasameasureofthestatisticalsignificanceoftheobservedtrend.Numerousindicatorsareconsidered,andalthoughweprovideestimatesoftheirstatisticalsignificance,theirinterpretationcansometimesbecomedifficult.Thisisbecauseasmoreandmoreindicatorsareanalyzeditislikelythatsomewillcontainunusualtrendssimplyduetochance.Thisisoneoftheprimemotivationsfordevelopinganindexwhichintegratesavarietyofclimatechangeindicators.  )D%- ̜ p,'0 Ї4.Background ̜u&.?/+p|0B9 B `h Ex b B V -uߛAreaaveragedtotalprecipitationhasvariedfromdecadetodecade(Fig.1).ϜThisareaaveragedvalueisderivedfromareaweightingthetotalannualprecipitationfromeachofthe344climatedivisionsacrosstheU.S.Althoughthereisanabsenceofamonotonicallyincreasingtrend,afterabout1970precipitationhastendedtoremainabovetheTwentiethCenturymean,andhasaveragedabout5%morethanintheprevious70years.Suchanincreasehintsatachangeinclimate.Formalstatisticalanalysissuggeststhatthechangeisunusual,butstillthereisabouta10%chancethatsuchachangecouldarisefromaquasistationaryclimatewithoutanyreallongtermchanges.Theendofcenturyincreaseismainlydueto "(#"(#d(#d(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(#!p,'`"(#"(# ! tt etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet etet ttetetincreasesduringthesecondhalfofeachyear,particularlyduringtheautumn.Onaregionalbasis(Fig.2)weseethattheincreaseiswidespreadwithintheU.S.,andlocalincreasesofnearly20%arenotuncommon.Theincreaseisnotapparenteverywherehowever,assomestateslikeCalifornia,Montana,Wyoming,NorthDakota,Maine,NewHampshire,Vermont,andpartsofthesoutheasthavehaddecreasesinannualϜprecipitation.u)-?/+p|0& `, E &: `f0 u߀uhj?/+p|0$(H `fE$s$((H\ X($JuߛAsisthecasewithprecipitation,meantemperaturesacrosstheU.S.havenotmonotonicallyincreasedduringthepresentcentury(Fig.3),althoughalineartrendequatestoariseofabout0.4$C/100yr.Sucha T#%  tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt p,'0tt simpleinterpretationofmeantemperaturechangeintheU.S.wouldbeagrossoversimplification.Therecordrevealsasharpriseintemperatureduringthe1930sandamodestcoolingfromthe1950stothe1970s,atwhichtimethetemperatureincreased,andhassinceremainedashighassomeofthehightemperaturesrecordedduringthemajordroughtsofthe1930s.However,themorerecentwarmthisaccompaniedbyrelativelyhighamountsofprecipitation,unlikethedry1930s.AlthoughU.S.temperatureshavesubstantiallyincreased,theincreasebyitselfisneitherlargeenough,nortemporallyconsistentenough,tocompletelydismissthenotion(around1chancein20)thatthechangemayhavearisenduetopurelyrandomnaturalvariations.Theincreaseinannualtemperaturesafterthe1970sismainlytheresultofsignificantincreasesoftemperatureduringthefirstsixmonthsoftheyear(winterandspring).Temperaturesduringsummerandautumnhavechangedlittleafterdroppingfromthewarm1930s.̛̀OnaregionalbasistheareasnorthandwestofanarcfromVirginiathroughIllinoistoTexascontributemosttotheincreaseofannualaveragenationwidetemperatures(Fig.4),whilethesoutheastshowsmostlycooling.Therehasbeenatendencyforsmaller p,'` temperatureincreasestobecoincidentwiththelargerpositivetrendsofprecipitationandassociatedcirculationchanges(TrenberthandHurrell,1994).  $ М5.IndicatorsofclimatechangefortheU.S.  P  МP"u/6?/+p|0(H `fE7$((H\H XU#JuP"Q"P"u/6?/+p|0(H `fE7$((H\H XU#JuP"Q"TwentiethCenturychangesinavarietyofclimateindicatorsthatrepresentvariousaspectsofclimatearepresentedinthenexttwosubsections.Eachindicatorhasbeenselectedbasedonitsreliability,lengthofrecord,updateability,anditsrelevancetochangesinclimateextremesorprojectedclimateresponsesduetoincreasinganthropogenicgreenhousegases. a)Extremes  d R"u25?