Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) Data

Storms in need of reanalysis

Certainty of storm intensity

IBTrACS data include the intensity estimates from available agencies. The range in the estimates of maximum sustained winds from between the agencies provides a measure in how certain we can be in the intensity record of said storm.

To this end, the CycloneCenter.org project is recruiting the help of citizen scientists for help.

The following is a listing of the least certain storms during the HURSAT period of record. It is hoped that this listing will spur a reanalysis of these storms.

More information on how storm certainty was calculated can be found in Knapp et al. (BAMS, 2009)

Key: STORM NAME (Num) (YEAR)

  • Num = Cummulative ranking of all storms and all basins

Least certain storms during HURSAT record

The following are the 25 storms for each basin with the most interagency variaibility during the HURSAT record.

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 YVETTE (1) (1992) SINA (64) (1990) ALIBERA (4) (1989)
2 JOAN (2) (1997) KINA (87) (1992) AGNIELLE (11) (1995)
3 ISA (3) (1997) ABIGAIL (117) (1982) IRNA (12) (1992)
4 IVAN (8) (1997) HARRY (119) (1989) HANITRA (19) (1989)
5 ANGELA (9) (1995) PREMA (137) (1993) DELIFINA (41) (1986)
6 ELSIE (10) (1992) ANNE (146) (1988) ALEXANDRA (49) (1991)
7 DALE (13) (1996) 22P (147) (1979) ELSIE (54) (1987)
8 NESTOR (14) (1997) FRAN (181) (1992) 07S (56) (1980)
9 MIKE (15) (1990) OLAF (190) (2005) EDME (61) (1989)
10 KEITH (17) (1997) VAUGHAN (208) (2000) GASITAO (75) (1988)
11 FENGSHEN (20) (2002) REWA (212) (1993) FARIDA (76) (1992)
12 WARD (21) (1995) VICTOR (241) (1998) ITELLE (78) (1996)
13 FAXAI (21) (2001) DRENA (242) (1997) BELLA (84) (1991)
14 GAY (22) (1989) 13P (247) (1979) DOAZA (86) (1988)
15 HERB (23) (1996) VAL (255) (1991) EVRINA (91) (1999)
16 OMAR (24) (1992) NANCY (257) (2005) NEVILLE (97) (1992)
17 ED (25) (1993) ESAU (271) (1992) HUBERT (102) (1985)
18 LUPIT (26) (2003) JOY (285) (1990) ALISON (102) (1986)
19 DIANMU (27) (2004) KATRINA (289) (1998) ANACELLE (103) (1998)
20 EVE (28) (1996) AIVU (292) (1989) GERALDA (106) (1994)
21 SKIP (29) (1988) AMI (306) (2003) DAVINA (112) (1999)
22 MITAG (30) (2002) NAMU (309) (1986) JOURDANNE (113) (1993)
23 BABS (31) (1998) ODETTE (312) (1985) HARRIET (115) (1992)
24 KUJIRA (32) (2003) OLIVER (315) (1993) GRETELLE (116) (1997)
25 SALLY (33) (1996) 17P (322) (1980) ERINESTA (122) (1986)

By year, the least Certain storms during HURSAT record

The following lists the 3 storms with the most variaibility by year and basin (numbers in parentheses are overall variability ranking).

Select a year 1978 1979
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009



West Pacific South Pacific South Indian

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1978

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 VIOLA (200) 20P (656) 16S (1403)
2 FAYE (260) 21P (877) 13S (1416)
3 AGNES (268) 32P (1008) 29S (1468)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1979

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 VERA (210) 22P (147) 19S (197)
2 JUDY (262) 13P (247) 10S (1001)
3 TIP (281) 16P (526) 20S (1056)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1980

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 WYNNE (229) 17P (322) 07S (56)
2 KIM (294) 14P (463) 16S (219)
3 PERCY (327) 28P (742) 11S (339)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1981

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 ELSIE (234) FREDA (621) MABEL (538)
2 HAZEN (269) EDDIE (689) PADDY (677)
3 IRMA (328) DAMAN (829) OLGA (942)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1982

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 ELLIS (343) ABIGAIL (117) IAN (500)
2 MAC (366) DOMINIC (380) HARRIET (671)
3 ANDY (432) BRUNO (648) ARMELLE (739)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1983

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 FORREST (183) ELINOR (580) NAOMI (676)
2 MARGE (207) REWA (800) ELINAH (728)
3 ABBY (324) OSCAR (962) DADAFY (927)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1984

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 IKE (135) JIM (470) ANDRY (154)
2 BILL (176) GRACE (824) FANJA (288)
3 VANESSA (194) INGRID (894) WILLY (344)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1985

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 DOT (178) ODETTE (312) HUBERT (102)
2 FAY (310) NIGEL (451) ISOBEL (128)
3 HAL (388) HINA (537) MARGOT (141)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1986