/+p|0\ 2 ` Es 2 F (. uR"Animportantaspectofclimateextremesrelatestoextremedroughtsandmoisturesurpluses.TocharacterizelongtermvariationsofdroughtorwetnessitispossibletocalculatetheproportionoftheU.S.underconditionswithsevereandextreme(whichwesimplycharacterizeas"severe")droughtormoisturesurplus,asdefinedbythePalmerDroughtSeverityIndex(PDSI).Considerabledecadalvariabilityofdroughtandwetnessisrevealed(Fig.5).Thedroughtsofthe1930sand1950sstandoutintheuppercurveasremarkableevents.During1934,theworstyear,onaveragenearly50%ofthecountrywasinseveredrought; p,'0 eventhespringandsummerdroughtof1988isdwarfedbycomparison.Sinceabout1970however,moreofthecountryhastendedtoremainexcessivelywet:over30%ofthecountryhasexperiencedaseveremoisturesurplusforatleastoneyearineachofthepastthreedecades.̛ThecatastrophicsummertimefloodingoftheMississippiRiveranditstributariesduring1993isanobviousxvxB2.p|0I& ` > E&Axߛexampleoftheseseveremoisturesurplusevents,butTable1indicatesthatthereisstillagoodchance(about25%)thatthetrendtowardincreasedfrequencyofseveremoistureR" deded(#d(# dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede dededede!p,'`dede !R"T"R"u25?/+p|0 2 ` Eu 2 F * . uR"T"V"T"u25?/+p|0j(H ` Ej( (H\\ uߛT"V"V"u25?/+p|03(H ` E( (H\ uߛ tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt ttttV"hasarisenfromaquasistationaryclimatewithexponentiallydecayingpersistence.̜S"u8:?/+p|0$J `pEy$ $J^ \.P uS"Thenationaleffectsofalongtermmoisturedeficitorsurplusaregenerallyproportionaltothearealcoverageineitherseveredroughtorinseveremoisturesurplus.Ifweconsiderthesumoftheproportionofthecountryineitheroftheseseverecategoriesnosystematictrendsareevidentinthepresentcentury,althoughduringthepastfewdecades,therehasbeenatendencyforagreaterportionofthecountryS"u8:?/+p|0~$J `pE$ $J^ \7fP uߛS"tobeeitherinseveredroughtorseveremoistureexcess.̜u;>?/+p|0(H `bE"(d (H\ Qz" uߛ tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt p,'0tt  "(#"(#d(#d(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# d(#d(#"(#"(#Aswithdroughtandexcessivemoisture,portionsofthecountrycanbeextremelycoldatthesametimethatothersareunusuallywarm.ThisisactuallyafairlycommonoccurrencebecausetheconterminousU.S.veryroughlyspanshalftheaveragelongitudinalextentofastationaryRossbywave,e.g,thePacificNorthAmericanteleconnectionpattern,thusplacingonepartofthecountryinsoutherlyflowandtheotherinnortherlyflow.Thisleadstoanaveragenationaltemperaturethatisnearnormal.Hence,wefocusontemperatureindicatorsthatcancapturechangesinunusuallycoldorwarmweather,evenwhenaveragenationaltemperaturesarenearnormal.Also,abnormallyhighdaytimemaximumtemperaturescanoccurwhilenighttimetemperaturesremainbelownormal(thisisnotusuallythecasehowever),orviceversa.Moreover,anincrease(decrease)oftemperaturecanbeasymmetricinthetailsoftheϜdistribution.Forexample,thewarmthofthe1930sisbetterreflectedbytheareaofthe p,'`  tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt tttt ttttcountryaffectedbymuchaboveu?A?/+p|0(H `vE((H\ X[|Juߛnormal '  2      כannualdailymaximum $ t  temperatures(Fig.6)comparedwiththepercentofthecountryaffectedbymuchabovenormalannualminimumtemperatures(Fig.7).Fig.7alsoshowsthattheproportionoftheU.S.withmuchbelownormalmeanannualdailyminimumtemperatureshasbeensustainedatlowlevelssincethelate1970swithonly5to10%chancethattheoveralldecreaseinareaaffectedbytheseconditionswouldoccurinastationaryclimate(Table1).Thisisincontrasttoonlya1to2%chanceformuchbelownormalconditionsthemaximumtemperature(Fig.6;Table1).Therecentincreaseoftheminimumtemperaturerelativetomaximumtemperaturehasbeendirectlyrelatedtoanobservedincreaseincloudamountoverthepastseveraldecades(Planticoetal.,1990).Thefractionofthecountrywithanomalousmeanmonthlymaximumorminimum $L ' temperatures,haschangedlittleduringtheTwentiethCentury.ThetendencyforalargerareaoftheU.S.tohave L(#+ muchbelownormaltemperaturesintheearlypartofthecenturyhasbeenbalancedbytheoppositecategoryofmuchabovenormaltemperaturesinthelastfewdecades.