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 PEGGY (174) NAMU (309) DELIFINA (41)
2 LOLA (230) WINIFRED (361) ALISON (102)
3 KEN (233) IMA (425) ERINESTA (122)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1987

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 NINA (45) UMA (391) ELSIE (54)
2 LYNN (155) SALLY (394) CONNIE (156)
3 HOLLY (209) BLANCH (590) ALININA (354)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1988

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 SKIP (29) ANNE (146) GASITAO (75)
2 NELSON (63) CHARLIE (435) DOAZA (86)
3 RUBY (144) AGI (525) HELY (336)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1989

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 GAY (22) HARRY (119) HANITRA (19)
2 ANGELA (51) AIVU (292) EDME (61)
3 IRMA (65) LILI (409) BARISAONA (163)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1990

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 MIKE (15) NANCY (456) ALIBERA (4)
2 FLO (83) OFA (507) SAM (173)
3 PAGE (100) RAE (674) CEZERA (259)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1991

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 YURI (47) SINA (64) BELLA (84)
2 SETH (82) JOY (285) DEBRA (198)
3 WALT (85) LISA (667) ELMA (297)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1992

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 YVETTE (1) FRAN (181) IRNA (12)
2 ELSIE (10) VAL (255) ALEXANDRA (49)
3 OMAR (24) ESAU (271) FARIDA (76)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1993

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 ED (25) KINA (87) JOURDANNE (113)
2 KORYN (72) PREMA (137) FINELLA (286)
3 IRA (107) OLIVER (315) KONITA (373)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1994

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 DOUG (53) REWA (212) GERALDA (106)
2 WILDA (68) THOMAS (483) LITANNE (186)
3 ZELDA (101) SARAH (556) CECILIA (282)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1995

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 ANGELA (9) AGNES (515) KYLIE (126)
2 WARD (21) WARREN (644) MARLENE (291)
3 RYAN (48) VIOLET (926) ALBERTINE (320)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1996

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 DALE (13) BETI (521) AGNIELLE (11)
2 HERB (23) JACOB (794) ITELLE (78)
3 EVE (28) ETHEL (1101) HANSELLA (160)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1997

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 JOAN (2) DRENA (242) GRETELLE (116)
2 ISA (3) KELI (340) BELLAMINE (131)
3 IVAN (8) JUSTIN (390) HELINDA (350)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1998

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 BABS (31) VICTOR (241) ANACELLE (103)
2 ZEB (52) KATRINA (289) ELSIE (170)
3 REX (81) RON (461) TIFFANY (189)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 1999

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 BART (40) DANI (337) EVRINA (91)
2 MAGGIE (105) HALI (352) DAVINA (112)
3 DAN (152) THELMA (368) BIRENDA (436)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 2000

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 DAMRCY (38) VAUGHAN (208) NORMAN (314)
2 SAOMAI (58) STEVE (437) PAUL (374)
3 SHANSHAN (90) TESSI (556) KIRRILY (451)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 2001

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 FAXAI (21) SAM (727) BINDU (508)
2 PODUL (50) PAULA (732) ANDO (509)
3 MAN-YI (66) SOSE (1097) EVARISTE (649)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 2002

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 FENGSHEN (20) BERNIE (1169) HARY (355)
2 MITAG (30) TRINA (1234) DIANNE (437)
3 PHANFONE (37) WAKA (1279) DINA (518)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 2003

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 LUPIT (26) AMI (306) KALUNDE (362)
2 KUJIRA (32) DOVI (406) JAPHET (443)
3 MAEMI (35) ZOE (408) CRAIG (540)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 2004

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 DIANMU (27) HETA (417) FRANK (275)
2 CHABA (34) IVY (590) ITSENG (407)
3 SUDAL (43) FAY (850) GAFILO (485)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 2005

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 NABI (60) OLAF (190) BENTO (339)
2 LONGWANG (109) NANCY (257) CHAMBO (428)
3 NESAT (138) INGRID (347) ERNEST (805)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 2006

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 XANGSANE (36) MONICA (449) CARINA (359)
2 YAGI (120) LARRY (672) ALVIN (558)
3 CHANCHU (141) KATE (990) CLARE (701)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 2007

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 SEPAT (133) XAVIER (623) BONDO (177)
2 YUTU (186) PIERRE (838) INDLALA (423)
3 USAGI (204) BECKY (1111) GAMEDE (468)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 2008

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 RAMMASUN (231) GENE (524) IVAN (250)
2 SINLAKU (239) FUNA (811) HONDO (527)
3 HAGUPIT (245) DAMAN (818) KAMBA (559)

top of page 3 least certain storms for 2009

West Pacific South Pacific South Indian
1 NIDA (58) HAMISH (399) GAEL (444)
2 MELOR (80) JASPER (967) BILLY (647)
3 LUPIT (98) LIN (1343) FANELE (752)
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