̜Ananalysisofchangesinextremeswouldbeincompletewithoutconsiderationofchangesindailyprecipitationevents.Theproportionofthecountrywithamuchgreaterthannormalnumberofwetdays(Fig.8)hasincreasedmuchmorethanwouldbeexpectedinastationaryclimate(Table1).ThisisespeciallyapparentϜbetween1910and1940andafterabout1970.ThelatterincreasebearssomesimilaritytotheincreaseoftotalprecipitationovertheU.S.(Fig.1).MeanwhiletheproportionoftheU.S.withamuchgreaterthannormalnumberofdrydayshasshownlittleoverallchange.Occasionally,forcertainareasandtimesoftheyear,therearetoofewwetdaysinagivenmonthtoestablishanuppertenpercentile.Theseareasarenotincluded.̜uBD? /+p|0u(H `E%"(d (H\A!  uߛ "(#"(#d(#d(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(#!p,'["(#"(# !Theproportionofthecountrythathashadamuchgreaterthannormalamountofprecipitationderivedfromextremelyheavy(>50.8mmor2inches)1dayprecipitationevents(Fig.9)canbereliablycalculatedatleastbackto1910.SimilartoFig.8,insomeregionsandforcertainmonthsoftheyear,1dayprecipitationeventsexceeding50.8mmneveroccure.g.,theWestinsummer.Theseareasandmonthsoftheyeararenotincludedintheindicator.Itisclear(Fig.9)thatduringthepresentcenturytherehasbeenasteadyincreaseintheareaoftheU.S.affectedbyextremeprecipitationevents.Itisunlikely(lessthan1chancein1000)thatsuchalargechangecouldoccurinaquasistationaryclimate(Table1).Othermeasuresofhighfrequencyextremeeventswerealsoconsidered,suchasthefrequencyofheatwavesandcoldwaves,freezes,strongwinds,tropicalcyclones,etc.,butnotincludedintheCEIatthistime.Withappropriatedata,theseadditionalmeasurescouldeasilybeused,butexistingdatasetsrequireconsiderablymoreattentionwithrespecttohomogeneity.ϜEventodayhowever,thefrequencyofdailytemperatureaboveagiventhresholdcannotbereliablycalculatedforlargeportionsoftheUSA.Properadjustmentsforchangingobservingtimesatdailyresolutionshavenotbeendeveloped.Fortunately,there p,'0 isahighcorrelationbetweenmuchbelow(orabove)normalconditionsandcoldwaves(heatwaves)thatlastseveraldays.Theduration,intensity,andarealextentoftropicalandextratropicalcyclonesalsoϜrequiremorehomogeneityϜassessment,asdotheϜfrequenciesoftornadoesandhail.   H: b.Greenhouseresponse   < Ѐ̜W"uEG? /+p|0B  `E" H _\"V^  uW"Effortstodetecttheeffectsofgreenhousegaswarmingarebeststudiedthroughglobalanalyses(Karl,1993).Suchanalyseshavebeenmadeandassessedinbothintergovernmental(IPCC,1990;1992;1995)andnationalreports(NRC,1992).Allofthesecommissionedassessmentshaveconcludedthatobservedchangesinglobalclimatearenotyetsufficientlylargetobeascribedunequivocallytoanthropogenicincreasesofgreenhousegases;althoughtheyalsosuggestthattheanthropogenicgreenhouseeffectisthemostprobablecausefortheglobaltemperatureincreaseofnearly0.5$Cduringthepast  (R W" "(#"(#d(#d(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(# "(#"(#"(#"(#!p,'`"(#"(# !W"W"uEG? /+p|0  `En H #4V^  uߜW"100orsoyears.Thequestionariseshowever,whetherthereisanyevidencetosuggestthattheexpectedeffectsofanticipatedgreenhousewarmingarealreadyaffectingtheclimateoftheUnitedStates.AnumberofprojectionshavebeenmadethatareexpectedtoaffectlargecontinentalϜregionsinthemidtohighlatitudes,suchastheUSA(IPCC,1990;1992;1995).Thesechanges,inroughorderofconfidenceintheprojections(IPCC,1990;1992;1995)include:0    Anincreaseofmean  surfacetemperature.|   tt 0    Anincreasein l precipitation,primarilyinthecoldseason. tt |  0    Moresevereandlonger 8 lastingdroughts,especiallyduringthewarmseason(MaySep.). tt u}  0    Asmall,butsignificantly 8 greaterincreaseofnighttimetemperaturecomparedwithdaytimeϜtemperature. tt D~  0    Agreaterportionof \ precipitationderivedfromheavyconvectiverainfall(showersorthundershowers)comparedwithgentler,longerlastingrainfalls. tt &  0    Adecreaseinthedayto ($x& dayvariabilityoftemperature. tt 6